Harry Haynes
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 24% (92 rides).
The record is strongest at Kelso (15.3%, n=98), clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 23.9% (n=92, Fair A/E 1.38), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.8% (n=272, Fair A/E 0.95). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.1% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +14.00 to a £1 stake over 264 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. James Ewart supplied 18% of the rides and beats the rider's average (14.8% vs 7.9%, A/E 1.14) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well in Chase races (13.9%, n=346) and on Heavy going (15.2%, n=105). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock (Jan 2012, £28,475). Seasonally, the rider fired Mar–Apr.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,248 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,248 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 June 2005 to 10 April 2015.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Harry Haynes's strike rate?
- Harry Haynes has won 94 of 1,185 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Harry Haynes do best at?
- Kelso by strike rate: 15 wins from 98 rides (15.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Harry Haynes ride most for?
- James Ewart, with 210 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 31 (14.8%).
- What is Harry Haynes's Fair A/E?
- 0.96, from 1,183 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.