What is Fergus Gregory's strike rate?

Fergus Gregory has won 109 of 895 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Fergus Gregory do best at?

Market Rasen by strike rate: 20 wins from 65 rides (30.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Fergus Gregory ride most for?

Olly Murphy, with 472 rides since 2008 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 78 (16.5%).

What is Fergus Gregory's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 894 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Fergus Gregory

895 rides in the lifetime window · 500 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2024 99% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

109–895

Wins / Runs

12.2%

Strike rate

n=895

253 (28%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=894 · 0.88 incl. margin

−230.67

£1 level stake

n=895 at SP · −25.8%

£795k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 21% (117 rides). Rides mostly for Olly Murphy — 53% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 895 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 45% when favourite Olly Murphy: 16.5% from 472 LTO winners: 20.5% Claiming: 13% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Market Rasen (30.8%, n=65) and Fakenham (25.5%, n=47) — all clear of the rider's 12.2% baseline. It is weakest at Warwick (2.9% over 34 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.5% (n=117, Fair A/E 1.00), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.3% (n=121, Fair A/E 0.75). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 11.6% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.29 and +4.45 to a £1 stake over 198 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Olly Murphy supplies 53% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16.5% vs 12.2%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well in NH Flat races (19.5%, n=87). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 0% over 33 rides, 12.2pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.6%−0.6

n=500 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −136.60

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20.5%+8.3

n=117 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −16.97

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.6%−0.6

n=198 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +4.45

When favourite

45%

n=100 · A/E 1.15 · £1 +1.96

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13%+0.8

n=531 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −153.63

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.3%−8.9

n=121 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −96.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−12.2

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Market Rasen 30.8% vs 12.2% · n=65

At Fakenham 25.5% vs 12.2% · n=47

In Class 2 0% vs 12.2% · n=33

On last-time-out winners 20.5% vs 12.2% · n=117

At Warwick 2.9% vs 12.2% · n=34

In NH Flat races 19.5% vs 12.2% · n=87

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 627 75 12% −131.00

Chase 174 17 9.8% −63.49

NH Flat 87 17 19.5% −29.18

Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 358 40 11.2% −104.48

Soft 228 25 11% −122.40

Good to Soft 208 31 14.9% −18.32

Heavy 72 9 12.5% +27.41

Good to Firm 19 2 10.5% −10.09

Standard (AW) 10 2 20% −2.79

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Uttoxeter 81 11 13.6% −12.47

Market Rasen 65 20 30.8% +21.83

Huntingdon 62 10 16.1% −18.93

Southwell 55 7 12.7% +39.98

Fakenham 47 12 25.5% +25.73

Bangor-on-Dee 44 4 9.1% −18.05

Warwick 34 1 2.9% −27.00

Hereford 32 2 6.3% −26.00

Stratford 32 3 9.4% −11.25

Fontwell 30 2 6.7% −26.63

Leicester 28 3 10.7% −7.50

Wetherby 26 3 11.5% +11.50

Chepstow 25 2 8% −16.50

Worcester 23 1 4.3% −20.50

Ludlow 22 3 13.6% −8.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 421 55 13.1% −67.61

Class 5 318 47 14.8% −63.47

Class 3 98 7 7.1% −41.59

Class 2 33 0 0% −33.00

Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 6 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 111 48 43.2% 1.16 +2.46

2nd–3rd fav 203 34 16.7% 0.95 −23.63

4th–6th fav 297 23 7.7% 1.02 −34.50

7th+ in betting 284 4 1.4% 0.50 −175.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.6% completed · 801 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 174 68.4% 8 12 32 1 2

Hurdle 627 86.6% 10 4 69 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Chapati (FR) 10 2 5 4 Nov 21

Tynecastle Park (GB) 10 0 5 8 Sep 21

Auditoria (GB) 8 2 3 24 Jan 24

Mon Port (IRE) 8 2 3 31 May 21

Eavesdropping (GB) 7 3 5 16 Nov 23

Rock The House (IRE) 7 2 2 23 Aug 22

Fresh New Dawn (IRE) 7 1 3 3 Jun 22

Rock On Tommy (GB) 7 0 0 2 Jun 22

Vocaliser (IRE) 7 2 3 11 Mar 22

Calipso Collonges (FR) 7 3 5 6 Nov 21

Undefined Beauty (IRE) 7 2 3 20 Oct 18

Gibberwell (IRE) 6 0 0 24 Feb 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 500 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1816139932965101512

