What is H D McGuigan's strike rate?

H D McGuigan has won 3 of 166 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.8% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does H D McGuigan do best at?

Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 51 runners (3.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is H D McGuigan's Fair A/E?

0.37, from 166 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

H D McGuigan

166 runners in the last 5 seasons · 30 individual horses

As at 26 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 82 days ago 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2022

3–166

Wins / Runs

1.8%

Strike rate

n=166

24 (15%)

Placed

0.37

Fair A/E

n=166 · 0.30 incl. margin

−95.00

£1 level stake

n=166 at SP · −57.2%

£59,445

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.37). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 4% off breaks of two months or more (55 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 166 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 26 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 3.6% New recruits: 3.3% Claiming riders: 2.9%

The read

The yard also reads well off a 61-180-day break (6.7%, n=30) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (4.9%, n=41). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.62 across 54 runners (3.7% strike, −9.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.6%+1.8

n=55 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −10.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.3%+1.5

n=30 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −19.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−1.8

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−1.8

n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

When favourite

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

2.9%+1.1

n=70 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 61-180-day break 6.7% vs 1.8% · n=30

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 4.9% vs 1.8% · n=41

At Dundalk (AW) 3.9% vs 1.8% · n=51

On Standard (AW) going 3.7% vs 1.8% · n=54 · A/E 0.62

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 162 3 1.9% −91.00

Hurdle 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 54 2 3.7% −9.00

Soft 39 1 2.6% −13.00

Good 35 0 0% −35.00

Good to Soft 22 0 0% −22.00

Heavy 13 0 0% −13.00

Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 51 2 3.9% −6.00

Down Royal 16 0 0% −16.00

Sligo 15 0 0% −15.00

Navan 11 0 0% −11.00

Leopardstown 10 0 0% −10.00

Roscommon 9 0 0% −9.00

Bellewstown 8 0 0% −8.00

Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00

Ballinrobe 7 0 0% −7.00

Naas 7 1 14.3% +19.00

Gowran Park 5 0 0% −5.00

Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00

Galway 2 0 0% −2.00

Thurles 2 0 0% −2.00

Laytown (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00

2nd–3rd fav 13 0 0% 0.00 −13.00

4th–6th fav 33 1 3% 0.41 −22.00

7th+ in betting 116 2 1.7% 0.61 −56.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Anjah (IRE)from C Moore 13 1 4 19 Sep 25

Beer With The Boys (GB)from C Moore 11 0 2 21 Jul 25

Sadiqaa (IRE)from James McAuley 11 0 3 22 Jun 24

Goldsmith (IRE)from Alice Haynes 10 0 1 29 May 26

Viceregent (GB)from C Byrnes · then Liam Lennon 10 0 1 22 Oct 25

Pillar Of Hope (GB)from Charlie Johnston · then C Moore 10 0 1 30 Jul 24

Singe Anglais (IRE)from Nigel Tinkler 9 0 2 31 Oct 23

Capital Theory (GB)from Charlie Johnston 7 1 3 5 Aug 26

Coviglia (IRE)from C Moore 7 0 0 26 Mar 24

Army Of India (IRE)from Julie Camacho · then Ross O'Sullivan 7 0 1 1 Mar 24

Pons Aelius (IRE)from Charlie Johnston 6 0 0 29 May 26

Monzoon (GB)from Noel C Kelly · then R Donohoe 6 0 1 11 Jul 24

All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 30 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C Moore (7) and Charlie Johnston (3).

