Horse profile
Scenario (GB)
27 runs · 11 courses · from Jul 2024
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
3 wins · Bath, Wolverhampton (AW) & Lingfield
Off 108 days · 5th of 12
Last raced off OR 50
KTB Profile
Scenario (GB) is a filly with three wins from 27 starts, all at Class 6 level. She won the Ella Bury Always In Our Hearts Handicap at Bath over 1m – 1m1f on good in Apr 2026 off an official rating of 49, the Join The Midnite Movement Handicap at Wolverhampton (AW) over 1m – 1m1f on standard (AW) in Jan 2026 off 52, and a 6f – 7f classified stakes at Lingfield on good to soft in Jul 2025 off 49. Two of her wins came on turf and one on all-weather. She finished 5 of 12, having been held, at Bath in Jul 2026 off an official rating of 50.
Based on 27 archived runs · run-style from 11 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
All wins at Class 6
- 3–27Wins / Runs
- 11.1%Strike rate
- 7 (25.9%)Placed
- −9.67£1 level staken=27 at SP
- 1.03Fair A/E n=27 · 0.85 incl. margin
- 54Highest OR
- 27dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating50↓ 4lb off peak
50
49–54
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 116
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 15 | 99A | 86 | 12 · 99 / 91 |
| Good | 5 | 120C | 86 | 2 · 116 / 101 |
| Firm | 2 | 84B | 78.5 | 2 · 84 / 78.5 |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 116C | 83 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 85B | 70.5 | — |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 20 | 120C | 85.5 | 15 · 116 / 86 |
| 6f – 7f | 7 | 116C | 76 | 1 · — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 27 figures from 27 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 11 analysed runs
- Held up 5 (45%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 4 (36%) · 1 win
- Led 2 (18%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 10.2% of 3,595 runs since Jan 2008 (348 horses).
Strongest on soft going: 13.3% from 532.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 10 | 2 | 20% | +9.8 | 0 from 2 |
| Good to Firm | 433 | 39 | 9% | −1.2 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 762 | 81 | 10.6% | +0.4 | 1 from 5 |
| Good to Soft | 461 | 55 | 11.9% | +1.7 | 1 from 2 |
| Soft | 532 | 71 | 13.3% | +3.1 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 198 | 22 | 11.1% | +0.9 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1,198 | 97 | 8.1% | −2.1 | 1 from 15 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 294 | 30 | 10.2% | 0 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1,613 | 159 | 9.9% | −0.3 | 1 from 7 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 984 | 90 | 9.1% | −1.1 | 2 from 20 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 454 | 55 | 12.1% | +1.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 182 | 18 | 9.9% | −0.3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 56 | 14 | 25% | +14.8 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 10 | 1 | 10% | −0.2 | — |
| Over 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −10.2 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 17 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
3 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Magic Box (IRE) (2 wins).
The wins came over 6f–7f; the highest grade won is Class 5 (Magic Box (IRE)).
Family form: Magic Box (IRE) finished 2nd of 10 at Nottingham, 14 Oct 2026.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Box (IRE) | 13 | 2 | 7f | Class 5 |
| Boy Browning (GB) | 10 | 1 | 6f | Class 5 |
| Jolly Sailor (GB) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 15 | 1 | 7% | −9.00 |
| Good | 5 | 1 | 20% | −0.67 |
| Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 24 | 3 | 13% | −6.67 |
| Class 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 10 | 1 | 10% | −4.00 |
| Bath | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.33 |
| Chepstow | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Ffos Las | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Lingfield | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Brighton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 20 | 2 | 10% | −9.67 |
| 6f – 7f | 7 | 1 | 14% | +0.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Ghiani | 4 | 1 | 25% | +2.00 |
| Dylan Hogan | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Matthew Lloyd Slater | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Billy Loughnane | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.33 |
