What is Fergus Gregory's strike rate?

Fergus Gregory has won 32 of 273 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Fergus Gregory ride most for?

Olly Murphy, with 164 rides since 2022 — 60% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (14%).

What is Fergus Gregory's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 273 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Fergus Gregory

273 rides in the last 5 seasons · 175 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2024 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2022

32–273

Wins / Runs

11.7%

Strike rate

n=273

73 (27%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=273 · 0.89 incl. margin

−69.41

£1 level stake

n=273 at SP · −25.4%

£288k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 26% (35 rides). Rides mostly for Olly Murphy — 60% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 273 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb Olly Murphy: 14% from 164 LTO winners: 25.7%

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 25.7% (n=35, Fair A/E 1.36), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 8.1% (n=123, Fair A/E 0.65). Olly Murphy supplies 60% of the rides and edges the rider's average (14% vs 11.7%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well on Good to Soft going (16.5%, n=85) and in Class 5 (16.5%, n=79). The market has also underrated the rider off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 1.31 across 94 rides (16% strike, +24.72 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 3.2% over 31 rides, 8.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.71 across 82 rides (7.3% strike, −44.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.1%−3.6

n=123 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −99.47

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

25.7%+14.0

n=35 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +17.87

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.7%−2.0

n=62 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −17.46

When favourite

60%

n=20 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +5.88

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

20%+8.3

n=5 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +0.50

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.8%−6.9

n=21 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −17.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 25.7% vs 11.7% · n=35

In Class 3 3.2% vs 11.7% · n=31

On Good to Soft going 16.5% vs 11.7% · n=85

In Class 5 16.5% vs 11.7% · n=79

Off a 31-60-day break 16% vs 11.7% · n=94

On Good going 7.3% vs 11.7% · n=82

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 190 19 10% −52.72

Chase 60 9 15% −4.90

NH Flat 23 4 17.4% −11.79

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Soft 85 14 16.5% −8.44

Good 82 6 7.3% −44.00

Soft 81 7 8.6% −59.14

Heavy 23 4 17.4% +41.29

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Standard (AW) 1 1 100% +1.88

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Uttoxeter 27 5 18.5% −2.47

Market Rasen 20 5 25% +7.23

Huntingdon 18 3 16.7% −2.50

Hereford 17 1 5.9% −13.50

Southwell 17 5 29.4% +54.36

Bangor-on-Dee 14 0 0% −14.00

Wetherby 14 0 0% −14.00

Fakenham 12 2 16.7% −7.42

Warwick 12 0 0% −12.00

Leicester 12 1 8.3% −5.00

Doncaster 9 0 0% −9.00

Taunton 7 1 14.3% −1.00

Kempton 7 0 0% −7.00

Ludlow 7 1 14.3% −4.00

Chepstow 7 1 14.3% −4.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 152 18 11.8% −16.70

Class 5 79 13 16.5% −16.21

Class 3 31 1 3.2% −25.50

Class 2 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 24 13 54.2% 1.37 +4.76

2nd–3rd fav 64 9 14.1% 0.78 −20.17

4th–6th fav 100 9 9% 1.14 −10.00

7th+ in betting 85 1 1.2% 0.43 −44.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.8% completed · 250 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 60 71.7% 2 6 9 0 0

Hurdle 190 88.9% 1 2 18 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Auditoria (GB) 6 1 1 24 Jan 24

Damarta (FR) 5 1 2 24 Apr 24

Chris Cool (GB) 5 0 1 22 Apr 23

Mexican Boy (IRE) 5 0 0 13 Apr 23

Urban Grit (IRE) 5 0 1 26 Dec 22

Nick The Greek (GB) 4 1 1 21 Apr 24

Oakley Dancer (GB) 4 1 1 25 Jan 24

Benassi (IRE) 4 1 3 13 Jan 24

Heritier (FR) 4 1 3 2 Dec 23

Eavesdropping (GB) 4 2 3 16 Nov 23

Concetto (FR) 4 1 1 28 Apr 23

Benign Dictator (IRE) 4 1 2 9 Apr 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 175 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

152275150·0010155

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardOlly Murphy

60% of all rides
14% SR · A/E 0.99

TrainerRWSR£1

Olly Murphy 164 23 14% −28.30

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 30 5 16.7% −11.40

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

109

Archived wins

£795k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 27 wins

Calipso Collonges (FR) — Paxtons' Borders Direct For Genuine Kverneland Wishing Well Handicap Chase Kelso · Nov 2021 · Class 3

£10,130

Monte Igueldo (FR) — Macer Gifford Handicap Chase Huntingdon · Oct 2022 · Class 4

£8,714

Gardener (FR) — Daily Charged Up Offers At Rhino.Bet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Carlisle · Feb 2024 · Class 3

£8,450

Notable horses

Eavesdropping (GB) Calipso Collonges (FR) Chapati (FR) Mon Port (IRE) Auditoria (GB) Rock The House (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,744 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Westerner (GB) 18.2% · 2–11

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,837 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Getaway (GER) 11.1% · 1–9

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,934 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,826 runs since 2008 (706 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.

Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Martaline (GB) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,345 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 895 · newest first

The latest 50 of 895 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2015 to 18 May 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 May 24 Bangor-on-Dee The Flying Poet (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Wrexham Lager Proudly Back In Cans 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 15/2

07 May 24 Southwell Eaton Anne (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 13/2

26 Apr 24 Perth African Dance (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Ak Bets Home Of Free Bets Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 10/1

25 Apr 24 Warwick Junker D'allier (FR)T: Olly Murphy racingtv.com Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 10/1

24 Apr 24 Uttoxeter Damarta (FR)T: Olly Murphy Carlsberg Marston's Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 6/1

21 Apr 24 Stratford Nick The Greek (GB)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Bet At racingtv.com Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 80/1

13 Apr 24 Newcastle Gardener (FR)T: Olly Murphy Newcastle Flooring Company Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 13/2

12 Apr 24 Fakenham Arabescato (GB)T: Olly Murphy Racing TV Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 6th 6/1

11 Apr 24 Taunton Diamonds For Luck (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Ladies Evening Meeting Wednesday 24th April Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 8/13F

11 Apr 24 Taunton Jaccours (FR)T: Olly Murphy Ladies Evening Meeting Wednesday 24th April Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/2

01 Apr 24 Chepstow Lepashe (IRE)T: Sam Allwood Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 28/1

25 Mar 24 Exeter Nick The Greek (GB)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Exeter Novices' Selling HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 9/2

23 Mar 24 Bangor-on-Dee What A Johnny (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Broxton Gates Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 13/2

15 Mar 24 Fakenham Walk In The Stars (IRE)T: Christine Dunnett Try Woodfordes New Volt IPA Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 80/1

11 Mar 24 Stratford Schmilsson (GB)T: Olly Murphy Better Value With Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 11/2

02 Mar 24 Newbury Zoffee (GB)T: Olly Murphy Betvictor Non-runner-no-bet At Cheltenham Seniors' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 7/1

25 Feb 24 Hereford Believe Jack (FR)T: Olly Murphy Read Harry Cobden's Blog At PlanetSportBet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 14/1

24 Feb 24 Chepstow Gibberwell (IRE)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Pertemps Network Emea Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 15/2

18 Feb 24 Southwell Nick The Greek (GB)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 9 ran 1st 40/1

17 Feb 24 Ascot Rambo T (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Fergus Gregory's strike rate?: Fergus Gregory has won 32 of 273 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Fergus Gregory ride most for?: Olly Murphy, with 164 rides since 2022 — 60% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (14%).
What is Fergus Gregory's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 273 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.