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardOlly Murphy

53% of all rides
16.5% SR · A/E 1.00

TrainerRWSR£1

Olly Murphy 472 78 16.5% −74.09

Jake Thomas Coulson 57 7 12.3% +48.41

Oliver Greenall 36 3 8.3% −4.00

Caroline Fryer 33 1 3% −27.00

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 30 5 16.7% −11.40

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

109

Archived wins

£795k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 27 wins

Calipso Collonges (FR) — Paxtons' Borders Direct For Genuine Kverneland Wishing Well Handicap Chase Kelso · Nov 2021 · Class 3

£10,130

Monte Igueldo (FR) — Macer Gifford Handicap Chase Huntingdon · Oct 2022 · Class 4

£8,714

Gardener (FR) — Daily Charged Up Offers At Rhino.Bet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Carlisle · Feb 2024 · Class 3

£8,450

Notable horses

Eavesdropping (GB) Calipso Collonges (FR) Chapati (FR) Mon Port (IRE) Auditoria (GB) Rock The House (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 14.6% · 7–48

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,770 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Getaway (GER) 23.1% · 6–26

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,040 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Yeats (IRE) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,858 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Flemensfirth (USA) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,298 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 22.2% · 4–18

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Shirocco (GER) 22.2% · 4–18

Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,208 runs since 2010 (927 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 895 · newest first

The latest 50 of 895 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2015 to 18 May 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 May 24 Bangor-on-Dee The Flying Poet (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Wrexham Lager Proudly Back In Cans 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 15/2

07 May 24 Southwell Eaton Anne (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 13/2

26 Apr 24 Perth African Dance (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Ak Bets Home Of Free Bets Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 24f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 10/1

25 Apr 24 Warwick Junker D'allier (FR)T: Olly Murphy racingtv.com Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 10/1

24 Apr 24 Uttoxeter Damarta (FR)T: Olly Murphy Carlsberg Marston's Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 6/1

21 Apr 24 Stratford Nick The Greek (GB)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Bet At racingtv.com Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 80/1

13 Apr 24 Newcastle Gardener (FR)T: Olly Murphy Newcastle Flooring Company Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 13/2

12 Apr 24 Fakenham Arabescato (GB)T: Olly Murphy Racing TV Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 6th 6/1

11 Apr 24 Taunton Diamonds For Luck (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Ladies Evening Meeting Wednesday 24th April Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 8/13F

11 Apr 24 Taunton Jaccours (FR)T: Olly Murphy Ladies Evening Meeting Wednesday 24th April Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/2

01 Apr 24 Chepstow Lepashe (IRE)T: Sam Allwood Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 28/1

25 Mar 24 Exeter Nick The Greek (GB)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Exeter Novices' Selling HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 9/2

23 Mar 24 Bangor-on-Dee What A Johnny (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Broxton Gates Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 13/2

15 Mar 24 Fakenham Walk In The Stars (IRE)T: Christine Dunnett Try Woodfordes New Volt IPA Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 80/1

11 Mar 24 Stratford Schmilsson (GB)T: Olly Murphy Better Value With Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 11/2

02 Mar 24 Newbury Zoffee (GB)T: Olly Murphy Betvictor Non-runner-no-bet At Cheltenham Seniors' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 7/1

25 Feb 24 Hereford Believe Jack (FR)T: Olly Murphy Read Harry Cobden's Blog At PlanetSportBet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 14/1

24 Feb 24 Chepstow Gibberwell (IRE)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Pertemps Network Emea Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 15/2

18 Feb 24 Southwell Nick The Greek (GB)T: Jake Thomas Coulson Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 9 ran 1st 40/1

17 Feb 24 Ascot Rambo T (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Fergus Gregory's strike rate?: Fergus Gregory has won 109 of 895 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fergus Gregory do best at?: Market Rasen by strike rate: 20 wins from 65 rides (30.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Fergus Gregory ride most for?: Olly Murphy, with 472 rides since 2008 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 78 (16.5%).
What is Fergus Gregory's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 894 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.