| Cieren Fallon | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jack Doughty | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Hector Crouch | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.00 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kieren Fox | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Harry Vigors | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Neil Callan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| George Bass | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| William Cox | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Elizabeth Gale | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Joe Leavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| George Rooke | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jonny Peate | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 19 | 2 | 11% | −8.67 |
| Cheekpieces | 8 | 1 | 13% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13 | 2 | 15% | −2.67 |
| 2025 | 12 | 1 | 8% | −5.00 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jul 26+16d | Bath | Lansdown Golf Club Classified Stakes Sat close behind the front group - pressed for effort with two furlongs left - stayed on at the same rate through the closing stages - finished fifth beaten just under four lengths | 5/12 | 1¾ | 9-9 | 50 | 84B | 62A | Silvestre De Sousa | 3/1J |
| 15 Jun 26+14d | Chepstow | opx.io Operating System For Continuous Improvement Handicap (Div 1) Settled behind the front group towards the far rail - lost ground with over 2f left - beaten with more than a furlong to run - finished sixth | 6/10 | nk | 9-5 | 51 | 116A | 63A | Kieren Fox | 15/2 |
| 01 Jun 26+33d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Enjoy Summer Racing At Wolverhampton Racecourse Handicap Held up rear from the off - never got competitive - well beaten in 10th | 10/11 | ¾ | 8-9 | 53 | 71A | 50A | Matthew Lloyd Slater | 20/1 |
| 29 Apr 26+12d | Bath | Watch Live Racing On fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap (Div 1) Settled in the pack - pushed along to move closer 2f out but dropped back approaching the last furlong - weakened to finish fifth | 5/9 | 2¼ | 9-8 | 54 | 73A | 63A | Billy Loughnane | 13/8F |
| 17 Apr 26+12d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Race And Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Settled towards the back - pushed along with two furlongs left then found little room inside the final furlong - stayed on without threatening finishing seventh | 7/11 | ¾ | 9-8 | 49 | 96A | 67A | Cieren Fallon | 16/1 |
| 05 Apr 26+11d | Bath | Ella Bury Always In Our Hearts Handicap (Div 2) Sat close to pace early - nudged into second spot 2f out then went clear inside final furlong under urging - stayed on well to score | 1/14 | 9-3 | 49 | 86C | 79A | Billy Loughnane | 10/3F | |
| 25 Mar 26+4d | Kempton (AW) | Virgin Bet Handicap (Div 2) Held handy early - pressed for effort with 2f left - lost momentum in the closing stages to finish sixth beaten 3 lengths | 6/8 | nse | 9-5 | 51 | 86A | 64A | Marco Ghiani | 9/2 |
| 21 Mar 26+18d | Southwell (AW) | Win 250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap Close up in second early - nudged for effort with 2f remaining and slipped back - kept plugging without finding extra late | 4/11 | 1¼ | 9-5 | 51 | 84A | 77A | Marco Ghiani | 16/1 |
| 03 Mar 26+14d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap Went straight to front - overtaken before 2f gone - driven approaching final quarter mile then dropped away quickly | 10/10 | 2¼ | 9-6 | 52 | 81A | 44A | Cieren Fallon | 9/2 |
| 17 Feb 26+12d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (Rider Restricted Race) (Div 1) Shared the front spot early - settled into second soon after - given a squeeze approaching 2f out - hampered and losing ground inside the final furlong then dropped away | 6/9 | 5½ | 8-10 | 53 | 92A | 48A | Harry Vigors | 13/2 |
| 05 Feb 26+24d | Southwell (AW) | Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap In front early - lost command before 1f - urged on approaching 2f out and briefly closed - then found little - stayed on gamely late to finish 4th | 4/10 | ¾ | 9-8 | 54 | 92A | 75A | Marco Ghiani | 9/2 |
| 12 Jan 26+10d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap Contested the front early - held a forward position soon after - lost ground 2f out then boxed in with no room 1f out - faded to finish sixth | 6/11 | ½ | 9-7 | 54 | 93A | 64A | Neil Callan | 7/2 |
| 02 Jan 26+7d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Join The Midnite Movement Handicap (Div 1) Held handy in second early - urged forward with over two furlongs left - closed on the front-runner approaching the final furlong despite losing the crop - battled hard through the last stages - got up right at the finish to prevail | 1/9 | 9-0 | 52 | 99A | 77A | Marco Ghiani | 5/1 | |
| 26 Dec 25+32d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (Div 1) Held up in the pack - shaken up and finding room turning for home - pressed for effort before the final furlong - fought to the front close home - denied by a short head | 2/9 | nse | 9-6 | 52 | 90A | 75A | Jack Doughty | 20/1 |
