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Trainer profile

Miss Tara Lee Cogan

80 runners in the last 5 seasons · 25 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 53 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
1–80
Wins / Runs
1.3%
Strike rate
n=80
7 (9%)
Placed
0.26
Fair A/E
n=80 · 0.21 incl. margin
−77.75
£1 level stake
n=80 at SP · −97.2%
£28,964
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4%+2.7
n=25 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −22.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.3
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.52 · £1 +0.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−1.3
n=41 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −41.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 36 1 2.8% −33.75
Hurdle 34 0 0% −34.00
Chase 9 0 0% −9.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 41 0 0% −41.00
Heavy 13 0 0% −13.00
Good 12 0 0% −12.00
Good to Soft 8 0 0% −8.00
Standard (AW) 6 1 16.7% −3.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 12 0 0% −12.00
Leopardstown 9 0 0% −9.00
Fairyhouse 9 0 0% −9.00
Clonmel 7 0 0% −7.00
Gowran Park 5 0 0% −5.00
Curragh 5 0 0% −5.00
Dundalk (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Listowel 3 0 0% −3.00
Galway 3 0 0% −3.00
Naas 2 0 0% −2.00
Limerick 2 0 0% −2.00
Down Royal 2 0 0% −2.00
Bellewstown 2 0 0% −2.00
Warwick 2 0 0% −2.00
Southwell (AW) 2 1 50% +0.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 6 2 1 50% +0.25
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 1 33.3% 1.27 −0.75
2nd–3rd fav 6 0 0% 0.00 −6.00
4th–6th fav 14 0 0% 0.00 −14.00
7th+ in betting 57 0 0% 0.00 −57.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Kalaroun (IRE)from M Halford · then Conor O'Dwyer 14 0 1 13 Jul 23
Golden Goose (IRE) 8 1 1 15 Jun 25
Lucky Out (IRE)from Thomas Mullins 7 0 0 22 Sep 25
Inveterate (IRE)from John James Feane 6 0 0 17 Jan 23
Hitak (FR)from Miss Ellmarie Holden · then John Joseph Hanlon 4 0 1 27 Feb 25
Battle Frontier (IRE)from Mark John Scallan 4 0 1 12 May 22
Getaway King (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon · then John Joseph Hanlon 3 0 0 1 Mar 25
Person Of Interest (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon · then John Joseph Hanlon 3 0 1 13 Feb 25
Catch Yourself On (USA)from John Joseph Hanlon · then Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies 3 0 0 3 Feb 25
Seasett (GB)from John Joseph Hanlon · then John Joseph Hanlon 3 0 0 25 Jan 25
Roxboro River (IRE)then John Joseph Hanlon 3 0 0 15 Jan 25
Another Nightmare (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon 3 0 0 13 Jan 25
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Joseph Hanlon (11); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for John Joseph Hanlon (13); 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00140000000·0
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Paddy Hanlon 25 0 0% −25.00
Seamie Heffernan 11 0 0% −11.00
Tom Madden 9 0 0% −9.00
Paddy Harnett 4 0 0% −4.00
Jody McGarvey 3 0 0% −3.00
Ryan Treacy 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr B O'Neill 2 0 0% −2.00
Harry Sexton 2 0 0% −2.00
Jack Cleary 2 0 0% −2.00
Jordan Gainford 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr T Walsh 2 0 0% −2.00
Shane Kelly 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
7
Archived wins
£86,765
Prize money
2015
Best season · 2 wins
Bobby Jean (IRE) — Hyundai Santa Fe Handicap Sligo · May 2018
£9,240
Bobby Jean (IRE) — Pg Duffy & Sons Citroen Handicap Curragh · May 2015
£7,590
Schindler's Pearl (IRE) — Inistioge Maiden Hurdle Gowran Park · Jun 2009
£7,256
Notable horses
Bobby Jean (IRE) Schindler's Pearl (IRE) Oiche Maith (IRE) Golden Goose (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,201 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,195.
Showcasing (GB) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,637 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.
Unfortunately (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9.4% of 662 runs since 2022 (46 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.6% from 236.
Dragon Pulse (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.9% of 4,271 runs since 2016 (320 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.3% from 572. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 363.
Lauro (GER) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.5% of 548 runs since 2014 (87 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.1% from 149. Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 196. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.6% from 171. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 221.
Sans Frontieres (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,254 runs since 2018 (155 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.1% from 184.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 193 · newest first

The latest 50 of 193 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2008 to 11 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Armillary (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Burke's Clonbur 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 13th 66/1
01 Jun 26 Listowel Heartbreak Weather (IRE)J: Mr T Walsh Beasley Engineering Hunters Chase23.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 16/1
01 May 26 Punchestown Heartbreak Weather (IRE)J: Mr T Walsh Stanley Asphalt Hunters Chase For The Bishopscourt Cup20f · Yielding · 13 ran F 6/1
28 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Turners Cross (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Join Us On Instagram At dundalk_stadium Handicap6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 28/1
22 Sep 25 Listowel Lucky Out (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Visit Millennium Machinery Open House Exhibition 9th - 11th October Handicap8f · Heavy · 15 ran 8th 33/1
09 Sep 25 Galway Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Galway Handicap7f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 11/1
02 Aug 25 Galway Lucky Out (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Ardilaun Hotel Handicap7f · Yielding · 15 ran 6th 40/1
27 Jun 25 Curragh Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan James Nolan's Bar Kildare Town Handicap8f · Good · 20 ran 16th 100/1
19 Jun 25 Leopardstown Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Bulmers Live At Leopardstown Handicap7f · Good · 16 ran 15th 40/1
15 Jun 25 Gowran Park Golden Goose (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60)8f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 66/1
30 May 25 Carlisle Golden Goose (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Andersons - Serving The Community Since 1888 Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 6th 9/4F
29 Mar 25 Curragh Lucky Out (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Tote.ie Handicap12f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 33/1
01 Mar 25 Southwell (AW) Golden Goose (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 5/4F
01 Mar 25 Navan Getaway King (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Flyingbolt Novice Chase (Grade 3)16f · Heavy · 4 ran 4th 200/1
28 Feb 25 Southwell (AW) Lucky Out (IRE)J: Cieren Fallon Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 12/1
27 Feb 25 Clonmel Hitak (FR)J: Paddy Hanlon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle19f · Heavy · 17 ran 5th 10/3
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Topgun Simmy (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Book Your Group Deal Today Handicap Hurdle25f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 11/1
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Sir Carnegie (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle20f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 250/1
24 Feb 25 Punchestown Quantum Leap (GB)J: Paddy Hanlon 50,000 Euros BetVictor Graduation Bonus Series Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 80/1
22 Feb 25 Fairyhouse Real Empire (GB)J: Ryan Treacy Tote, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft · 23 ran 12th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Miss Tara Lee Cogan's strike rate?
Miss Tara Lee Cogan has won 1 of 80 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.3% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Miss Tara Lee Cogan's Fair A/E?
0.26, from 80 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).