Simon Hodgson
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 100 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.85). New recruits from other yards win at 10% first time out (31 runs).
It is weakest at Windsor (0% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 3.1% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.60). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.53 and −165.17 to a £1 stake over 242 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. William Carver rides 36% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (4.5% vs 7.4%, A/E 0.56). The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (14.1%, n=92). The stable star of the record: Twilight Madness (GB) — 10 wins from 58 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Feb.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2012→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 997 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 997 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 May 2012 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Simon Hodgson's strike rate?
- Simon Hodgson has won 37 of 501 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Simon Hodgson do best at?
- Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 runners (11.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Simon Hodgson?
- William Carver, with 179 runners since 2022 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (4.5%).
- Is Simon Hodgson in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Simon Hodgson's Fair A/E?
- 0.85, from 494 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.