What is P Nolan's strike rate?

P Nolan has won 14 of 162 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does P Nolan do best at?

Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 32 rides (9.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does P Nolan ride most for?

Andrew Haynes, with 94 rides since 2008 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (12.8%).

What is P Nolan's Fair A/E?

1.09, from 162 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

P Nolan

162 rides in the lifetime window · 94 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jan 2012 99% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

14–162

Wins / Runs

8.6%

Strike rate

n=162

38 (24%)

Placed

1.09

Fair A/E

n=162 · 0.93 incl. margin

−50.37

£1 level stake

n=162 at SP · −31.1%

£56,317

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09). Rode mostly for Andrew Haynes — 58% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 162 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Andrew Haynes: 12.8% from 94 Claiming: 8.8%

The read

First rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 5.4% (n=92, Fair A/E 0.75). Andrew Haynes supplied 58% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.8% vs 8.6%, A/E 1.66) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 15-30-day break (11.6%, n=43). The record read poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 5.3% over 38 rides, 3.3pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.4%−3.2

n=92 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −62.37

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

27.3%+18.7

n=11 · A/E 2.34 · £1 +15.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.4%−5.2

n=29 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −26.12

When favourite

20%

n=5 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −2.12

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.8%+0.2

n=136 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −32.25

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.8%−3.8

n=21 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −15.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 14% vs 8.6% · n=43

With Andrew Haynes 12.8% vs 8.6% · n=94

On first rides for the horse 5.4% vs 8.6% · n=92

Over 1m – 1m1f 5.3% vs 8.6% · n=38

Off a 15-30-day break 11.6% vs 8.6% · n=43

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 161 14 8.7% −49.37

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 87 7 8% −40.62

Good to Firm 29 0 0% −29.00

Good 19 2 10.5% −2.00

Good to Soft 14 1 7.1% +1.00

Firm 10 4 40% +23.25

Soft 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 32 3 9.4% −8.00

Kempton (AW) 22 1 4.5% −16.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 19 1 5.3% −16.12

Bath 16 5 31.3% +27.25

Brighton 10 0 0% −10.00

Southwell (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00

Folkestone 6 0 0% −6.00

Salisbury 6 1 16.7% −1.00

Chelmsford (AW) 5 2 40% +9.00

Yarmouth 4 0 0% −4.00

Leicester 4 0 0% −4.00

Chepstow 4 0 0% −4.00

Redcar 4 0 0% −4.00

Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00

Thirsk 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 84 7 8.3% −26.62

Class 5 58 5 8.6% −17.25

Class 4 13 1 7.7% −5.00

Class 7 5 1 20% +0.50

Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 7 2 28.6% 1.18 −0.87

2nd–3rd fav 35 7 20% 1.29 +7.50

4th–6th fav 44 4 9.1% 1.28 +4.00

7th+ in betting 76 1 1.3% 0.39 −61.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Desperate Dan (GB) 13 4 9 16 Jul 09

Kings Topic (USA) 9 3 6 24 Mar 09

Seneschal (GB) 8 1 2 2 Jul 09

Ever Cheerful (GB) 6 1 4 25 Mar 09

Piccostar (GB) 6 1 1 10 Dec 08

Midnite Blews (IRE) 5 1 2 1 Aug 08

Special Chapter (IRE) 4 0 0 25 May 09

Lancaster Lad (IRE) 4 0 0 4 May 09

Chalentina (GB) 4 0 1 16 Mar 09

Ghost (IRE) 3 0 0 9 May 11

Station Place (GB) 3 1 2 11 May 09

Swindon Town Flyer (IRE) 3 0 0 11 Dec 08

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 94 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

02150911142314000

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardAndrew Haynes

58% of all rides
12.8% SR · A/E 1.66

TrainerRWSR£1

Andrew Haynes 94 12 12.8% +11.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

Archived wins

£59,598

Prize money

2008

Best season · 8 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Desperate Dan (GB) — 10 Free Play At Totesportbingo.com Handicap Bath · May 2009 · Class 4

£4,857

Desperate Dan (GB) — Lindley Catering Handicap Bath · Jul 2009 · Class 5

£4,209

Seneschal (GB) — Axminster Carpets Apprentice Handicap Salisbury · May 2009 · Class 5

£3,238

Notable horses

Desperate Dan (GB) Kings Topic (USA) Seneschal (GB) Ever Cheerful (GB) Piccostar (GB) Midnite Blews (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Danzero (AUS) 30.8% · 4–13

Progeny have won 13.8% of 275 runs since 2008 (18 horses).

