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Trainer profile

Paul Collins

78 runners in the last 5 seasons · 23 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Sep 2025
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–78
Wins / Runs
7.7%
Strike rate
n=78
15 (19%)
Placed
1.07
Fair A/E
n=78 · 0.92 incl. margin
−20.15
£1 level stake
n=78 at SP · −25.8%
£60,352
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13.3%+5.6
n=15 · A/E 2.79 · £1 +0.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+3.4
n=9 · A/E 2.46 · £1 +3.00
Debutants · first career start
9.1%+1.4
n=11 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
50%
n=6 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +1.85
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.1%−0.6
n=28 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −4.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 4 0% vs 7.7% · n=30
In Hurdle races 10.9% vs 7.7% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 46 5 10.9% −5.15
Flat 18 0 0% −18.00
NH Flat 10 1 10% +7.00
Chase 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 27 1 3.7% −15.00
Good to Soft 22 2 9.1% +2.50
Soft 14 3 21.4% +7.35
Standard (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle 9 0 0% −9.00
Hexham 9 1 11.1% +12.00
Newcastle (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Wetherby 7 0 0% −7.00
Carlisle 7 2 28.6% −1.25
Redcar 6 0 0% −6.00
Uttoxeter 5 1 20% +12.00
Market Rasen 4 0 0% −4.00
Sedgefield 4 0 0% −4.00
Doncaster 4 1 25% −1.90
Kelso 3 0 0% −3.00
Huntingdon 2 0 0% −2.00
Musselburgh 1 0 0% −1.00
Southwell (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00
Leicester 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 30 0 0% −30.00
Class 5 25 3 12% +25.00
Class 6 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 3 7 3 42.9% +0.85
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 3 50% 1.37 +1.85
2nd–3rd fav 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
4th–6th fav 27 0 0% 0.00 −27.00
7th+ in betting 42 3 7.1% 2.85 +8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82% completed · 50 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 4 25% 0 2 1 0 0
Hurdle 46 87% 0 1 4 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
To Chase A Dream (GB) 10 3 8 8 Mar 25
Songbird's Tale (GB) 10 1 2 6 May 23
Cap Ricochet (GB)then John Dawson 6 0 1 14 Apr 25
Joto (GB)then John Dawson 6 0 1 9 Mar 25
Bold Jury (IRE) 5 0 0 26 Mar 25
Shuil Donn (IRE)from Dr Richard Newland 5 1 1 23 Sep 24
Contest (GB) 4 0 0 9 Aug 25
Indian Outlaw (IRE)from Andrew McNamara 4 0 0 31 Oct 23
Island Of Skye (GB)from Mark Walford 3 0 0 16 Sep 25
Lady Hobbs (GB) 3 0 0 23 May 23
The Last Knight (IRE)from Paul Stafford 3 0 0 27 Jan 22
Whin Cover (GB)then John Dawson 2 0 0 8 Jul 25
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 23 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard, most often for John Dawson (4); 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00180003301125011
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Brian Hughes 15 3 20% +2.75
Mr John Dawson 12 1 8.3% −9.90
Jonny Peate 7 0 0% −7.00
Danny McMenamin 6 0 0% −6.00
Alan Doyle 4 0 0% −4.00
Mark Galligan 4 1 25% +17.00
Ross Chapman 3 0 0% −3.00
Callum Bewley 2 1 50% +15.00
Zak Wheatley 2 0 0% −2.00
Joe Williamson 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr Paddy Barlow 2 0 0% −2.00
Oisin Orr 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→
18
Archived wins
£139k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 5 wins
To Chase A Dream (GB) — Racing TV Free Trial Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Dec 2024 · Class 3
£7,922
To Chase A Dream (GB) — Trade Copiers 22 Year Anniversary Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Oct 2024 · Class 3
£7,922
Dica (FR) — Watch Racing Uk In Stunning Hd Handicap Chase Catterick · Mar 2018 · Class 4
£6,758
Notable horses
Dica (FR) Roys Dream (GB) To Chase A Dream (GB) Solid Strike (GB) Songbird's Tale (GB) Dream Revival (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Cannock Chase (USA) 30% · 3–10
Progeny have won 7.5% of 307 runs since 2008 (33 horses).
Sulamani (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Dragon Dancer (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 8.8% of 566 runs since 2008 (80 horses).
Capri (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.8% of 120 runs since 2008 (33 horses).
Arctic Cosmos (USA) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,300 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
Jukebox Jury (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 13.5% of 2,217 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 202 · newest first

The latest 50 of 202 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 April 2013 to 16 September 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Sep 25 Redcar Stretch (GB)J: Jonny Peate Try RacingTV Free Now At racingtv.com/freetrial HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Good · 5 ran 4th 66/1
16 Sep 25 Redcar Island Of Skye (GB)J: Jonny Peate Marske Fabrication And Engineering Straight Mile HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 10th 50/1
08 Sep 25 Newcastle (AW) Island Of Skye (GB)J: Jonny Peate Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 6th 16/1
09 Aug 25 Redcar Contest (GB)J: Jonny Peate Celebrate The Life Of Ann Allport HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 8/1
20 Jul 25 Redcar Contest (GB)J: Alex Jary Sky Bet Extra Places Daily Apprentice Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 200/1
08 Jul 25 Uttoxeter Whin Cover (GB)J: Brian Hughes Eaton Hall Shooting Ground Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 5th 25/1
27 Jun 25 Newcastle (AW) Contest (GB)J: Jonny Peate JenningsBet In Shiremoor Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 250/1
26 Jun 25 Leicester Island Of Skye (GB)J: Jonny Peate Sophie Ellis-Bextor Plays Ladies' Day 'Confined' HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 3rd 13/2
06 Jun 25 Thirsk Contest (GB)J: Jonny Peate Thomas Lord Restaurant A View To Dine For Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 6th 66/1
25 May 25 Uttoxeter Whin Cover (GB)J: Danny McMenamin QuinnBet Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 7th 33/1
03 May 25 Hexham Foxey (GB)J: Mr John Dawson Lindsay Jackson 50th Birthday Celebration Selling HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 50/1
14 Apr 25 Hexham Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Danny McMenamin EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 16/1
14 Apr 25 Hexham Foxey (GB)J: Joe Williamson Horslyx - For Horse's Health & Welfare Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 50/1
28 Mar 25 Wetherby Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Wearahatday Supporting Brain Tumour Awareness Month Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 6th 50/1
26 Mar 25 Market Rasen Bold Jury (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Experience Irish Racing With ITM Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Good · 6 ran UR 13/2
20 Mar 25 Sedgefield Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Danny McMenamin betvickers.com Now Live! Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran UR 12/1
16 Mar 25 Market Rasen Bold Jury (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Bet At racingtv.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Good · 6 ran UR 11/1
09 Mar 25 Carlisle Joto (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Blackwell Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 13/2
09 Mar 25 Carlisle Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Brian Hughes Racing TV EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 5th 22/1
08 Mar 25 Sandown To Chase A Dream (GB)J: Brian Hughes Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 6th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Collins's strike rate?
Paul Collins has won 6 of 78 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Collins's Fair A/E?
1.07, from 78 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).