2:01 Newcastle
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Newcastle over 2m0f190y on good ground brings together an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit scores identify a tight group at the top. Thesoldiersminit tops the ratings on 70 with Nobotheratall close behind on 68, while National Question, Paragon and Ms Cindy Kate complete the principals. Official ratings range from 100 down to 73, with several runners dropping in class or stepping up in trip, and the KTB numbers suggest a race where recent form, track affinity and trip suitability will prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run race is expected with high confidence, as Nobotheratall is likely to take them along from the front and will be pressed by several prominent racers including Paragon, Cawthorne Cracker, Bodygroove and Bouboule. Thesoldiersminit and Ms Cindy Kate are held up types who will look to produce their effort late off what should be a strong pace, while National Question and others settle in mid-division. The key question is whether the early pace will prove too demanding for the front-runners or create the right setup for the closers to strike in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Thesoldiersminit KTB Selection70/100
Thesoldiersminit is a fair performer who showed some encouragement when fourth on his latest start. He steps back up to a trip at which he has been placed once from three attempts. The yard has only four runs at Newcastle which is too small a sample to judge while the jockey's record at the track is not supplied. Brendan Powell takes the ride for a stable with a 1/5 record at the venue and the pair will look to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a proper gallop. With an official rating of 87 and recent form of U735-4 he enters the reckoning as the KTB Selection.
-
2Nobotheratall68/100
Nobotheratall is a useful performer who arrives in solid recent form and holds an official rating of 100. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance, and he has shown ability on good ground with two wins from ten runs. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Newcastle from 39 runs, in line with their record elsewhere. Harry Reed is in the saddle for a yard with a 48/289 record and the horse's front-running style means he is set to make the running in what is anticipated to be a genuinely-run contest. His form figures of 124798 underline that he brings strong claims on his best days.
-
3National Question64/100
National Question is a fair handicapper who has won once from three starts at this track. He steps back up in trip today having won twice from six starts at this distance and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from 16 starts. The trainer's 13% strike rate at Newcastle from 38 runs sits in line with his overall record. Joshua Thompson claims 5lb for a stable with an 11/43 record and the mid-division run style should see him well placed if the race develops as expected. Recent form of 1516-5 suggests he remains competitive at this level.
-
4Paragon61/100
Paragon is a fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive in recent starts. The step up in trip looks a fresh question and the yard's 9% strike rate at Newcastle is in line with their record elsewhere. Jockey Nathan Moscrop has a 6% strike rate at the track from 82 rides. Prominent in his racing style, he is likely to race handily behind the leaders in a race that should be run at a genuine clip. With an official rating of 86 and form figures of 74-644 he has been competitive on good ground without winning.
-
5Ms Cindy Kate54/100
Ms Cindy Kate is a fair performer who has shown steady but unspectacular form, finishing in the frame on her last two completed starts before pulling up last time. She steps back up to 2m having failed to trouble the judge at the trip on her only previous attempt. The Nicky Richards yard has a 19% strike rate at Newcastle from 439 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while Danny McMenamin has limited course data to go on. Usually held up, she will be produced late off what is likely to be a strong pace. The family line shows the dam has had two other runners, none of them a winner.
-
6Alidam53/100
Alidam is a useful performer on official ratings who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. The step up in trip looks a fresh question and first-time headgear is now tried. The yard have a 23% strike rate at Newcastle from 116 runs which is above their 11% at other tracks. Dropping in class, the half-brother to Astadame brings a strong pedigree with the dam having produced two winners from four runners.
-
7Cawthorne Cracker49/100
Cawthorne Cracker is a fair handicapper who has been placed on both previous visits to Newcastle and has won twice at today's trip. He arrives in decent nick with a 356212 sequence that includes two wins in the last six starts. The yard's 8% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey has no established record at the track. Prominent in his racing style and with a good record on good ground he is likely to be to the fore.
-
8Bodygroove48/100
Bodygroove is a fair performer on his official rating of 88 with 26 career runs behind him. He has a win and a place from nine runs on good ground and was placed once in five starts at today's trip though he drops back from 2m2f now. The yard records a 10% strike rate at Newcastle from 804 runs which is in line with their 9% at other tracks while Brian Hughes rides. Usually prominent, he should be involved in the early fractions.
-
9Plane Sailing40/100
Plane Sailing is a fair performer on his official rating of 85 but arrives with a patchy recent record of 8/PP-7 and only four career starts in the last year. The yard has a 2% strike rate at Newcastle from 42 runs, in line with their 9% at other tracks, while jockey Callum Bewley has his own separate record here. He steps up in trip today to a distance he has not tried, with going suitability also unknown from such a light profile. Dropping in class and usually held up.
-
10Bouboule38/100
Bouboule is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. The yard’s 7% strike rate at Newcastle is in line with their record elsewhere while Sean Quinlan has a 9% strike rate at the track from 67 rides. The step up in trip asks a fresh question and the horse has shown no promise on good ground in ten starts. Usually prominent, his recent form of P-7655 offers little encouragement.
-
11Zeezee37/100
Zeezee is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place twice on good ground from six attempts but remains winless. Drops back from 3m1f to a trip he tried without success last year while his sole run here produced a midfield finish. Trainer is 0 from 5 at Newcastle. Usually settling in midfield, her form of 52258- shows some placed efforts but she carries the lowest official rating in the field.
KTB verdict
Thesoldiersminit is the KTB Selection. A fair performer, he showed encouragement when finishing fourth last time and returns to a trip where he has been placed once from three starts. The held-up run style looks ideal if the race unfolds at the anticipated genuine gallop, and the combination of Brendan Powell and the yard's small but respectable record at Newcastle adds to his appeal. Nobotheratall brings the highest official rating and strong recent form while his front-running style could see him take some catching. National Question, with a course win on his record, and the consistent Paragon are the other main dangers in a race where the pace should test the whole field.
KTB Selection Thesoldiersminit
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Thesoldiersminit | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Nobotheratall | 16/1 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| National Question | 10/1 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| Paragon | 11/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Ms Cindy Kate | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Alidam | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Cawthorne Cracker | 5/2 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| Bodygroove | 11/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Plane Sailing | 12/1 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| Bouboule | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Zeezee | 16/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:01 Newcastle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newcastle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited by the expected genuinely-run pace?
Thesoldiersminit and Ms Cindy Kate, both usually held up and producing their effort late, should be suited by the strong gallop set by the front-runners.
What is the course record of the principals at Newcastle?
National Question has won once from three starts here, while Thesoldiersminit, Nobotheratall, Paragon and Ms Cindy Kate have no course form on record.
Which runners are stepping up in trip for this race?
Thesoldiersminit, Nobotheratall, National Question, Paragon, Alidam, Plane Sailing and Bouboule are all stepping up in trip.
How many of the field have previous wins on good ground?
Nobotheratall has two wins from ten runs on good, National Question has three wins from 16, Cawthorne Cracker has two wins from 21 and Bodygroove has one win from nine.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Newcastle among those represented?
Nicky Richards has a 19% strike rate at Newcastle from 439 runs, the highest among the trainers in this race.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies