What is Sam Thomas's strike rate?

Sam Thomas has won 87 of 435 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 20% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Sam Thomas do best at?

Chepstow by strike rate: 16 wins from 70 runners (22.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Sam Thomas?

Dylan Johnston, with 149 runners since 2022 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (21.5%).

Is Sam Thomas in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Sam Thomas's Fair A/E?

1.11, from 435 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Sam Thomas

435 runners in the last 5 seasons · 68 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 11 days ago 97% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2022

87–435

Wins / Runs

20%

Strike rate

n=435

193 (44%)

Placed

1.11

Fair A/E

n=435 · 0.95 incl. margin

−61.11

£1 level stake

n=435 at SP · −14.0%

£2.22m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

14.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 20% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.11). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 25% off breaks of two months or more (142 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 435 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Fresh horses: 24.6% 47.3% when favourite Dylan Johnston: 21.5% from 149 Sends off the favourite in 25% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cheltenham (2.9% over 35 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 24.6% (n=142, Fair A/E 1.38), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 9.1% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.64). Dylan Johnston rides 34% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (21.5%, A/E 1.21) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (29.3%, n=82). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 9.7% over 93 runners, 10.3pts below the baseline. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow (Dec 2021, £85,827). The stable star of the record: Iwilldoit (GB) — 6 wins from 26 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 20% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

24.6%+4.6

n=142 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +36.23

New recruits · first run for the yard

33.3%+13.3

n=9 · A/E 2.05 · £1 +0.50

Debutants · first career start

11.8%−8.2

n=34 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −22.60

First-time headgear · true-first definition

19.4%−0.6

n=31 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −2.48

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10%−10.0

n=10 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −6.00

When favourite

47.3%

n=110 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +15.76

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

18.6%−1.4

n=129 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +2.36

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.1%−10.9

n=44 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −32.52

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 20% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Cheltenham 2.9% vs 20% · n=35

In Class 1 9.7% vs 20% · n=93

In Group / Graded races 9.1% vs 20% · n=44

Off a break of 180+ days 29.3% vs 20% · n=82

With horses switching code 29.3% vs 20% · n=58

With debutants 11.8% vs 20% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 209 42 20.1% −46.79

Chase 163 36 22.1% +25.87

NH Flat 48 8 16.7% −27.94

Flat 15 1 6.7% −12.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Soft 162 27 16.7% −59.08

Soft 124 28 22.6% +8.46

Good 95 24 25.3% +14.75

Heavy 42 7 16.7% −15.99

Standard (AW) 9 1 11.1% −6.25

Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 70 16 22.9% +7.18

Cheltenham 35 1 2.9% −31.80

Ffos Las 29 4 13.8% −18.00

Hereford 26 6 23.1% −1.83

Aintree 23 2 8.7% −12.67

Ascot 23 9 39.1% +16.91

Kempton 22 4 18.2% −3.50

Newbury 18 4 22.2% −1.97

Wincanton 18 7 38.9% +20.10

Exeter 17 5 29.4% +4.18

Sandown 13 2 15.4% +1.00

Doncaster 12 1 8.3% −9.62

Fontwell 11 1 9.1% −4.50

Warwick 10 2 20% +4.91

Haydock 10 3 30% +4.83

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 120 27 22.5% −12.80

Class 1 93 9 9.7% −23.02

Class 3 90 19 21.1% +3.15

Class 2 68 18 26.5% −3.60

Class 5 53 13 24.5% −16.59

Class 6 11 1 9.1% −8.25

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 120 53 44.2% 1.29 +9.51

2nd–3rd fav 135 25 18.5% 1.02 −5.12

4th–6th fav 121 7 5.8% 0.68 −45.50

7th+ in betting 59 2 3.4% 0.92 −20.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.8% completed · 372 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 163 84% 8 2 16 0 0

Hurdle 209 89% 3 1 18 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Katate Dori (FR) 20 4 11 18 Apr 26

Just Over Land (FR) 20 3 7 18 Apr 26

Range (IRE) 18 3 6 14 Feb 26

Our Power (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 17 3 9 25 Apr 26

Steel Ally (FR) 17 5 11 10 Mar 26

Vincenzo (FR) 17 4 11 28 Feb 26

Jubilee Express (FR) 15 3 9 20 Feb 26

Lump Sum (FR) 15 6 10 27 Dec 25

Ballybeen (IRE)from Colin S McKeever · then Matt Sheppard 14 0 8 6 Nov 24

Palacio (FR) 13 3 4 18 Apr 26

Stolen Silver (FR)then Laura Horsfall 12 2 3 15 Jan 25

Alfie's Princess (IRE) 11 3 8 16 Mar 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 68 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nicky Henderson (6) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (5); 45 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard; 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1622191420170··312716

