Phil Dennis
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 200 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.88).
The record is strongest at Hamilton (16.1%, n=56), clear of the rider's 7.8% baseline. It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (2.9% over 139 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.3% (n=91, Fair A/E 0.57). Katie Scott supplies 16% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9%, A/E 0.90). The rider also reads well on Good to Soft going (13.5%, n=111) and off a 0-7-day break (12.6%, n=111). The standout partner of the record: Ornate (GB) — 8 wins from 44 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2013→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 3,679 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 3,679 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 July 2013 to 16 July 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Phil Dennis's strike rate?
- Phil Dennis has won 76 of 980 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Phil Dennis do best at?
- Hamilton by strike rate: 9 wins from 56 rides (16.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Phil Dennis ride most for?
- Katie Scott, with 156 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (9%).
- What is Phil Dennis's Fair A/E?
- 0.88, from 971 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.