What is Tom Madden's strike rate?

Tom Madden has won 113 of 2,051 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom Madden do best at?

Sligo by strike rate: 5 wins from 36 rides (13.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tom Madden ride most for?

Mrs John Harrington, with 493 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 31 (6.3%).

What is Tom Madden's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 2,050 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tom Madden

2,051 rides in the lifetime window · 1,075 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Nov 2022 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

113–2,051

Wins / Runs

5.5%

Strike rate

n=2,051

366 (18%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=2,050 · 0.74 incl. margin

−851.96

£1 level stake

n=2,051 at SP · −41.5%

£1.67m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

1.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 110 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (152 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,051 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov 29% when favourite Mrs John Harrington: 6.3% from 493 LTO winners: 11.8% Claiming: 5.9% Rides the favourite in 3% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sligo (13.9%, n=36), clear of the rider's 5.5% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 11.8% (n=152, Fair A/E 1.05). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −655.21 to a £1 stake over 1,075 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mrs John Harrington supplies 24% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.3%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (11.1%, n=162). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Guinness Handicap at Listowel (Sep 2014, £30,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.8%−1.7

n=1,075 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −655.21

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

11.8%+6.3

n=152 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −29.74

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.4%−2.1

n=351 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −126.00

When favourite

29%

n=62 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +7.26

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

5.9%+0.4

n=1,292 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −560.67

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.9%−1.6

n=1,124 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −611.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.9%−0.6

n=61 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −39.62

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With John C McConnell 18.2% vs 5.5% · n=33

With Adrian McGuinness 15.4% vs 5.5% · n=52

On last-time-out winners 11.8% vs 5.5% · n=152

At Sligo 13.9% vs 5.5% · n=36

Off a 0-7-day break 11.1% vs 5.5% · n=162

With C&D winners 9.7% vs 5.5% · n=248

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 620 39 6.3% −232.95

Good 471 26 5.5% −149.30

Soft 452 18 4% −269.25

Good to Firm 214 14 6.5% −72.59

Heavy 164 13 7.9% −19.87

Good to Soft 130 3 2.3% −108.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 617 39 6.3% −229.95

Curragh 195 4 2.1% −158.50

Leopardstown 159 7 4.4% −87.50

Naas 131 9 6.9% −22.79

Gowran Park 131 5 3.8% −83.50

Navan 130 5 3.8% −76.00

Cork 118 9 7.6% +26.50

Limerick 92 6 6.5% −57.97

Fairyhouse 68 4 5.9% −22.00

Galway 54 0 0% −54.00

Tipperary 53 3 5.7% −29.50

Killarney 51 3 5.9% −23.50

Roscommon 49 2 4.1% −21.00

Sligo 36 5 13.9% +67.75

Bellewstown 33 2 6.1% −14.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 61 3 4.9% −39.62

Class 5 3 1 33.3% −0.75

Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 80 20 25% 1.18 −2.66

2nd–3rd fav 217 23 10.6% 0.78 −89.30

4th–6th fav 481 45 9.4% 1.24 −47.00

7th+ in betting 1,273 25 2% 0.64 −713.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Shake The Bucket (IRE) 47 4 11 3 Dec 19

Bobby Jean (IRE) 18 2 5 19 May 21

William Ashford (IRE) 18 3 4 23 Oct 18

Pulsating (IRE) 17 3 5 10 Jun 22

Amazing One (GB) 14 0 0 23 Jul 21

Everyhouronthehour (IRE) 13 3 7 16 Feb 22

Pass The Ball (IRE) 13 1 4 18 Nov 20

Hurricane Sky (IRE) 13 1 2 8 Nov 19

Avalanche (GB) 13 1 3 28 Oct 19

Whatever It Takes (IRE) 12 0 1 8 Sep 18

Hee Haw (IRE) 11 1 2 26 Jul 19

Voyageofdiscovery (USA) 10 2 4 19 Feb 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,075 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

564755545782

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMrs John Harrington

24% of all rides
6.3% SR · A/E 1.02

TrainerRWSR£1

Mrs John Harrington 493 31 6.3% −152.59

Niall Madden 146 9 6.2% −19.50

T J O'Mara 83 6 7.2% −10.50

Charles O'Brien 58 3 5.2% −31.25

Ross O'Sullivan 56 2 3.6% +34.00

Adrian McGuinness 52 8 15.4% +4.55

J C Hayden 38 3 7.9% +5.50

Miss Tara Lee Cogan 37 2 5.4% −22.50

Conor O'Dwyer 36 4 11.1% −4.00

W McCreery 36 4 11.1% −7.00

John C McConnell 33 6 18.2% +34.33

Noel Meade 30 0 0% −30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

113

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.67m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 25 wins