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDylan Johnston

34% of all rides
21.5% SR · A/E 1.21

RiderRWSR£1

Dylan Johnston 149 32 21.5% −14.46

Sam Twiston-Davies 135 27 20% −42.32

Charlie Deutsch 45 11 24.4% −5.72

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

144

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.83m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 24 wins

Iwilldoit (GB) — Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Chepstow · Dec 2021 · Grade 3

£85,827

Our Power (IRE) — Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Kempton · Feb 2023 · Class 1

£85,425

Katate Dori (FR) — Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Kempton · Feb 2025 · Class 1

£85,425

Notable horses

Iwilldoit (GB) Lump Sum (FR) Not A Role Model (IRE) Powerstown Park (IRE) Galileo Silver (IRE) Steel Ally (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

No Risk At All (FR) 17.2% · 10–58

Progeny have won 14.4% of 3,107 runs since 2008 (430 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.4% from 941.

Doctor Dino (FR) 31.6% · 18–57

Progeny have won 15.9% of 3,176 runs since 2008 (488 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19.7% from 553. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.5% from 211. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.7% from 689. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.8% from 137.

Bathyrhon (GER) 14.3% · 4–28

Progeny have won 12.3% of 1,165 runs since 2008 (185 horses).

Shantou (USA) 11.5% · 3–26

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,819 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Authorized (IRE) 30% · 6–20

Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,021 runs since 2008 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,043. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.8% from 126. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.

Power (GB) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 9.4% of 2,720 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.3% from 353. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.3% from 160.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 872 · newest first

The latest 50 of 872 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 November 2015 to 9 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Doctor Blue (FR)J: Dylan Johnston DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle Race (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran PU 17/2

18 Jul 26 Market Rasen Special John (IRE)J: Matt Griffiths Betway Boosts Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 9/4F

23 Jun 26 Ffos Las Paps Of Jura (GB)J: Robert Dunne Morgan Enviromental Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 6th 33/1

10 Jun 26 Fontwell Special John (IRE)J: Matt Griffiths Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 26f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 11/8F

29 May 26 Chepstow Paps Of Jura (GB)J: Jack Dace LSL Racing Horse Sales Syndication Leasing Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 10/1

16 May 26 Bangor-on-Dee Special John (IRE)J: Matt Griffiths Classic Additions Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 1st 3/1F

27 Apr 26 Bath Paps Of Jura (GB)J: Tyler Heard Silvershine Turf Services HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Firm · 7 ran 4th 20/1

25 Apr 26 Sandown Our Power (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 28.5f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 14/1

24 Apr 26 Chepstow Angel Wave (GB)J: Mr Harvey Barfoot-Saunt Braceys My Coranna Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 4th 50/1

18 Apr 26 Ayr Katate Dori (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 32f · Heavy · 16 ran PU 22/1

18 Apr 26 Ayr Just Over Land (FR)J: Dylan Johnston CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Heavy · 11 ran 6th 20/1

18 Apr 26 Ayr Palacio (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 7/1

12 Apr 26 Ffos Las Cote D'ange (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Barry Murphy Racing Syndicate Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 13/2

12 Apr 26 Ffos Las Angel Wave (GB)J: Dylan Johnston Paned At 3A's Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran F 50/1

12 Apr 26 Ffos Las Knead A Win (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Amroth Bay Static Caravan Sales Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 10/11F

12 Apr 26 Wincanton Special John (IRE)J: Matt Griffiths Visit Bridles Care Home Wincanton Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 3 ran 2nd 4/7F

25 Mar 26 Lingfield (AW) Paps Of Jura (GB)J: Conor Whiteley Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 14/1

22 Mar 26 Carlisle Just For Dad (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Next Meeting Easter Saturday 4th April Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 3rd 6/4

22 Mar 26 Carlisle Rocking Man (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Pauline Phizacklea Memorial Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 1st 1/3F

21 Mar 26 Newbury Palacio (FR)J: Dylan Johnston John Haine Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 1st 16/5

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Sam Thomas's strike rate?: Sam Thomas has won 87 of 435 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 20% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Sam Thomas do best at?: Chepstow by strike rate: 16 wins from 70 runners (22.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Sam Thomas?: Dylan Johnston, with 149 runners since 2022 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (21.5%).
Is Sam Thomas in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Sam Thomas's Fair A/E?: 1.11, from 435 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.