What is Mitchell Bastyan's strike rate?

Mitchell Bastyan has won 99 of 920 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Mitchell Bastyan do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 10 wins from 49 rides (20.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Mitchell Bastyan ride most for?

Milton Harris, with 275 rides since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (16.4%).

What is Mitchell Bastyan's Fair A/E?

0.92, from 918 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Mitchell Bastyan

920 rides in the lifetime window · 408 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2023 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

99–920

Wins / Runs

10.8%

Strike rate

n=920

266 (29%)

Placed

0.92

Fair A/E

n=918 · 0.80 incl. margin

−277.87

£1 level stake

n=920 at SP · −30.2%

£1.03m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (97 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 920 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Oct 30.7% when favourite Milton Harris: 16.4% from 275 LTO winners: 15.5% Claiming: 11% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newton Abbot (20.4%, n=49), clear of the rider's 10.8% baseline. It is weakest at Worcester (3.1% over 32 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.5% (n=97, Fair A/E 0.79), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6% (n=149, Fair A/E 0.88). Milton Harris supplies 30% of the rides and beats the rider's average (16.4% vs 10.8%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (33.3%, n=39) and beyond 3m (17.4%, n=92). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Rugby Betting At 188bet Handicap Chase at Aintree (Nov 2017, £46,425). Seasonally, the rider fires Sep–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.8%+0.0

n=408 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −63.26

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.5%+4.7

n=97 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −35.52

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.5%−0.3

n=191 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −49.67

When favourite

30.7%

n=101 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −22.36

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11%+0.2

n=643 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −148.43

Big fields · 14+ runners

6%−4.8

n=149 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −51.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.1%−3.7

n=28 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 33.3% vs 10.8% · n=39

At Newton Abbot 20.4% vs 10.8% · n=49

With Milton Harris 16.4% vs 10.8% · n=275

Beyond 3m 17.4% vs 10.8% · n=92

On Good to Soft going 16% vs 10.8% · n=200

At Worcester 3.1% vs 10.8% · n=32

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 594 66 11.1% −183.51

Chase 250 24 9.6% −71.13

NH Flat 72 9 12.5% −19.23

Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 343 29 8.5% −198.46

Soft 220 16 7.3% −132.94

Good to Soft 200 32 16% −1.21

Heavy 103 9 8.7% +33.00

Good to Firm 39 13 33.3% +36.74

Standard (AW) 15 0 0% −15.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wincanton 70 10 14.3% +39.58

Fontwell 55 6 10.9% −25.63

Stratford 53 5 9.4% −23.87

Ffos Las 50 3 6% −32.27

Newton Abbot 49 10 20.4% −3.30

Chepstow 48 4 8.3% −12.12

Taunton 48 5 10.4% +3.37

Uttoxeter 44 2 4.5% −24.50

Hereford 39 4 10.3% −0.75

Exeter 39 7 17.9% −6.27

Plumpton 39 6 15.4% −7.75

Ludlow 37 3 8.1% −19.25

Worcester 32 1 3.1% −29.75

Bangor-on-Dee 26 4 15.4% −8.00

Warwick 23 1 4.3% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 372 40 10.8% −127.72

Class 5 357 37 10.4% −112.08

Class 3 107 16 15% −16.07

Class 2 44 4 9.1% −6.00

Class 1 29 2 6.9% −5.00

Class 6 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 115 32 27.8% 0.89 −30.86

2nd–3rd fav 223 36 16.1% 0.94 −45.51

4th–6th fav 309 28 9.1% 1.12 −28.50

7th+ in betting 273 3 1.1% 0.37 −173.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87.4% completed · 844 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 250 80.8% 9 9 30 0 0

Hurdle 594 90.2% 14 10 34 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Sutter's Mill (IRE) 16 2 6 19 Dec 19

Wetanwindy (GB) 12 1 7 1 Oct 22

Mi Laddo (IRE) 12 1 3 23 Aug 22

Mr Yeats (IRE) 12 2 5 13 Jul 22

Flight To Milan (IRE) 12 0 4 30 Jan 20

Pyramid Place (IRE) 10 2 5 31 Mar 23

Auenwirbel (GER) 9 1 3 15 Feb 22

Aliomaana (GB) 8 3 5 15 Oct 22

Appreciate (IRE) 8 4 5 8 Oct 22

Achy Breaky Heart (IRE) 8 2 3 15 May 22

Checkitsme (GB) 8 0 2 14 Feb 22

Gaia Vallis (FR) 8 1 3 28 Nov 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 408 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6129114151742314117