| 24 Nov 25+21d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Join The Midnite Movement Apprentice Handicap Settled just off the pace early - slipped to the rear inside the final 3f - unable to close from there - finished sixth | 6/8 | 1 | 8-12 | 52 | 67A | 51A | Matthew Lloyd Slater | 11/1 |
| 03 Nov 25+53d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div 1) Settled towards the back - made ground wide and drifted left approaching final furlong - kept on inside it but couldn't get past front two | 3/12 | ¾ | 9-5 | 52 | 95A | 72A | Jack Doughty | 11/1 |
| 11 Sep 25+20d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Settled towards the back - progress checked as gaps closed a furlong out - pushed along and finished strongly to go down by a length and a half | 2/13 | 1½ | 9-5 | 52 | 79B | 69A | George Bass | 9/1 |
| 22 Aug 25+28d | Ffos Las | Ascona Ladies Fashion And Style Handicap Held up in the pack - pushed along with 2f left - unable to land a challenge - finished sixth | 6/9 | 1½ | 9-7 | 53 | 56B | 52A | William Cox | 13/2 |
| 25 Jul 25+3d | Chepstow | 3A's Caravan & Motorhome Classified Stakes Settled in the pack early - pushed along before halfway then lost touch and slipped to the back 3f out - found renewed effort inside the final 2f - edged closer a furlong out - lost momentum again in the closing stages to finish seventh | 7/14 | 3½ | 9-2 | 49 | 120C | 56A | Elizabeth Gale | 9/2 |
| 22 Jul 25+14d | Lingfield | BetWright Safer Gambling Classified Stakes Settled just off the pace - pushed along a furlong out - hit the front inside final furlong - drew away to score | 1/14 | 9-2 | 49 | 116C | 80A | Hector Crouch | 6/1 | |
| 08 Jul 25+16d | Lingfield | HighBet Club WC 30 Bonus Handicap Settled at the rear early - made progress wide of the field and drifted left approaching the furlong marker - finished up in 4th place | 4/10 | ½ | 9-5 | 51 | 81B | 58A | Hector Crouch | 6/1 |
| 22 Jun 25+20d | Ffos Las | NB Civils And Surfacing Ltd Handicap Held slim advantage in front - pressed for effort with 3f to run then lost command over 2f out - dropped away quickly after finishing 5th | 5/8 | 3¾ | 8-12 | 51 | 50C | 47C | Dylan Hogan | 15/2 |
| 02 Jun 25+11d | Brighton | Star Sports We Believe In Bookmaking Handicap Sprang forward smartly from the start - sat close to the front group before being pressed for effort two furlongs out - couldn't quicken and held to a steady effort through the last furlong | 4/9 | 1½ | 9-6 | 52 | 85B | 66A | Dylan Hogan | 6/1 |
| 22 May 25+14d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap (Div 2) Handy early - dropped back with 5f left - rallied into contention approaching final furlong going third and edging right - finished well for 3rd | 3/9 | ¾ | 9-3 | 52 | 73A | 59A | Joe Leavy | 22/1 |
| 08 May 25+257d | Chelmsford City (AW) | bet365 Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) Held a spot in the pack - drifted left under pressure a furlong out - held no more in the closing stages | 6/9 | 1¼ | 9-0 | — | 76B | 54A | Dylan Hogan | 28/1 |
| 24 Aug 24+24d | Newmarket | 100,000 Tattersalls Somerville Auction Stakes (GBB Race) Settled at the back - urged into action over 2f out - unable to make any headway and finished tenth | 10/14 | nk | 8-4 | — | 65C | 48C | George Rooke | 250/1 |
| 31 Jul 24 | Leicester | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) | 7/8 | nk | 8-11 | — | 56B | 39A | Jonny Peate | 18/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Scenario (GB) won?
- Scenario (GB) won 3 of 27 archived starts between 2024 and 2026, a strike rate of 11.1%. Placed 7 times in total (25.9% of starts).
- Who trains Scenario (GB)?
- Scenario (GB) is trained by Tony Carroll, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 1 July 2026.
- Who is Scenario (GB)'s sire?
- Scenario (GB) is by Territories (IRE) out of Rahaaba (IRE), whose sire is Dubawi.
- What going does Scenario (GB) prefer?
- Scenario (GB) has the best record on good going: 1 win from 5 starts (20%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Scenario (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 50, from the run on 1 July 2026. The highest on record is 54.
- What is Scenario (GB)'s sire's record?
- Territories (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.2% of 3,595 runs since Jan 2008 (348 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on soft going: 13.3% from 532.
- Who are Scenario (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Rahaaba (IRE), Scenario (GB) has 3 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Magic Box (IRE) (2). Highest grade won: Class 5 (Magic Box (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–7f. As at Oct 2026.