What is Lorcan Williams's strike rate?

Lorcan Williams has won 179 of 1,396 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lorcan Williams do best at?

Fontwell by strike rate: 11 wins from 43 rides (25.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lorcan Williams ride most for?

Paul Nicholls, with 441 rides since 2008 — 32% of the total. That pairing has won 78 (17.7%).

Is Lorcan Williams in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 14 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Lorcan Williams's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 1,392 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lorcan Williams

1,396 rides in the lifetime window · 698 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

179–1,396

Wins / Runs

12.8%

Strike rate

n=1,396

458 (33%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=1,392 · 0.84 incl. margin

−337.67

£1 level stake

n=1,395 at SP · −24.2%

£3.09m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 70 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 18% (180 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,396 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 34.8% when favourite Paul Nicholls: 17.7% from 441 LTO winners: 18.3% Claiming: 13.6% Rides the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fontwell (25.6%, n=43) and Taunton (19.8%, n=91) — all clear of the rider's 12.8% baseline. It is weakest at Uttoxeter (2.2% over 46 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.3% (n=180, Fair A/E 0.84), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 7.3% (n=219, Fair A/E 1.05). Paul Nicholls supplies 32% of the rides and edges the rider's average (17.7% vs 12.8%, A/E 0.96). 10 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy at Cheltenham (Mar 2025, £255,006). The standout partner of the record: Golden Ace (GB) — 7 wins from 17 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.7%−1.1

n=698 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −205.47

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.3%+5.5

n=180 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −50.18

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.2%−2.6

n=393 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −165.94

When favourite

34.8%

n=187 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −33.11

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13.6%+0.8

n=513 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −135.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.3%−5.5

n=219 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −65.76

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.3%−0.5

n=81 · A/E 0.97 · £1 +23.64

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Fontwell 25.6% vs 12.8% · n=43

At Uttoxeter 2.2% vs 12.8% · n=46

With C&D winners 21.2% vs 12.8% · n=113

At Stratford 2.9% vs 12.8% · n=35

At Kempton 3% vs 12.8% · n=33

At Taunton 19.8% vs 12.8% · n=91

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 820 93 11.3% −182.18

Chase 444 67 15.1% −94.09

NH Flat 129 19 14.7% −58.40

Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 505 67 13.3% −170.77

Good to Soft 408 48 11.8% −54.86

Soft 296 37 12.5% −42.16

Heavy 160 23 14.4% −50.87

Good to Firm 25 4 16% −17.01

Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 147 20 13.6% −60.93

Wincanton 140 23 16.4% −3.43

Exeter 119 20 16.8% −20.89

Taunton 91 18 19.8% −15.02

Warwick 72 5 6.9% −48.50

Newton Abbot 71 8 11.3% −33.09

Ffos Las 70 9 12.9% −21.25

Ascot 50 9 18% +2.98

Hereford 48 5 10.4% −5.54

Uttoxeter 46 1 2.2% −39.00

Fontwell 43 11 25.6% +67.70

Newbury 41 8 19.5% −3.80

Worcester 39 2 5.1% −32.37

Cheltenham 38 5 13.2% +20.19

Stratford 35 1 2.9% −28.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 568 75 13.2% −53.97

Class 5 344 36 10.5% −195.81

Class 3 256 40 15.6% −62.19

Class 2 119 12 10.1% −44.31

Class 1 90 11 12.2% +24.64

Class 6 16 5 31.3% −3.03

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 213 68 31.9% 0.92 −48.36

2nd–3rd fav 346 65 18.8% 1.05 −50.81

4th–6th fav 445 33 7.4% 0.93 −78.00

7th+ in betting 391 12 3.1% 1.02 −160.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.5% completed · 1,264 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 444 77.7% 13 9 72 3 2

Hurdle 820 86.6% 9 13 85 1 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Golden Ace (GB) 17 7 12 22 Oct 26

