What is Lizzie Kelly's strike rate?

Lizzie Kelly has won 73 of 549 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lizzie Kelly do best at?

Exeter by strike rate: 10 wins from 37 rides (27%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lizzie Kelly ride most for?

Nick Williams, with 380 rides since 2008 — 69% of the total. That pairing has won 60 (15.8%).

What is Lizzie Kelly's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 549 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lizzie Kelly

549 rides in the lifetime window · 154 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Mar 2020 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

73–549

Wins / Runs

13.3%

Strike rate

n=549

179 (33%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=549 · 0.88 incl. margin

−56.06

£1 level stake

n=549 at SP · −10.2%

£1.49m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (77 rides). Rode mostly for Nick Williams — 69% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 549 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Dec–Jan 30% when favourite Nick Williams: 15.8% from 380 LTO winners: 19.5% Claiming: 14.8% Rode the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Exeter (27%, n=37), clear of the rider's 13.3% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.5% (n=77, Fair A/E 1.07), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8.9% (n=124, Fair A/E 0.73). Nick Williams supplied 69% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15.8% vs 13.3%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well in Class 4 (19.4%, n=180). The record read poorly beyond 3m — 5.1% over 39 rides, 8.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.67 across 61 rides (8.2% strike, −36.97 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (Feb 2016, £88,273). The standout partner of the record was Tea For Two (GB) — 9 wins from 35 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.4%−2.9

n=154 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −1.17

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19.5%+6.2

n=77 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +7.62

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.9%−4.4

n=124 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −54.22

When favourite

30%

n=70 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −15.18

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

14.8%+1.5

n=431 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −16.04

Big fields · 14+ runners

14.3%+1.0

n=84 · A/E 1.75 · £1 +52.40

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.2%−3.1

n=108 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −10.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Exeter 27% vs 13.3% · n=37

In Class 4 19.4% vs 13.3% · n=180

Beyond 3m 5.1% vs 13.3% · n=39

On last-time-out winners 19.5% vs 13.3% · n=77

In Class 5 7.7% vs 13.3% · n=52

Off a break of 180+ days 8.2% vs 13.3% · n=61

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 357 47 13.2% −11.82

Chase 149 20 13.4% −43.04

NH Flat 43 6 14% −1.20

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 173 17 9.8% −51.07

Soft 159 26 16.4% +4.74

Good to Soft 123 18 14.6% +23.89

Heavy 68 8 11.8% −18.03

Good to Firm 25 4 16% −14.59

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 56 7 12.5% +5.00

Exeter 37 10 27% +7.19

Newbury 29 5 17.2% +13.00

Fontwell 28 2 7.1% −12.00

Taunton 28 7 25% +3.33

Kempton 26 5 19.2% −1.13

Ffos Las 22 5 22.7% −1.08

Newton Abbot 19 1 5.3% −2.00

Chepstow 19 2 10.5% +36.00

Auteuil (FR) 19 1 5.3% −15.60

Uttoxeter 18 4 22.2% −1.37

Wincanton 18 1 5.6% +1.00

Ludlow 18 1 5.6% −15.00

Warwick 17 3 17.6% −9.17

Huntingdon 17 3 17.6% +22.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 180 35 19.4% +40.01

Class 1 109 11 10.1% −11.25

Class 3 106 10 9.4% −53.25

Class 2 53 6 11.3% −7.52

Class 5 52 4 7.7% −22.50

Class 6 29 6 20.7% +15.05

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 80 23 28.8% 0.96 −14.18

2nd–3rd fav 178 29 16.3% 0.99 −28.38

4th–6th fav 183 17 9.3% 1.19 +13.50

7th+ in betting 108 4 3.7% 1.11 −27.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.2% completed · 506 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 149 76.5% 6 9 19 0 1

Hurdle 357 87.4% 9 5 31 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tea For Two (GB) 35 9 15 13 Dec 19

Aubusson (FR) 24 4 7 5 Mar 20

Culture De Sivola (FR) 21 4 10 29 Feb 20

Coo Star Sivola (FR) 18 4 7 12 Mar 19

Agrapart (FR) 17 4 6 6 Apr 19

Diable De Sivola (FR) 15 1 9 24 Mar 19

Horatio Hornblower (IRE) 14 3 6 31 Dec 17

Night Of Sin (FR) 13 3 5 21 Mar 19

Siruh Du Lac (FR) 12 6 8 12 Mar 20

Monsieur Lecoq (FR) 11 2 4 23 Feb 20

Cabernet D'alene (FR) 10 3 4 2 Dec 18

After Eight Sivola (FR) 10 2 4 12 Oct 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 154 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