Piccolo (GB) 8.3% · 1–12

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Kingmambo (USA) 33.3% · 3–9

Progeny have won 14.5% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (137 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 10.9% from 138. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 18.1% from 243.

Polar Falcon (USA) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 8% of 261 runs since 2008 (27 horses).

Atraf (GB) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,220 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 317. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 3.9% from 204. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.4% from 135. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.1% from 293.

Primo Valentino (IRE) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,160 runs since 2008 (78 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.2% from 181. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 3.3% from 183.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 181 · newest first

The latest 50 of 181 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 October 2006 to 12 January 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

12 Jan 12 Southwell (AW) Bellapais Abbey (IRE)T: David Brown 18th January Come Jumping At Southwell Maiden StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 33/1

23 May 11 Thirsk Mystake (IRE)T: David Nicholls Book Tickets At thirskracecourse.net Selling StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 8th 25/1

23 May 11 Thirsk Jordans Express (GB)T: Noel Wilson Book Now For Ladies Day Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 14th 100/1

14 May 11 Thirsk Cara's Request (AUS)T: David Nicholls Marion Gibson Brown Memorial Handicap (Div 1)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 4th 16/1

09 May 11 Redcar Ghost (IRE)T: David Nicholls Redcar Racecourse Wedding And Conference Venue HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 16/1

09 May 11 Redcar Dorden (GB)T: Noel Wilson Voltigeur 2 Course Special Menu 10.95 Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 100/1

01 May 11 Hamilton Fol Hollow (IRE)T: David Nicholls Cancer Research Claiming StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 4th 4/1

27 Apr 11 Newcastle Ghost (IRE)T: David Nicholls Sendrig Construction HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 33/1

18 Apr 11 Redcar Ghost (IRE)T: David Nicholls Come Racing Again On Easter Monday HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Firm · 11 ran 9th 18/1

06 Apr 11 Beverley Hamoody (USA)T: David Nicholls Spring Into Racing At Beverley HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 10th 22/1

03 Apr 11 Doncaster Academy Blues (USA)T: David Nicholls William Hill Home Of Betting Handicap (Div 1)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 15 ran 10th 18/1

11 Jan 11 Southwell (AW) First Swallow (GB)T: David Brown Today's Jockey Specials At Bluesq.com Selling StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 4 ran 3rd 10/1

29 Dec 10 Wolverhampton (AW) Derby Desire (IRE)T: D Donovan 40 Live Football Markets At Totesport.com HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 7th 10/1

27 Dec 10 Southwell (AW) Mangham (IRE)T: David Brown Dorothy Dixon Birthday Celebration HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 6th 20/1

07 Dec 10 Southwell (AW) Lenny Bee (GB)T: David Brown SP+ For Bigger Wins At totesport.com HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 5/1

03 Dec 10 Wolverhampton (AW) Rattleyurjewellery (GB)T: David Brown Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Slow · 6 ran 6th 40/1

16 Jul 09 Bath Desperate Dan (GB)T: Andrew Haynes Lindley Catering HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 10/1

14 Jul 09 Beverley Benozzo Gozzoli (GB)T: Hughie Morrison Turftv Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 33/1

13 Jul 09 Windsor Bertie Southstreet (GB)T: Jim Boyle Sportingbet.com Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 7/1

11 Jul 09 Nottingham Cry Alot Boy (GB)T: Kevin Morgan Betfair Apprentice Training Series HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 6th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is P Nolan's strike rate?: P Nolan has won 14 of 162 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P Nolan do best at?: Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 32 rides (9.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does P Nolan ride most for?: Andrew Haynes, with 94 rides since 2008 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (12.8%).
What is P Nolan's Fair A/E?: 1.09, from 162 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.