Shalamzar (FR) — Guinness Handicap Listowel · Sep 2014

£30,000

Aussie Valentine (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund 'Habitat' Handicap Curragh · May 2019

£29,500

Tilly's Chilli (IRE) — Royal County Handicap Navan · Jun 2017

£29,500

Notable horses

Shake The Bucket (IRE) Sheila's Hope (IRE) William Ashford (IRE) Pulsating (IRE) Everyhouronthehour (IRE) Georgian Bay (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 6.9% · 4–58

Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,890 runs since 2010 (950 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.

Dragon Pulse (IRE) 14.3% · 7–49

Progeny have won 8.9% of 4,272 runs since 2016 (320 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.3% from 572. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 363.

Ashkalani (IRE) 8.5% · 4–47

Progeny have won 7.3% of 519 runs since 2008 (56 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.4% from 129. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.7% from 111.

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 12.2% · 5–41

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,648 runs since 2013 (843 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.9% from 330.

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 2.5% · 1–40

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,819 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 321.

Dandy Man (IRE) 11.4% · 4–35

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,991 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,051 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,051 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 October 2013 to 6 November 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 22 Naas Willesee (GB)T: Mrs John Harrington Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (Premier Handicap)16f · Heavy · 20 ran 10th 125/1

31 Oct 22 Galway Millyupdahilly (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Galway Races Summer Festival 2023 Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)12f · Heavy · 18 ran 13th 40/1

23 Oct 22 Curragh Bang Po (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Tote Guarantee On All Irish And UK Races Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden6f · Heavy · 15 ran 4th 40/1

22 Oct 22 Leopardstown Portreath (IRE)T: Mrs John Harrington Irish Stallion Farms Ebf (c & G) Maiden7f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 20/1

21 Oct 22 Dundalk (AW) Sablonne (GB)T: Mrs John Harrington Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Pat Smullen Mercury Stakes (Group 3)5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 150/1

18 Oct 22 Gowran Park Well Suited (IRE)T: T J O'Mara Racing Club Membership Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 5th 22/1

18 Oct 22 Gowran Park Ya Ya Baby (IRE)T: Peter McCreery Racing Club Membership Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 13th 25/1

15 Oct 22 Leopardstown Laelaps (IRE)T: Mrs John Harrington Leopardstown October Handicap (Premier Handicap)12f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 8th 22/1

15 Oct 22 Leopardstown Scarlett O'hara (FR)T: Mrs John Harrington Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 6th 28/1

13 Oct 22 Curragh Inveterate (IRE)T: Miss Tara Lee Cogan Hollywoodbets Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (47-65)7f · Yielding To Soft · 20 ran 19th 33/1

13 Oct 22 Curragh Snowhaven (IRE)T: Mrs John Harrington Bill Hanlon Memorial Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden7f · Yielding To Soft · 20 ran 15th 25/1

08 Oct 22 Curragh Thats Jet (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Mongey Communications Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden9f · Yielding To Soft · 15 ran 11th 250/1

07 Oct 22 Dundalk (AW) Bang Po (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 100/1

05 Oct 22 Navan Summer Snow (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Slane Nursery Handicap (47-75)5.5f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 11/2

05 Oct 22 Navan Snowcapped (IRE)T: Mrs John Harrington Arkle Bar Median Auction Maiden5.5f · Soft · 17 ran 11th 33/1

02 Oct 22 Tipperary Nectaris (GB)T: Mrs John Harrington Coolmore U S Navy Flag Concorde Stakes (Group 3)7.5f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 22/1

01 Oct 22 Killarney Torential (IRE)T: Miss Tara Lee Cogan John J Galvin & Son Median Auction Maiden8f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 150/1

29 Sep 22 Bellewstown Millyupdahilly (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap (47-65)7.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 12th 18/1

27 Sep 22 Cork Monzoon (GB)T: Ross O'Sullivan Follow Us On Social Media Handicap8f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 9th 14/1

25 Sep 22 Curragh Thats Jet (IRE)T: Ross O'Sullivan Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden8f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 9th 300/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tom Madden's strike rate?: Tom Madden has won 113 of 2,051 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Madden do best at?: Sligo by strike rate: 5 wins from 36 rides (13.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tom Madden ride most for?: Mrs John Harrington, with 493 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 31 (6.3%).
What is Tom Madden's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 2,050 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.