1:48 Hereford

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Jerseygeordie KTB Selection57/100

   Form 32 · Harry Derham · Paul O'Brien

   Family: full brother to Jerriais (1 win from 9 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Jerseygeordie is a useful performer who has shown his best form with a pair of placed efforts this season. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before while wearing first-time headgear. Harry Derham has a 19% strike rate at Hereford from 16 runs and Paul O'Brien has a 13% strike rate at the track from 46 rides in line with his record elsewhere. The horse holds an official rating of 102 and his recent form figures read 32. As a full brother to Jerriais who won once from nine runs, with the dam having produced two other runners including one winner, he brings the strongest piece of placed form to the table. His prominent run style, racing handily on or close to the lead, should see him well placed in a genuinely-run race.

2. 2Nicolai50/100

   Form P56 · Neil Mulholland · Dylan Johnston

   Nicolai is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts this year after a poor debut. The trainer has a 20% strike rate here from 143 runs, above their 13% elsewhere, while the jockey records a 13% strike rate from 23 rides at the track in line with his overall figure. He is unproven on good to firm and now drops back in trip having failed to trouble the judge in one previous run at this distance. With recent form figures of P56 and an official rating of 61, he has plenty to find on the figures. His held-up run style, usually producing his effort late with high confidence, means he will need the race to unfold favourably off what should be a genuine gallop.

3. 3Roly Mo48/100

   Form P · Mrs Jane Williams · Ciaran Gethings

   Family: the dam has had 2 other runners, none of them a winner.

   Roly Mo has only one run behind him and was pulled up on debut so there is almost nothing to go on. The yard has a 21% strike rate at Hereford from 38 runs which is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey is operating at 9% from 81 rides here which matches his overall figure. A half-brother to two non-winners adds little encouragement and the trip looks no better than a question mark after one unsuccessful attempt. His prominent run style is based on limited evidence with low confidence. With no official rating and recent form reading P, he makes his second start in a race where several others have shown more.

4. 4Houndswood Willow47/100

   Form 325 · Tom Dascombe · David Bass

   Houndswood Willow is a useful performer who has posted solid recent form figures of 325 and holds an official rating of 95. This is his first run at Hereford with no prior course experience, and he has shown no win or place from one start on good to firm going. The trainer has only one run at the track so the sample is too small to judge while the jockey operates at a 17% strike rate here which is in line with his record elsewhere. His prominent run style sees him race handily on or close to the lead with high confidence, which should suit the expected pace. He brings the second-highest official rating to proceedings and should be involved if the ground does not prove against him.

5. 5Sapphire Dream46/100

   Form 5 · Jo Davis · Gavin Sheehan

   Sapphire Dream has shown little in 14 starts and arrives off the back of a modest fifth last time. The trainer's 3% strike rate at Hereford is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey's 19% strike rate here matches his overall figure. Dropping back in trip is a fresh question and the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground. With recent form reading 5, he has work to do on the bare numbers. His held-up run style, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence, could come into play if the prominent horses go hard early in this genuinely-run contest.

6. 6Zipwire45/100

   J. S. Moore · Bradley Harris(3)

   Zipwire has 20 runs on the clock yet remains unexposed at this trip having stepped up from 1m1½f. The yard records an 11% strike rate at Hereford while the 3lb-claiming jockey is operating at 25% here from 12 rides. He has shown nothing on good to firm ground in four previous attempts and steps up in class.

7. 7Talka43/100

   Form R · Donald McCain · Kielan Woods

   Talka was brought down on his only start so far and now tries first-time headgear. His front-running style could see him set the pace in a race expected to be genuinely run. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Hereford from 143 runs and the jockey records 11% from 91 rides here.

8. 8Mick The Hat41/100

   Bernard Llewellyn · Jack Tudor

   Mick The Hat steps up in class having shown little thus far. He typically settles in midfield and has shown no win or place from one start on good to firm. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Hereford from 237 runs while the jockey operates at 10% from 88 rides here.

9. 9Charles Darnay39/100

   James Owen · Jonathan Burke

   Family: half-brother to Land Of Oz (6 wins from 14 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Charles Darnay is a half-brother to Land Of Oz who won six times from 14 runs, with the dam having produced seven other runners including three winners. He races prominently with high confidence. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Hereford from 16 runs while the jockey records 7% from 139 rides here and he remains unproven on good to firm.

10. 10Guildhall Graduate36/100

    Form 54 · Katy Price · Shane Quinlan(3)

    Guildhall Graduate has shown only modest form in two runs this year after a busy juvenile campaign. He has been beaten on his only attempt at this trip and on good to firm ground, so both the distance and the surface raise fresh questions. The trainer and jockey both record 6% and 4% strike rates at Hereford that sit in line with their figures elsewhere.