What is Lucy Alexander's strike rate?

Lucy Alexander has won 180 of 1,983 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lucy Alexander do best at?

Cartmel by strike rate: 9 wins from 67 rides (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lucy Alexander ride most for?

N W Alexander, with 889 rides since 2008 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 95 (10.7%).

What is Lucy Alexander's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 1,980 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lucy Alexander

1,983 rides in the lifetime window · 635 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Nov 2020 94% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

180–1,983

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=1,983

451 (23%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=1,980 · 0.85 incl. margin

−418.97

£1 level stake

n=1,983 at SP · −21.1%

£1.26m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (193 rides). Rode mostly for N W Alexander — 45% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,983 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Dec–Mar 31.5% when favourite N W Alexander: 10.7% from 889 LTO winners: 15% Claiming: 9.9% Rode the favourite in 5% of races

The read

It is weakest at Catterick (3.1% over 64 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15% (n=193, Fair A/E 0.98), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 5.8% (n=635, Fair A/E 0.71). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −124.75 to a £1 stake over 423 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. N W Alexander supplied 45% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.7%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well on Heavy going (14.2%, n=295). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 4.3% over 207 rides, 4.8pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record was Jet Master (IRE) — 7 wins from 42 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.8%−3.3

n=635 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −189.03

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15%+5.9

n=193 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −44.05

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.1%−3.0

n=423 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −124.75

When favourite

31.5%

n=92 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −11.04

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.9%+0.8

n=740 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −32.63

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.9%−3.2

n=220 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −14.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.1

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 15% vs 9.1% · n=193

On Heavy going 14.2% vs 9.1% · n=295

With first-time headgear 2.7% vs 9.1% · n=75

Off a break of 180+ days 4.3% vs 9.1% · n=207

At Catterick 3.1% vs 9.1% · n=64

With debutants 3.6% vs 9.1% · n=83

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,049 95 9.1% −175.52

Chase 660 69 10.5% −94.42

NH Flat 164 10 6.1% −101.53

Flat 110 6 5.5% −47.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 566 47 8.3% −80.92

Soft 533 42 7.9% −183.82

Good to Soft 488 41 8.4% −82.95

Heavy 295 42 14.2% −47.84

Good to Firm 94 7 7.4% −17.91

Standard (AW) 6 1 16.7% −4.53

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kelso 277 32 11.6% +20.51

Ayr 249 22 8.8% −90.25

Perth 207 20 9.7% −47.50

Carlisle 170 12 7.1% −82.92

Musselburgh 165 18 10.9% −11.75

Newcastle 154 19 12.3% −16.12

Hexham 140 10 7.1% −62.75

Wetherby 115 7 6.1% −18.17

Sedgefield 112 11 9.8% −6.05

Cartmel 67 9 13.4% +65.96

Catterick 64 2 3.1% −41.00

Haydock 43 4 9.3% −22.40

Market Rasen 33 2 6.1% −17.00

Doncaster 25 2 8% −14.25

Uttoxeter 24 2 8.3% −11.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 869 78 9% −223.04

Class 5 543 50 9.2% −36.64

Class 3 313 35 11.2% −45.52

Class 6 151 12 7.9% −34.03

Class 2 81 5 6.2% −53.74

Class 1 22 0 0% −22.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 116 37 31.9% 1.10 −2.54

2nd–3rd fav 423 71 16.8% 1.01 −49.93

4th–6th fav 786 51 6.5% 0.83 −240.50

7th+ in betting 658 21 3.2% 0.95 −126.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

78.7% completed · 1,709 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 660 74.5% 19 33 114 0 2

Hurdle 1,049 81.3% 17 23 152 2 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Jet Master (IRE) 42 7 17 28 Mar 19

Little Glenshee (IRE) 30 6 15 16 Jan 17

Calivigny (IRE) 28 2 7 26 Apr 19

Another Mattie (IRE) 26 1 7 15 May 19

Landecker (IRE) 26 5 6 8 Apr 19

King's Chorister (GB) 26 1 8 30 Sep 16

Clan Legend (GB) 23 4 6 31 Oct 20

Marlee Massie (IRE) 20 3 5 9 Mar 19

Stanley Bridge (GB) 19 4 8 28 Jun 15

Pete (GB) 19 3 5 22 Jul 13

Buffalo Ballet (GB) 18 1 6 15 May 19

Benny's Secret (IRE) 18 2 4 28 Feb 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 635 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1111108691211107711