9 have since run for another yard, most often for C Moore (2) and P Sweeney (2); 21 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1100000007500

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Seamie Heffernan 27 0 0% −27.00

Dylan Browne McMonagle 19 0 0% −19.00

Patrick McGettigan 13 0 0% −13.00

Adam Caffrey 12 1 8.3% +22.00

Shane Foley 9 0 0% −9.00

Scott McCullagh 7 0 0% −7.00

Nicola Burns 6 0 0% −6.00

Conor Stone-Walsh 6 0 0% −6.00

J M Sheridan 6 0 0% −6.00

Wayne Hassett 5 0 0% −5.00

Declan McDonogh 4 1 25% +7.00

Ronan Whelan 4 0 0% −4.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

Archived wins

£59,445

Prize money

2026

Best season · 1 win

Capital Theory (GB) — TRM Calphormin - Strong Foundation, Strong Future Apprentice Handicap Naas · Oct 2025

£6,785

Anjah (IRE) — Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (47-65) (Div 2) Dundalk (AW) · Sep 2024

£6,195

Winemaker (FR) — Group Deals Available At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) Dundalk (AW) · Jan 2026

£5,900

Notable horses

Anjah (IRE) Capital Theory (GB) Winemaker (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Nathaniel (IRE) 0% · 0–21

Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,074 runs since 2008 (635 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.5% from 325.

Kodiac (GB) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,554 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Estidhkaar (IRE) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,588 runs since 2008 (112 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 119. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 229.

Awtaad (IRE) 0% · 0–10

Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,868 runs since 2008 (210 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.8% from 102. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.1% from 114.

Shalaa (IRE) 0% · 0–10

Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,437 runs since 2008 (279 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.8% from 142.

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,790 runs since 2008 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 166 · newest first

The latest 50 of 166 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 February 2023 to 5 August 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Capital Theory (GB)J: Patrick McGettigan Carlsberg Optional Claiming Race10.5f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 16/1

29 May 26 Down Royal Pons Aelius (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60)16f · Good · 14 ran 12th 40/1

29 May 26 Down Royal Goldsmith (IRE)J: Leigh Roche BOYLE Sports Extra Places Every Day Handicap7f · Good · 14 ran 13th 66/1

03 May 26 Sligo Pons Aelius (IRE)J: Gabriella Hill Tote.ie Apprentice Handicap (0-60)14f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 11th 22/1

27 Mar 26 Dundalk (AW) Winemaker (FR)J: Shane Foley Sunday 12th July Ladies Day At Dundalk Handicap (0-60)7f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 8/1

15 Mar 26 Curragh Winemaker (FR)J: Reese Holohan Nua's Mobile Sensory Units Handicap6f · Heavy · 12 ran 8th 17/2

28 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Winemaker (FR)J: Declan McDonogh Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60)7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 10/3

16 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Pons Aelius (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap16f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

13 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Winemaker (FR)J: Declan McDonogh Group Deals Available At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60)6f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 10/1

22 Oct 25 Navan Viceregent (GB)J: Sadhbh Tormey Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap (0-60)14f · Soft · 23 ran 17th 22/1

21 Oct 25 Curragh Capital Theory (GB)J: Sadhbh Tormey Final Furlong Podcast With 1xbet.ie Handicap10f · Heavy · 25 ran 16th 25/1

13 Oct 25 Roscommon Viceregent (GB)J: Luke McAteer Thank You For Your Support Handicap (0-60)12f · Soft · 16 ran 3rd 33/1

13 Oct 25 Roscommon Petrol Head (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Gary's Gardening Services Maiden10.5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 50/1

12 Oct 25 Naas Capital Theory (GB)J: Sadhbh Tormey TRM Calphormin - Strong Foundation, Strong Future Apprentice Handicap10.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 1st 25/1

10 Oct 25 Dundalk (AW) Goldsmith (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Bar One Racing Better On Football Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 50/1

06 Oct 25 Killarney Petrol Head (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Muckross Lake Median Auction Maiden8f · Soft To Heavy · 8 ran 7th 28/1

02 Oct 25 Bellewstown Viceregent (GB)J: Nicola Burns SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)12.5f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 25/1

01 Oct 25 Bellewstown Capital Theory (GB)J: Patrick McGettigan Barney Curley Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap12.5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 33/1

01 Oct 25 Bellewstown Goldsmith (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap (0-60)8f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 14/1

19 Sep 25 Dundalk (AW) Anjah (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is H D McGuigan's strike rate?: H D McGuigan has won 3 of 166 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.8% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does H D McGuigan do best at?: Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 51 runners (3.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is H D McGuigan's Fair A/E?: 0.37, from 166 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.