12:43 Ayr

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1The Skecher KTB Selection72/100

   Form P/210- · Dan Skelton · Tristan Durrell

   Family: half-brother to Inlandsis (1 win from 7 runs). The dam has had 1 other runner, a winner.

   The Skecher arrives with a KTB Fit of 72 and is the clear selection. He showed promise when winning on his only start over hurdles at this course and already has a win at today’s trip on his record. Dropping in class from his latest pulled-up effort, he returns from a break with only two career runs behind him so the overall picture remains somewhat unclear. Dan Skelton’s 24% strike rate at Ayr from 128 runs is a positive while Tristan Durrell takes the ride with a neutral score at the track. As a front-runner he is ideally positioned to take advantage of the uncontested lead shape though he is unproven on good to soft ground. His half-brother Inlandsis won once from seven runs and the dam has produced one other winner.

2. 2Bay Runner60/100

   Form 32- · Lizzie Quinlan · Sean Quinlan

   Family: half-brother to Enki Flacke (4 wins from 14 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Bay Runner is rated 60 on KTB Fit and must be considered despite a light profile. Lightly raced with only one run to go on, he finished third on debut over 2m1f and now drops back in trip for a race that poses a fresh question. He is stepping up in class and the official rating is yet to be set, so the small sample demands caution. Half-brother to Enki Flacke who won four times from 14 runs, he has been placed once from one start on good to soft. Lizzie Quinlan’s 8% strike rate at Ayr is modest while Sean Quinlan’s 12% record at the track offers some encouragement. His held-up style with limited evidence means he will need to produce his effort late against a likely uncontested leader.

3. 3King Kubala59/100

   Form 31- · Sandy Thomson · Craig Nichol

   Family: half-brother to Holly Bird (1 win from 13 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   King Kubala carries a KTB Fit of 59 and is another lightly raced contender. With just two starts behind him the bare form of 31- offers limited guidance yet he has already placed here over this trip on good to soft and won on this surface. Dropping in class, he is a half-brother to Holly Bird who won once from 13 runs and the dam has produced one other winner. Sandy Thomson’s 0% strike rate at Ayr from two runs prevents any firm read while Craig Nichol’s 12% record at the venue sits in line with his overall figure. Typically settling in midfield with limited evidence, he will need to find a way to close the gap if the leader is allowed an easy time up front.

4. 4Noble Thistle52/100

   Form 22- · Jackie Stephen · Patrick Wadge

   Family: half-brother to Irish Thistle (4 wins from 65 runs). The dam has had 12 other runners, 6 of them winners.

   Noble Thistle is the fourth principal with a KTB Fit of 52. A debutant, his assessment rests on a limited pedigree as half-brother to modest performer Irish Thistle who won four times from 65 runs and out of a dam who has produced six winners from twelve runners. The yard’s 8% strike rate at Ayr matches their record elsewhere and Patrick Wadge’s 14% strike rate at the track is also in line with his overall figure. With no racecourse form the picture remains tentative and data confidence is low. By Crystal Ocean, he represents a yard and jockey combination that will need everything to fall right in a race with an uncontested leader likely to set a stiff task for newcomers.

5. 5Majordomo52/100

   Form 11- · Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · Jack Power(5)

   Majordomo has an unbeaten record from two starts but the bare form is hard to weigh up given the low data confidence and small sample. The yard’s 12% strike rate at Ayr is in line with their record elsewhere while Jack Power’s 13% strike rate at the track matches his overall figure. He has won on good to soft but drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried and his held-up style means he will be giving ground to the likely leader.

6. 6Jackson Court44/100

   Form 351- · N. W. Alexander · Dominic Hislop(7)

   Family: half-brother to Taxus Baccata (5 wins from 16 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Jackson Court is a debutant whose assessment rests on pedigree and connections. He is a half-brother to useful performer Taxus Baccata who won five times from 16 runs and the dam has produced another winner. The trainer holds a 13% strike rate at Ayr from 792 runs, above their mark elsewhere, while the 7 lb claimer has ridden 14 times here without a win.

7. 7Battle of Arsuf44/100

   Form 4- · Donald McCain · Theo Gillard

   Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

   Battle of Arsuf is a newcomer with very little to go on beyond pedigree and connections. The dam has produced just one previous runner that failed to win, so the family offers no real pointers. Donald McCain has a 19% strike rate at Ayr from 361 runs, above his 15% elsewhere, while Theo Gillard records a 9% strike rate here from 45 rides, matching his overall figure.

8. 8Flaming Norman36/100

   Form 940P- · Adam Nicol · Ryan Mania

   Flaming Norman has shown very little in four starts so far with a best effort of ninth and a pulled-up finish last time. He drops back in trip to 2m having failed to make an impact at that distance on his only previous attempt. The yard’s 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Ayr is in line with their record elsewhere while Ryan Mania has a solid 11% strike rate here. His held-up style will leave him further adrift if the leader is allowed to dictate.