What is Jack Mitchell's strike rate?

Jack Mitchell has won 1,131 of 7,816 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 14.5% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jack Mitchell do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 73 wins from 405 rides (18%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jack Mitchell ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 1,367 rides since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 293 (21.4%).

Is Jack Mitchell in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Jack Mitchell's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 7,774 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jack Mitchell

7,816 rides in the lifetime window · 3,941 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 11 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,131–7,816

Wins / Runs

14.5%

Strike rate

n=7,816

2,862 (37%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=7,774 · 0.89 incl. margin

−804.30

£1 level stake

n=7,816 at SP · −10.3%

£11.9m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 410 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 22% (864 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 7,816 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 36.3% when favourite Roger Varian: 21.4% from 1,367 LTO winners: 21.8% Rides the favourite in 16% of races

The read

It is weakest at Newmarket (6.9% over 202 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 21.8% (n=864, Fair A/E 1.00), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 8.7% (n=275, Fair A/E 0.82). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 13.1% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.29 and +76.61 to a £1 stake over 518 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Roger Varian supplies 17% of the rides and beats the rider's average (21.4% vs 14.5%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. 24 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Cup Handicap at York (Jul 2024, £103,080). The standout partner of the record: Documenting (GB) — 7 wins from 24 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

13.2%−1.3

n=3,932 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −269.81

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

21.8%+7.3

n=864 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −112.93

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

14.1%−0.4

n=1,208 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −137.08

When favourite

36.3%

n=1,250 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −75.57

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13.1%−1.4

n=518 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +76.61

Big fields · 14+ runners

8.9%−5.6

n=875 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +109.29

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.7%−5.8

n=275 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −80.12

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Roger Varian 21.4% vs 14.5% · n=1,367

On last-time-out winners 21.8% vs 14.5% · n=864

With Simon & Ed Crisford 22.8% vs 14.5% · n=337

At Newmarket 6.9% vs 14.5% · n=202

With horses switching code 5.3% vs 14.5% · n=75

With Amanda Perrett 5.6% vs 14.5% · n=54

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 7,815 1131 14.5% −803.30

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 4,181 646 15.5% −522.10

Good to Firm 1,465 217 14.8% −78.53

Good 1,111 152 13.7% +97.93

Good to Soft 503 56 11.1% −109.12

Soft 405 43 10.6% −135.23

Heavy 100 9 9% −36.90

Firm 51 8 15.7% −20.35

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 1,042 175 16.8% −57.25

Kempton (AW) 1,015 123 12.1% −190.38

Lingfield (AW) 777 131 16.9% −55.95

Chelmsford (AW) 582 89 15.3% −36.89

Yarmouth 441 74 16.8% +34.70

Newcastle (AW) 405 73 18% −106.00

Southwell (AW) 357 55 15.4% −72.63

Windsor 333 41 12.3% −54.64

Newmarket 233 31 13.3% −5.77

Doncaster 210 30 14.3% −1.85

Newmarket 202 14 6.9% −85.00

Nottingham 187 16 8.6% −79.69

Salisbury 168 21 12.5% −36.19

Bath 144 23 16% −10.14

Newbury 138 13 9.4% +123.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,961 477 16.1% −189.48

Class 4 1,765 235 13.3% −340.22

Class 6 1,764 246 13.9% −151.54

Class 3 562 87 15.5% −64.20

Class 2 460 59 12.8% −25.54

Class 1 274 23 8.4% −80.32

Class 7 27 4 14.8% +50.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,418 487 34.3% 1.06 −112.61

2nd–3rd fav 2,210 372 16.8% 0.99 −345.19

4th–6th fav 2,301 192 8.3% 1.03 −376.00

7th+ in betting 1,887 80 4.2% 1.25 +29.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 3,051 437 14.3% −352.26

1m – 1m1f 1,989 274 13.8% −236.05

1m2f – 1m4f 1,714 268 15.6% −104.70

Under 6f 670 96 14.3% −9.52

1m5f – 2m 381 55 14.4% −93.02

2m1f – 2m4f 10 1 10% −7.75

2m5f – 3m 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 267 36 13.5% +36.92

2009 310 40 12.9% +52.69

2010 388 50 12.9% +17.35

2011 251 28 11.2% +12.91

2012 69 4 5.8% −38.17

2013 99 4 4% −16.50

2014 144 14 9.7% −5.85

2015 195 25 12.8% −28.78

2016 260 39 15% −17.22

2017 343 41 12% −103.69

2018 485 66 13.6% −83.46

2019 524 89 17% −101.48

2020 627 103 16.4% −118.37

2021 716 116 16.2% +68.92

2022 635 112 17.6% −77.97

2023 608 103 16.9% −100.30

2024 660 94 14.2% −126.34

2025 647 91 14.1% −112.90

2026 588 76 12.9% −62.06

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,878 709 14.5% −172.41

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,863 429 15% −264.73

11-13 runners 2,529 326 12.9% −270.04

5-7 runners 1,432 268 18.7% −357.80

14-16 runners 714 64 9% +24.79

17+ runners 161 14 8.7% +84.50

2-4 runners 117 30 25.6% −21.02

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Choral Clan (IRE) 35 6 21 21 Dec 17