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardN W Alexander

45% of all rides
10.7% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

N W Alexander 889 95 10.7% −148.98

James Ewart 159 14 8.8% −47.12

Barry Murtagh 156 13 8.3% +15.08

Ferdy Murphy 106 7 6.6% −47.50

Jim Goldie 91 4 4.4% −64.25

Martin Todhunter 55 7 12.7% +27.50

Dianne Sayer 39 6 15.4% +1.33

James Moffatt 36 1 2.8% +15.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

180

Archived wins

£1.26m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 51 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Calivigny (IRE) — Smarkets Northern Lights Middle Distance Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Carlisle · Dec 2018 · Class 2

£21,746

Elvis Mail (FR) — Tennent's Cup Scottish Champion Hurdle Trial Handicap Hurdle Ayr · Nov 2019 · Class 2

£19,494

Jet Master (IRE) — Betway Hair Of The Dog Handicap Hurdle Musselburgh · Jan 2019 · Class 3

£14,556

Notable horses

Jet Master (IRE) Little Glenshee (IRE) Landecker (IRE) Red Tanber (IRE) Tipsy Dara (IRE) Elvis Mail (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Milan (GB) 6.2% · 4–65

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,860 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Gold Well (GB) 14.8% · 9–61

Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2008 (363 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 12.8% · 6–47

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Craigsteel (GB) 12.8% · 6–47

Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,393 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 291. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 763.

Terimon (GB) 20.5% · 9–44

Progeny have won 7.7% of 868 runs since 2008 (96 horses).

Brian Boru (GB) 16.3% · 7–43

Progeny have won 11% of 4,123 runs since 2008 (285 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,984 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,984 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 April 2007 to 13 November 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 20 Newcastle Chanting Hill (IRE)T: N W Alexander Download The QuinnBet App Mares' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran F 5/4F

13 Nov 20 Newcastle Eagle Ridge (IRE)T: N W Alexander QuinnBet Live Casino Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 11 ran 5th 11/2

13 Nov 20 Newcastle Arnica (GB)T: N W Alexander quinnbet.com Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 23.5f · Good · 14 ran 7th 33/1

12 Nov 20 Sedgefield Fernhill Lad (IRE)T: N W Alexander Sprayclad Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 250/1

11 Nov 20 Ayr Minuit Ciel (GB)T: N W Alexander Follow WillHillRacing On Twitter Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 20/1

11 Nov 20 Ayr Elvis Mail (FR)T: N W Alexander William Hill Extra Places Every Day Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Soft · 4 ran 1st 9/4

11 Nov 20 Ayr Off The Hook (IRE)T: N W Alexander William Hill Play Responsibly Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 6/1

11 Nov 20 Ayr Wakool (FR)T: N W Alexander williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 13/2

07 Nov 20 Kelso Let There Be Love (IRE)T: N W Alexander Belhaven Brewery Standard Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 16/1

07 Nov 20 Kelso Artic Mann (GB)T: N W Alexander Urwin Family Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 21f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 16/1

07 Nov 20 Kelso Broadway Joe (IRE)T: N W Alexander Urwin Family Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 21f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 12th 13/2

06 Nov 20 Hexham Charm Offensive (FR)T: N W Alexander carpetgallop.co.uk Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 66/1

05 Nov 20 Sedgefield Gipsy Lee Rose (FR)T: N W Alexander Maurice Perkins Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 50/1

05 Nov 20 Sedgefield Alright Marlene (IRE)T: Jacqueline Coward Tejays Horseboxes - Bespoke, Custom Built Horseboxes Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 33/1

04 Nov 20 Musselburgh Ballynanty (IRE)T: N W Alexander Bet At racingtv.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Good · 11 ran 8th 50/1

04 Nov 20 Musselburgh Not The Chablis (IRE)T: N W Alexander Join Racing TV Now Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 14/1

31 Oct 20 Ayr Pammi (GB)T: Jim Goldie Tennent's Cup Scottish Champion Hurdle Trial Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 16f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 22/1

31 Oct 20 Ayr Clan Legend (GB)T: N W Alexander Join Racing TV Now Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 16.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 8/1

31 Oct 20 Ayr Off The Hook (IRE)T: N W Alexander Ayr Racecourse Sunday Market Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 24.5f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 11/1

31 Oct 20 Ayr Craiganboy (IRE)T: N W Alexander Support Jim Beaumont's Greatest Challenge At gofundme.com Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20.5f · Heavy · 9 ran RR 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lucy Alexander's strike rate?: Lucy Alexander has won 180 of 1,983 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lucy Alexander do best at?: Cartmel by strike rate: 9 wins from 67 rides (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lucy Alexander ride most for?: N W Alexander, with 889 rides since 2008 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 95 (10.7%).
What is Lucy Alexander's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 1,980 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.