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMilton Harris

30% of all rides
16.4% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

Milton Harris 275 45 16.4% −32.75

Evan Williams 158 16 10.1% −56.14

David Bridgwater 93 8 8.6% −43.50

Johnny Farrelly 77 8 10.4% −25.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.03m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 27 wins

On Tour (IRE) — Rugby Betting At 188bet Handicap Chase Aintree · Nov 2017 · Class 2

£46,425

Court Minstrel (IRE) — totepool Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Chepstow · Oct 2017 · Grade 3

£28,475

Still Believing (IRE) — George Smith Horseboxes Mares' Handicap Chase (Series Final) Hereford · Dec 2018 · Class 2

£21,679

Notable horses

Appreciate (IRE) Still Believing (IRE) Aliomaana (GB) Sergeant (FR) Mullenbeg (IRE) Sutter's Mill (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Milan (GB) 11.5% · 3–26

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,890 runs since 2008 (1,465 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,857 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Presenting (GB) 0% · 0–20

Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,688 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.

Gold Well (GB) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).

Arcadio (GER) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,981 runs since 2011 (375 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 920 · newest first

The latest 50 of 920 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2015 to 31 May 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 May 23 Warwick Stepney Causeway (GB)T: Milton Harris Fisher German Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 2nd 11/4

28 May 23 Uttoxeter Getalady (IRE)T: Stella Barclay holdcroft.com Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 6th 200/1

10 May 23 Fontwell Lanspark (IRE)T: Robbie Llewellyn Vickers.Bet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Good · 6 ran 4th 4/1

09 May 23 Ffos Las Feel The Pinch (GB)T: Robbie Llewellyn DragonBet Backing Welsh Sport Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 4/1F

06 May 23 Uttoxeter Jumbo Veste Verte (FR)T: Tom Gretton Marston's Brewery 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 250/1

25 Apr 23 Ffos Las Getbazoutofhere (GB)T: Tom Gretton Oil 4 Wales Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 10/1

22 Apr 23 Bangor-on-Dee Twasn't The Plan (IRE)T: Robbie Llewellyn Alfa Aggregate Products Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 4th 16/1

22 Apr 23 Bangor-on-Dee Feel The Pinch (GB)T: Robbie Llewellyn Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 17.5f · Good · 9 ran UR 9/2

21 Apr 23 Fontwell Ikarak (FR)T: Milton Harris Klafs UK Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good · 2 ran 2nd 7/4

20 Apr 23 Cheltenham Komedy Kicks (IRE)T: Milton Harris Safran Landing Systems Fillies' Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 9th 22/1

19 Apr 23 Cheltenham Loup De Maulde (FR)T: Robbie Llewellyn Kingston Stud Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 22/1

16 Apr 23 Huntingdon Lanspark (IRE)T: Robbie Llewellyn Skomal Memorial Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 11/1

15 Apr 23 Chepstow He's My Shadow (IRE)T: Robbie Llewellyn DragonBet Proud To Be Welsh Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 6/1

10 Apr 23 Fakenham Star For A Day (IRE)T: Simon Hodgson Racing TV Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 22/1

10 Apr 23 Fakenham Havaila (IRE)T: Milton Harris Fisher Electrical Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 2 ran 1st 1/8F

08 Apr 23 Newton Abbot Knowwhentoholdem (IRE)T: Milton Harris Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18.5f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 8/1

01 Apr 23 Stratford Titan Discovery (GB)T: Robbie Llewellyn Hilda Peak Happy Birthday 9th April Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 2nd 9/1

01 Apr 23 Stratford Getbazoutofhere (GB)T: Tom Gretton Crown Workforce Management Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 22f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 16/1

01 Apr 23 Stratford Feel The Pinch (GB)T: Robbie Llewellyn Laurie Cole Big Birthday Celebration Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 5/2

31 Mar 23 Wetherby Pyramid Place (IRE)T: Milton Harris Join Racing TV Now Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 15/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mitchell Bastyan's strike rate?: Mitchell Bastyan has won 99 of 920 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mitchell Bastyan do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 10 wins from 49 rides (20.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Mitchell Bastyan ride most for?: Milton Harris, with 275 rides since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (16.4%).
What is Mitchell Bastyan's Fair A/E?: 0.92, from 918 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.