Documenting (GB) 24 7 12 15 Aug 26

The Tichborne (IRE) 20 5 9 29 Apr 16

Thapa VC (IRE) 18 3 7 12 May 26

Kasbah (IRE) 18 1 8 19 Sep 18

Bold Argument (IRE) 17 4 6 3 Sep 09

Storm Catcher (IRE) 16 5 8 12 Mar 26

Full Intention (GB) 16 4 8 16 Feb 23

Solveig's Song (GB) 15 3 4 7 Aug 19

Al Barez (GB) 14 3 6 11 Jun 26

Red Walls (GB) 14 3 6 26 Jan 26

Rogue Force (IRE) 14 3 6 15 Feb 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 3,941 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

171615151314151315141416

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

17% of all rides
21.4% SR · A/E 1.03

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 1,367 293 21.4% −120.51

Tom Clover 479 68 14.2% −87.93

Chris Wall 369 57 15.4% −53.90

Simon & Ed Crisford 337 77 22.8% −46.02

Roger Teal 299 46 15.4% +70.78

Hugo Palmer 218 37 17% −33.04

Charlie Johnston 184 25 13.6% −60.51

Kevin Frost 179 28 15.6% +85.45

Peter Chapple-Hyam 169 22 13% −26.42

Simon Crisford 130 28 21.5% −24.66

Heather Main 103 16 15.5% +159.70

Simon Pearce 99 17 17.2% +37.40

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,147

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£12.0m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 116 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Enfjaar (IRE) — John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Jul 2024 · Class 2

£103,080

Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) — BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Apr 2026 · Class 2

£77,310

Royal Champion (IRE) — Wolferton Stakes (Listed) Ascot · Jun 2023 · Listed

£62,381

Notable horses

Documenting (GB) Choral Clan (IRE) The Tichborne (IRE) Storm Catcher (IRE) Bold Argument (IRE) Full Intention (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 13.8% · 26–189

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,601 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Dark Angel (IRE) 17.1% · 32–187

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,948 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Showcasing (GB) 20.1% · 28–139

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,654 runs since 2014 (999 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 14.5% · 19–131

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,038 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Dubawi (IRE) 28.9% · 33–114

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,985 runs since 2009 (1,530 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 16.8% · 19–113

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,223 runs since 2014 (1,109 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,006 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,006 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 21 February 2005 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Hozam (IRE)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 25/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Lady Roxby (GB)T: Michael Herrington Awc Season 14 Has Begun Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 4/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Twilight Dawn (GB)T: Simon Whitaker Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 28/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Galba (GB)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 15/2

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Flick Of An Eye (IRE)T: Simon Crisford Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 11/10F

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Love You More (GB)T: Joseph Parr Aw Trails Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 4/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Geometry (GB)T: Roger Varian Awc Season 14 Has Begun Ebf Maiden Stakes (Div II) (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 10/11F

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Quite Simple (AUS)T: Simon Crisford AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 18/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Silent City (GB)T: Roger Varian CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 15 ran 8th 17/2

22 Oct 26 Newmarket State Emperor (IRE)T: Roger Varian CopyBet For Europa League Profit Boosts EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 9/2

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Celtic Chariot (IRE)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Purosangue (GB)T: Robert Cowell Cavani Best Dressed Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 10/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Telemark (IRE)T: Simon & Ed Crisford Race And Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 8.5f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Champion Again Ole (IRE)T: Roger Varian Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 5/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Honeymoon Bear (IRE)T: Joseph Parr Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sacred Rhythm (IRE)T: Joseph Parr Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

17 Oct 26 Ascot Indalo (IRE)T: Roger Varian Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing)Class 2 · 8f · Good · 20 ran 2nd 16/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Harry's Halo (IRE)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 11/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Explosive Finnish (GB)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 6th 6/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Asheyra (IRE)T: Roger Varian Jill Wilcox Jones Memorial EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 3 ran 3rd 6/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 3) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 2) · to 27 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Jack Mitchell's strike rate?: Jack Mitchell has won 1,131 of 7,816 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 14.5% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jack Mitchell do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 73 wins from 405 rides (18%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jack Mitchell ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 1,367 rides since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 293 (21.4%).
Is Jack Mitchell in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jack Mitchell's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 7,774 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.