12:25 Redcar
This Class 3 novice stakes over 7f at Redcar on soft ground brings together an 11-runner field of mostly unexposed two-year-olds, several of whom are making their second or third start while a clutch of interesting newcomers add depth. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals separated by only a handful of points, underlining the open nature of the contest on pedigree and limited racecourse evidence. Overall the numbers point to a race where experience and the ability to handle the testing conditions will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape expected and high confidence attached, a front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types from the outset. Procyon and Arctic Force are both noted as prominent runners while Olympiacos tends to make the running, setting up what should be a fair test at this trip. The key question is which of the forward-going types can maintain the gallop on the soft surface while the held-up runners such as Sayaarr, Leabank and Eagles Eternal look to pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Procyon KTB Selection54/100
Procyon showed fair promise when finishing third on his debut over this trip. As a half-brother to Group 2 winner Dame Malliot, he is bred to be smart and comes from a dam that has already produced five winners from six runners to race. William Haggas has a 25% strike rate at Redcar from 230 runs, a marked improvement on their 20% at other tracks, while James Doyle posts a 21% strike rate here from 38 rides. The colt is dropping in class and usually races handily on or close to the lead, though with only one run on the clock and no experience on soft ground the form must be treated with caution. He is the KTB Selection.
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2Sayaarr50/100
Sayaarr showed little when finishing ninth of nine on his debut. He is a half-brother to a quick two-year-old winner and the dam has produced one winner from her three other runners to race. Edward Bethell operates at a 23% strike rate at Redcar from 108 runs, well above their 15% elsewhere, and Oisin Orr has an 18% strike rate here from 121 rides. Usually held up to produce his effort late, the colt remains unproven on soft ground with only one previous run, leaving the form too thin to read with any real confidence.
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3Arctic Force50/100
Arctic Force showed only modest form when finishing sixth on his debut over this trip. A full brother to Group 3 winner Thunder Kiss, he has a pedigree that suggests better should come though the small sample makes any firm judgement tentative. The dam has produced three winners from her four other runners to race. K R Burke has an 11% strike rate at Redcar from 423 runs while Shane Foley has no recorded rides at the track. Usually prominent, he is dropping in class but remains unproven on soft ground.
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4Olympiacos48/100
Olympiacos is a lightly raced colt with two runs at this trip so far, finishing sixth then third. He is a half-brother to Group 3 winner King Malpic and the dam has already produced three winners from five other runners to race. Charlie Johnston has a 13% strike rate at Redcar from 82 runs while Rowan Scott is on 9% from 243 rides here, both in line with their records elsewhere. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, the small sample means this one must be read with caution despite being unproven on soft ground.
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5Hal'way The Lads47/100
Hal'way The Lads is a newcomer whose half-brother Enola Grey won seven times from 67 runs and whose dam has produced three winners from three runners to race. Gemma Tutty has a 9% strike rate at Redcar from 58 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while Billy Garritty posts a 12% strike rate here from 94 rides, also matching his overall figure. By Minzaal, who has a 13% overall win rate from 235 runners, the colt has no racecourse form and the data confidence is low so his prospects rest entirely on pedigree and these connections.
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6Raguel47/100
Raguel is a newcomer whose pedigree carries real interest as a half-brother to Group 1 winner Shaquille. The dam has produced two winners from five other runners to race and the colt cost a useful sum as a yearling. Trainer and jockey both operate at their standard level around Redcar with 8% and 11% strike rates respectively yet the overall data confidence remains low for a debutant.
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7Leabank45/100
Leabank showed little on debut when finishing sixth of 11 over this trip here on soft ground. The yard's 8% strike rate at Redcar is in line with their record elsewhere while the 3lb claimer is also operating at his usual 8% level for the track. With only one run in the book and a low data confidence this is very much a watching brief.
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8Lady Mombasa43/100
Lady Mombasa is a newcomer whose half-sister The Thin Blue Line won six times from 46 runs and whose dam has already produced one other winner. The yard's 6% strike rate at Redcar from 411 runs sits below their 9% at other tracks. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the picture remains tentative.
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9Binksy Boy37/100
Binksy Boy has a single run under his belt at this trip and showed nothing of note. Half-brother to useful performer Caustic Love and out of a dam who has already produced two winners, but the small sample means any promise is hard to weigh up. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here on a track where they have decent experience.
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10Here's To It36/100
Here's To It showed little in two starts at maiden level and was well held when fourth of six over a mile here last time. Dropping back to 7f today asks a fresh question while the yard's 5% strike rate at Redcar is in line with their record elsewhere. Data confidence is low so this assessment should be read with caution.
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11Eagles Eternal30/100
Eagles Eternal showed little on debut over 5f and now steps up to an untried 7f on soft ground. The half-brother to a nine-time winner comes from a dam who has produced six winners from seven runners but the small sample means his ability remains unclear. Trainer Jim Goldie has an 8% strike rate at Redcar from 384 runs while Lauren Young is on board.
KTB verdict
Procyon is the KTB Selection. He showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip, is bred to be smart as a half-brother to a Group 2 winner, and represents a yard that performs notably well at Redcar. The prominent run-style should suit the expected genuinely-run pace, though the lack of soft-ground experience means the form must be treated with caution. His main dangers are the fellow prominent runner Arctic Force, whose pedigree suggests improvement, and the front-running Olympiacos who has already shown a bit more on the track than several of his rivals.
KTB Selection Procyon
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:25am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Procyon | 5/4 | Virgin Bet, 12:15am |
| Sayaarr | 15/2 | LiveScore Bet, 12:15am |
| Arctic Force | 2/1 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Olympiacos | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Hal'way The Lads | 20/1 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Raguel | 14/1 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Leabank | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Lady Mombasa | 80/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Binksy Boy | 100/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Here's To It | 80/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Eagles Eternal | 100/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:25 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has the strongest pedigree among the principals?
Procyon is dropping in class and is a half-brother to Group 2 winner Dame Malliot from a dam that has produced five winners from six runners to race.
How does the expected pace shape influence the principals' run-styles?
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types in a genuinely-run race, favouring the prominent styles of Procyon and Arctic Force as well as the front-running Olympiacos.
Which newcomer has the most notable sibling in the field?
Raguel is a half-brother to Group 1 winner Shaquille.
Which horse has already raced on soft ground at Redcar over this trip?
Leabank finished sixth of 11 here on soft ground over this trip on debut.
What is the highest trainer strike rate at Redcar among the connections in this race?
William Haggas has a 25% strike rate at Redcar from 230 runs.
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