Matthew Lloyd Slater
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.77). Rides mostly for Tony Carroll — 66% of rides in the window.
First rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 3.2% (n=94, Fair A/E 0.34). Tony Carroll supplies 66% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.7% vs 7.7%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (21.2%, n=33) and at trips under 6f (18.8%, n=32). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 2.7% over 37 rides, 5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.43 across 89 rides (3.4% strike, −61.62 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2022→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 169 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 169 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 October 2022 to 7 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Matthew Lloyd Slater's strike rate?
- Matthew Lloyd Slater has won 13 of 169 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Matthew Lloyd Slater do best at?
- Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 37 rides (5.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Matthew Lloyd Slater ride most for?
- Tony Carroll, with 112 rides since 2022 — 66% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (10.7%).
- Is Matthew Lloyd Slater in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Matthew Lloyd Slater's Fair A/E?
- 0.77, from 169 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.