20101312801491881420

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardNick Williams

69% of all rides
15.8% SR · A/E 1.15

TrainerRWSR£1

Nick Williams 380 60 15.8% +32.31

Jane Williams 61 6 9.8% −22.58

Neil King 35 6 17.1% −1.79

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.49m

Prize money

2017

Best season · 18 wins

Agrapart (FR) — Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap) Newbury · Feb 2016 · Grade 3

£88,273

Tea For Two (GB) — Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2017 · Grade 1

£84,365

Coo Star Sivola (FR) — Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cheltenham · Mar 2018 · Grade 3

£62,645

Notable horses

Tea For Two (GB) Siruh Du Lac (FR) Aubusson (FR) Culture De Sivola (FR) Coo Star Sivola (FR) Agrapart (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Assessor (IRE) 17% · 8–47

Progeny have won 9.3% of 952 runs since 2008 (106 horses). Weakest on Good going: 4.9% from 143.

Kayf Tara (GB) 20.9% · 9–43

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,756 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Ballingarry (IRE) 16.7% · 4–24

Progeny have won 10.4% of 2,432 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 125.

Martaline (GB) 20.8% · 5–24

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,347 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Presenting (GB) 18.2% · 4–22

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 15% of 5,359 runs since 2008 (643 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 549 · newest first

The latest 50 of 549 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 October 2009 to 17 March 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Mar 20 Taunton After The Fox (GB)T: Jane Williams Join Racing TV Now Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 6/1

14 Mar 20 Uttoxeter Tea Time Fred (GB)T: Sue Gardner Marston's Brewery Lady Riders' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 23.5f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 25/1

12 Mar 20 Cheltenham Siruh Du Lac (FR)T: Nick Williams Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 20.5f · Soft · 23 ran F 14/1

05 Mar 20 Wincanton Aubusson (FR)T: Jane Williams Download The Star Sports App Now! Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25f · Soft · 7 ran UR 20/1

29 Feb 20 Doncaster Culture De Sivola (FR)T: Nick Williams 888sport Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 24.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 6th 28/1

23 Feb 20 Fontwell Monsieur Lecoq (FR)T: Jane Williams Stella Artois National Spirit Hurdle (Grade 2)Class 1 · 19f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 4/1

23 Feb 20 Fontwell Fox Pro (FR)T: Jane Williams Racehorse Sanctuary Remembers Moorcroft Boy Beginners' ChaseClass 3 · 19.5f · Soft · 3 ran 2nd 4/1

22 Feb 20 Kempton Erick Le Rouge (FR)T: Jane Williams Betway Pendil Novices' Chase (Grade 2)Class 1 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 8/1

01 Feb 20 Leopardstown Monsieur Lecoq (FR)T: Jane Williams PCI Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)16f · Yielding · 9 ran 7th 25/1

24 Jan 20 Doncaster Galice Macalo (FR)T: Jane Williams Sky Bet Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 9/2

21 Jan 20 Exeter Fox Pro (FR)T: Jane Williams Dare To Dream Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap)Class 3 · 19f · Heavy · 4 ran 2nd 11/4

18 Jan 20 Taunton Folly Gate (FR)T: Jane Williams British EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 7/1

11 Jan 20 Kempton Erick Le Rouge (FR)T: Jane Williams Unibet Download The App Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 7/2

08 Jan 20 Ludlow Aubusson (FR)T: Jane Williams Vobe Electrics Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 10/1

26 Dec 19 Wincanton Sparky Valentine (FR)T: Jane Williams Simple Landlords Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 10 ran F 14/1

21 Dec 19 Haydock Moonlighter (GB)T: Jane Williams Betway Novices' ChaseClass 3 · 16.5f · Heavy · 3 ran UR 11/8

14 Dec 19 Cheltenham Monsieur Lecoq (FR)T: Jane Williams Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2)Class 1 · 17f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 8/1

13 Dec 19 Cheltenham Tea For Two (GB)T: Jane Williams Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 30f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 8th 33/1

12 Dec 19 Taunton Folly Gate (FR)T: Jane Williams Racing To School Novices' Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 40/1

12 Dec 19 Taunton Rococo River (GB)T: Jane Williams Racing To School Novices' Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lizzie Kelly's strike rate?: Lizzie Kelly has won 73 of 549 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lizzie Kelly do best at?: Exeter by strike rate: 10 wins from 37 rides (27%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lizzie Kelly ride most for?: Nick Williams, with 380 rides since 2008 — 69% of the total. That pairing has won 60 (15.8%).
What is Lizzie Kelly's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 549 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.