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Jockey profile

Fern O'Brien

307 rides in the lifetime window · 159 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Rides today
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
39–307
Wins / Runs
12.7%
Strike rate
n=307
100 (33%)
Placed
0.94
Fair A/E
n=305 · 0.81 incl. margin
−121.89
£1 level stake
n=307 at SP · −39.7%
£351k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
12.2%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 20 times a season, winning on 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 26% (42 rides). Rides mostly for Fergal O'Brien — 76% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 307 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 54.5% when favourite Fergal O'Brien: 13.7% from 233 First rides: 13.2% LTO winners: 26.2% Claiming: 12.8% Rides the favourite in 11% of races
The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 26.2% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.17), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8.1% (n=74, Fair A/E 0.77). Fergal O'Brien supplies 76% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (13.7%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well in Class 5 (19.5%, n=118). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 4.7% over 43 rides, 8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.51 across 72 rides (6.9% strike, −53.87 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
13.2%+0.5
n=159 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −37.36
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
26.2%+13.5
n=42 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −12.73
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.1%−4.6
n=74 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −45.17
When favourite
54.5%
n=33 · A/E 1.58 · £1 +15.37
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
12.8%+0.1
n=274 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −103.89
Big fields · 14+ runners
12.1%−0.6
n=33 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +7.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−12.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 26.2% vs 12.7% · n=42
In Class 5 19.5% vs 12.7% · n=118
In Class 3 4.7% vs 12.7% · n=43
On Soft going 4.8% vs 12.7% · n=42
In Chase races 5.6% vs 12.7% · n=36
Over 2m5f – 3m 6.9% vs 12.7% · n=72
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 189 27 14.3% −66.26
Flat 60 7 11.7% −10.75
Chase 36 2 5.6% −31.63
NH Flat 22 3 13.6% −13.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 157 24 15.3% −24.81
Good to Soft 59 7 11.9% −33.24
Soft 42 2 4.8% −35.25
Good to Firm 21 4 19% −6.50
Standard (AW) 18 1 5.6% −14.00
Heavy 10 1 10% −8.09

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen 17 3 17.6% −9.27
Stratford 17 3 17.6% +5.58
Ludlow 16 3 18.8% −6.70
Uttoxeter 14 2 14.3% −0.75
Newton Abbot 13 2 15.4% −4.92
Huntingdon 13 4 30.8% +3.00
Worcester 12 0 0% −12.00
Chepstow 11 1 9.1% −8.00
Fontwell 11 0 0% −11.00
Cheltenham 10 0 0% −10.00
Hereford 9 1 11.1% −4.67
Cartmel 9 1 11.1% −2.00
Carlisle 9 1 11.1% +17.00
Southwell 9 0 0% −9.00
Ffos Las 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 118 23 19.5% +3.15
Class 4 107 11 10.3% −65.54
Class 3 43 2 4.7% −33.25
Class 6 19 2 10.5% −12.25
Class 2 11 1 9.1% −5.00
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 43 20 46.5% 1.45 +13.12
2nd–3rd fav 96 14 14.6% 0.82 −32.01
4th–6th fav 96 3 3.1% 0.38 −72.00
7th+ in betting 72 2 2.8% 0.75 −31.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87.1% completed · 225 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 36 83.3% 1 2 3 0 0
Hurdle 189 87.8% 7 1 15 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mistral Blue (GB) 12 2 5 8 Oct 26
Zhang Fei (FR) 12 2 6 30 Jun 26
Jager Time (IRE) 11 2 5 10 Oct 26
Lilting Verse (IRE) 9 0 3 24 Mar 26
Stoner's Choice (GB) 8 0 1 24 Oct 26
Snatch A Glance (GB) 7 1 1 13 Nov 26
Cooler Than Me (GB) 6 3 5 3 Nov 26
Dream Chaser (FR) 6 0 0 15 Mar 22
Zenato (IRE) 5 2 2 12 Nov 26
Kingston Sunflower (FR) 5 2 2 12 Jun 26
Global Esteem (IRE) 5 2 4 4 Dec 24
Lord P (GB) 5 2 3 26 Sep 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 159 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
2 from 10
Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8154171610122848219
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardFergal O'Brien
76% of all rides
13.7% SR · A/E 1.01
TrainerRWSR£1
Fergal O'Brien 233 32 13.7% −77.76
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
39
Archived wins
£351k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 12 wins
Nap Hand (IRE) — Scone Estates Stone Of Destiny Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race) Perth · Aug 2026 · Class 2
£13,008
Espoir De Teillee (FR) — Pytchley Open Hunters' Chase Leicester · Feb 2023 · Class 3
£7,700
I Still Have Faith (GB) — Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire (Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2023 · Class 4
£7,451
Notable horses
Cooler Than Me (GB) Casting Aspersions (IRE) Zhang Fei (FR) Mistral Blue (GB) Jager Time (IRE) Lord P (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Champs Elysees (GB) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,132 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Blue Bresil (FR) 15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,569 runs since 2013 (469 horses).
Camelot (GB) 15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,741 runs since 2017 (759 horses).
Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,913 runs since 2013 (689 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,863 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 821.
Passing Glance (GB) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,585 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 307 · newest first

The latest 50 of 307 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 August 2021 to 14 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Nov 26 Wetherby Check The Score (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Boyle Sports Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 4th 4/1
13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Snatch A Glance (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien AIS Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 18 ran 10th 33/1
12 Nov 26 Hereford Zenato (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Firm · 9 ran PU 18/1
09 Nov 26 Stratford Molly's Lad (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien 31 Days Free Racing TV At racingtv.com/freetrial Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 1st 100/30
08 Nov 26 Sandown Minella Crooner (IRE)T: Matt Crawley Visit oddschecker.com Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 20f · Good · 6 ran PU 66/1
07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Chicker (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Matchbook Signup Get 20% Back On Losses Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 4th 4/1
05 Nov 26 Newbury General Briar (IRE)T: Chris Gordon OLBG Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 11th 14/1
04 Nov 26 Chepstow Cool Customer (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Free Tips On attheraces.com Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 3rd 6/1
03 Nov 26 Lingfield Cooler Than Me (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 5/2F
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Kamsinas (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 11/1
28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Miss Spec (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Thankyou & Farewell Dr. Tim Tilsley Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 8/1
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Stoner's Choice (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran PU 66/1
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Wild Goose (IRE)T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 6/1
21 Oct 26 Fontwell County Champs (IRE)T: Chris Gordon tigerbet.co.uk Extra Place Races Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 7/2
17 Oct 26 Stratford Mojo Ego (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Annual Membership For Christmas Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 4/1
16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Div Ine Glance (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien QuinnBet Mares' National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 6th 12/1
16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Zenato (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien We Buy Cars On The Go Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran PU 14/1
15 Oct 26 Fontwell Goodwin (IRE)T: Chris Gordon BETTING.BET Free Racing Tips Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 5th 10/1
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Milly Ocean (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 5/2
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Jager Time (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 0, 2 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 7 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · to 8 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Fern O'Brien's strike rate?
Fern O'Brien has won 39 of 307 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.7% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Fern O'Brien ride most for?
Fergal O'Brien, with 233 rides since 2008 — 76% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (13.7%).
Is Fern O'Brien in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Fern O'Brien's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 305 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).