Champagne Court (IRE) 16 3 8 31 Aug 24

Petticoat Lucy (IRE) 14 3 4 22 Nov 24

Gone Platinum (IRE) 13 5 9 9 Oct 19

Joe Cotton (IRE) 12 1 8 16 Jan 26

Leissieres Express (GB) 12 3 6 6 Dec 24

Lady Kk (IRE) 12 3 6 30 Nov 23

Truckers Lodge (IRE) 12 3 7 19 Mar 22

Definately Vinnie (GB) 12 0 4 22 Apr 21

Darling Maltaix (FR) 10 1 4 2 Feb 20

Champagne Chic (IRE) 9 2 3 24 Oct 26

Elusiveness (IRE) 9 3 4 18 Oct 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 698 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 14

Only 14 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

129152012115211111915

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPaul Nicholls

32% of all rides
17.7% SR · A/E 0.96

TrainerRWSR£1

Paul Nicholls 441 78 17.7% −109.05

Jeremy Scott 343 48 14% −17.97

Dan Skelton 38 2 5.3% −29.62

Ben Pauling 31 3 9.7% −14.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

179

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.09m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 27 wins

Golden Ace (GB) — Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2025 · Grade 1

£255,006

Truckers Lodge (IRE) — Marston's 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (Listed Open Handicap Chase) Uttoxeter · Mar 2020 · Listed

£84,478

Golden Ace (GB) — BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Newcastle · Nov 2025 · Grade 1

£69,669

Notable horses

Golden Ace (GB) Gone Platinum (IRE) Monsieur Gibraltar (FR) Champagne Court (IRE) Petticoat Lucy (IRE) Leissieres Express (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 19.1% · 9–47

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,769 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Westerner (GB) 14.3% · 6–42

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,873 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Shirocco (GER) 18.4% · 7–38

Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,207 runs since 2010 (927 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Kapgarde (FR) 16.2% · 6–37

Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,646 runs since 2008 (727 horses).

Getaway (GER) 12.1% · 4–33

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,040 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Fame And Glory (GB) 19.2% · 5–26

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,218 runs since 2016 (504 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,396 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,396 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 November 2015 to 11 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

11 Nov 26 Bangor-on-Dee Jupiter Allen (FR)T: Chester Williams Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 9/2

11 Nov 26 Bangor-on-Dee Jubilee Alpha (IRE)T: Faye Bramley Yorton Mares' Novices' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (For The Richard Aston Memorial Trophy) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 4/1

10 Nov 26 Huntingdon Sherborne (IRE)T: Joe Tizzard PricedUp Boosts And BOG Veterans' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 4/1

09 Nov 26 Stratford Clear Sky (GB)T: Jeremy Scott 31 Days Free Racing TV At racingtv.com/freetrial Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 50/1

09 Nov 26 Stratford Blackswan D'oroux (FR)T: Dan Skelton Stratford Extra Raceday 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 12/1

08 Nov 26 Sandown Triple Edge (GB)T: Chester Williams Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 6th 80/1

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Sea Warrior (IRE)T: Joe Tizzard OPC Home Guard Remembrance Handicap Steeple Chase (Fontwell Chase Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 6/5F

05 Nov 26 Newbury Coolnav (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Check Out The BetVictor Betbuilder Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 17/2

05 Nov 26 Newbury Firestream (GB)T: Chester Williams Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 6th 20/1

05 Nov 26 Newbury Princess Day (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Grahame Church Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 13/8F

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Great Dance (FR)T: Chester Williams DragonBet Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 100/30F

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Topsham Tide (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 20/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Beauty In The Park (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Copybet Pay First Past The Post Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 11/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Grand Garcon (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 11/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Champagne Chic (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 8th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Golden Ace (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Panoramic Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/4F

21 Oct 26 Fontwell Lakeview Lass (GB)T: Jeremy Scott tigerbet.co.uk Extra Place Races Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 40/1

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Havanotherguinness (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Sky Sports Racing Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot The Four Sixes (IRE)T: Chester Williams Konsileo Local Award Winning Commercial Insurer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 5th 13/2

12 Oct 26 Worcester Pop's Folly (IRE)T: Georgina Nicholls Richard Davis Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran PU 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 7 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 1) · to 11 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Lorcan Williams's strike rate?: Lorcan Williams has won 179 of 1,396 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lorcan Williams do best at?: Fontwell by strike rate: 11 wins from 43 rides (25.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lorcan Williams ride most for?: Paul Nicholls, with 441 rides since 2008 — 32% of the total. That pairing has won 78 (17.7%).
Is Lorcan Williams in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 14 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lorcan Williams's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 1,392 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.