Mr A Fitzgerald
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode 185 times in our archive record (2005–2007), winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across that record (Fair A/E 0.44).
The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.58 and −114.00 to a £1 stake over 152 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Paul Nolan supplied 28% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.9%, A/E 0.42). The rider also read well in Flat races (5.7%, n=35). The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.00 across 53 rides (0% strike, −53.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 2005–2007Riding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 185 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 185 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 1 June 2007.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mr A Fitzgerald's strike rate?
- Mr A Fitzgerald has won 5 of 185 rides between 2005 and 2007, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
- Which yard does Mr A Fitzgerald ride most for?
- Paul Nolan, with 51 rides between 2005 and 2007 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (3.9%).
- What is Mr A Fitzgerald's Fair A/E?
- 0.44, from 185 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2007. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.