1:18 Ayr
This Class 5 handicap steeplechase over 3m0f20y at Ayr on good to soft ground brings together a field of 12 where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Midnight Moonshine heads the numbers on a mark of 67/100, closely followed by Nights In Venice at 66/100, with the remainder of the principals ranging from 61/100 down to 55/100. The race features several runners dropping in class and a number with solid course form at Ayr, though questions remain around trip, ground and fitness for some.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Jirko, Jo Arengeot Bey Aa and Cave Hill. This is likely to set the race up for hold-up performers, with Midnight Moonshine, Nights In Venice and Torosay all typically producing their effort late. The key question is whether the pace will collapse in the latter stages, allowing the patiently ridden horses to come through and capitalise.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Midnight Moonshine KTB Selection67/100
Midnight Moonshine is a useful performer who has won at this trip from nine attempts. The yard holds an 8% strike rate at Ayr from 1,044 runs which is above their 6% at other courses while the jockey is operating at a 10% strike rate here from 67 rides in line with their 7% elsewhere. No prior runs at the track and no experience of good to soft ground leave both unknowns today. Dropping in class from an official rating of 95, this 7-year-old will be held up and produce its effort late. Recent form of 905657 suggests there is more to come if the unknowns are overcome.
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2Nights In Venice66/100
Nights In Venice is a useful performer who has won twice at Ayr from seven runs and steps up in trip today having already scored over this distance. Recent form of 34212 shows consistent ability and the yard’s 15% strike rate at the track is above their overall figure. The jockey is still seeking a first course winner from five rides while the horse is competitive but winless in three placings from seven on good to soft. This 10-year-old will be held up and produce its effort late. With an official rating of 90, it brings strong course form into the equation.
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3Prince des Fichaux61/100
Prince des Fichaux is a useful performer on his day with a solid official rating of 99 and plenty of racecourse experience behind him. He has shown some competitiveness on good to soft ground but is 0-4 at this trip and drops back from a much longer run last time. The yard and jockey both record strike rates at Ayr that sit in line with their figures elsewhere. This 9-year-old will race prominently, usually handily on or close to the lead. Recent form of 3P45P/ indicates that a return to form is required.
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4Jirko60/100
Jirko is a fair handicapper who has been placed on five of his eight starts at Ayr without winning. He has solid recent form of 333U-F and is proven at this trip and on good to soft ground. Both the trainer and jockey have above-average strike rates at the track. This 7-year-old will tend to make the running or race on the pace. With an official rating of 84 and multiple placed efforts at the course, it is sure to be to the fore early.
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5Torosay55/100
Torosay is a useful performer who has been placed three times from six runs at Ayr and has won at this trip. He arrives in decent form with three seconds from his last five starts and is well suited by good to soft ground. The yard has a 12% strike rate here in line with their record elsewhere but the claiming jockey is still seeking a first course winner from eight rides. This 8-year-old will be held up and produce its effort late. Recent form of 27422- underlines its consistency at this level.
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6The Grey Venture54/100
The Grey Venture is a useful sort who showed that with a win and two placed efforts from just three starts last season. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m2f, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard and jockey both operate at a 7% and 3% strike rate at Ayr respectively, both in line with their records elsewhere. Dropping in class from an official rating of 100, this half-brother to Soldier Of Destiny will settle in midfield.
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7Jo Arengeot Bey Aa53/100
Jo Arengeot Bey Aa is a fair performer who has won once over today's trip from six attempts and arrives in reasonable form with two placed efforts in his last three completed starts. He has never run at Ayr before and is 0-3 on good to soft ground. The trainer is 0-49 at the track while the jockey operates at a 13% strike rate here. This front-runner will tend to make the running or race on the pace from an official rating of 79.
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8Didntgotwenty49/100
Didntgotwenty is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a second at the last meeting and showed consistency through last season. He has been beaten every time he has tried this trip and his three runs here have produced no better than fifth place. The yard and jockey both record strike rates at Ayr that sit in line with their figures elsewhere. This 7-year-old will race prominently from an official rating of 84.
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9Rob Roy Macgregor48/100
Rob Roy Macgregor is a fair performer who has placed three times from six runs at Ayr without winning. Has shown consistent form at this trip but is 0-6 on good to soft ground and was well held on his most recent start. Trainer has only had two runners at the track so that remains an unknown. This 8-year-old will race prominently from an official rating of 84.
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10Cave Hill48/100
Cave Hill is a modest performer who has run nine times at Ayr without winning, his best effort a placed finish. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance. The yard and jockey both operate at their usual level here while he has shown ability on good to soft ground. This front-runner will tend to make the running or race on the pace from an official rating of 74.
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11Lewa House36/100
Lewa House is a modest performer who has run 13 times at Ayr without winning and has been placed just once in five starts at today's trip. He has shown some competitiveness on good to soft ground with four places from nine runs but arrives on the back of a pulled-up effort and holds an official rating of 74. The trainer is 0% from 24 runs at the track while the jockey is 0% from 14 rides here. This 10-year-old will settle in midfield.
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12Jet Light35/100
Jet Light is a fair performer who has been well held in both starts at this track and both runs at today's trip. The yard's 4% strike rate at Ayr sits below their 8% elsewhere while the jockey is still seeking a first course win from five rides. Only five career runs means plenty remains unknown. This half-brother to Beni Light will be held up from an official rating of 83.
KTB verdict
Midnight Moonshine is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has won at this trip, it is dropping in class with the yard and jockey both showing above-average strike rates at Ayr. Its hold-up style looks ideal given the strong pace that is expected to unfold, though the lack of experience on good to soft ground and at the track are clear unknowns. Nights In Venice, with its course wins and proven stamina, is the most obvious danger, while Jirko's course placings and prominent running could see it go well if the pace does not tell late on. Prince des Fichaux and Torosay complete the main principals to consider.
KTB Selection Midnight Moonshine
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:05am, 31 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Midnight Moonshine | 14/1 | 7Bet, 12:00am |
| Nights In Venice | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Prince des Fichaux | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Jirko | 10/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Torosay | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| The Grey Venture | 15/2 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Jo Arengeot Bey Aa | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Didntgotwenty | 9/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Rob Roy Macgregor | 8/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Cave Hill | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Lewa House | 30/1 | 7Bet, 12:00am |
| Jet Light | 22/1 | BoyleSports, 12:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:18 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ayr racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set a strong pace?
Jirko, Jo Arengeot Bey Aa and Cave Hill are all front-runners or prominent runners in a race where a strong pace is likely with high confidence.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
With two or more habitual front-runners the pace looks strong and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Midnight Moonshine, Nights In Venice and Torosay.
Which runner has the strongest Ayr course record among the principals?
Nights In Venice has won here twice from seven runs, while Jirko has been placed on five of eight starts and Torosay has been placed three times from six runs.
How many principals are dropping in class?
Midnight Moonshine and Prince des Fichaux are both dropping in class, as is The Grey Venture among the field runners.
Which horse has the highest official rating in the field?
The Grey Venture carries the highest official rating of 100.
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