Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 15.6%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
15.6%+4.2
n=32 · A/E 1.76 · £1 −9.17
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
12.5%+1.1
n=8 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.1%−0.3
n=9 · A/E 1.41 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −3.64
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−11.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m25% vs 11.4% · n=32
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.4% vs 11.4% · n=41
With Craig Nichol17.5% vs 11.4% · n=40
In Class 55.3% vs 11.4% · n=38
In Hurdle races8.5% vs 11.4% · n=59
With a new jockey booking13.5% vs 11.4% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle5958.5%−35.64
Chase21419%−7.29
NH Flat8112.5%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft31412.9%−14.26
Good to Soft2528%−15.50
Good20210%−10.00
Heavy11218.2%−4.17
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle1815.6%−12.00
Hexham1417.1%−9.00
Ayr12325%+1.83
Kelso11436.4%+4.36
Sedgefield1000%−10.00
Carlisle900%−9.00
Musselburgh700%−7.00
Cartmel200%−2.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Southwell100%−1.00
Doncaster100%−1.00
Aintree11100%+1.88
Market Rasen100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 442511.9%−18.64
Class 53825.3%−27.00
Class 37342.9%+1.71
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7228.6%0.75−3.64
2nd–3rd fav15746.7%2.74+19.71
4th–6th fav3812.6%0.35−33.00
7th+ in betting2800%0.00−28.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4112.4%−35.00
1m5f – 2m32825%+0.74
2m5f – 3m1317.7%−8.67
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221900%−19.00
202326415.4%−2.67
202430516.7%−12.09
20251317.7%−11.17
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps46510.9%−27.96
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3213.1%−27.00
11-13 runners2627.7%−18.47
5-7 runners20315%−6.67
14-16 runners8225%+4.50
2-4 runners22100%+2.71
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 16 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
9 have since run for another yard, most often for Nicky Richards (2) and Rebecca Menzies (2); 7 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
6700140···02540
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
103
Archived wins
£999k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 15 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Upsilon Bleu (FR) — Sky Bet First Race Special Handicap Chase Doncaster · Jan 2017 · Class 2
£31,280
King Barry (FR) — Langvale Homes Charleston Grange Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chs Perth · Jun 2006 · Class 2
£19,518
Martila (FR) — Tennent's Cup Scottish Champion Hurdle Trial Handicap Hurdle Ayr · Nov 2017 · Class 2
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,119 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 753 · newest first
The latest 50 of 753 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 25 May 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Pauline Robson's strike rate?
Pauline Robson has won 10 of 88 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Pauline Robson's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 88 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Pauline Robson·SR 11.4%·A/E 1.12
KTB
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