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Jockey profile

Tony Dobbin

101 rides in the lifetime window · 83 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Sep 2010 99% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
11–101
Wins / Runs
10.9%
Strike rate
n=101
31 (31%)
Placed
0.89
Fair A/E
n=101 · 0.76 incl. margin
−52.34
£1 level stake
n=101 at SP · −51.8%
£123k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.89).

Deterministic profile computed from 101 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance First rides: 11.1%
The read

The rider also read well over 2m5f – 3m (18.8%, n=32) and in Chase races (15.2%, n=33). The record read poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 3% over 33 rides, 7.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.82 across 57 rides (8.8% strike, −37.56 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Melling Chase at Aintree (Apr 2007, £114,040). The standout partner of the record was Monet's Garden (IRE) — 8 wins from 16 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
11.1%+0.2
n=45 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −13.84
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
15.4%+4.5
n=13 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −7.47
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10%−0.9
n=20 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
35.7%
n=14 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −3.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
10.5%−0.4
n=38 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −20.29
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 3% vs 10.9% · n=33
Over 2m5f – 3m 18.8% vs 10.9% · n=32
With Nicky Richards 15.2% vs 10.9% · n=46
In Chase races 15.2% vs 10.9% · n=33
In Hurdle races 8.8% vs 10.9% · n=57
Off a 31-60-day break 13.2% vs 10.9% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 57 5 8.8% −37.56
Chase 33 5 15.2% −8.11
NH Flat 10 1 10% −5.67
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft 35 4 11.4% −20.76
Soft 24 2 8.3% −6.00
Good 20 3 15% −6.84
Heavy 16 1 6.3% −14.47
Good to Firm 6 1 16.7% −4.27

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle 17 5 29.4% +2.44
Kelso 12 1 8.3% −10.47
Ayr 11 0 0% −11.00
Musselburgh 9 1 11.1% −4.67
Cheltenham 6 0 0% −6.00
Sedgefield 5 0 0% −5.00
Carlisle 5 1 20% −3.64
Wincanton 5 2 40% +13.00
Market Rasen 4 0 0% −4.00
Haydock 3 0 0% −3.00
Kempton 3 0 0% −3.00
Aintree 3 0 0% −3.00
Sandown 2 0 0% −2.00
Wetherby 2 0 0% −2.00
Newbury 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 44 5 11.4% −30.55
Class 3 22 3 13.6% +0.00
Class 1 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 5 10 2 20% +0.83
Class 6 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 2 5 1 20% −2.62

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 15 5 33.3% 1.01 −4.00
2nd–3rd fav 27 5 18.5% 1.30 −2.34
4th–6th fav 30 0 0% 0.00 −30.00
7th+ in betting 29 1 3.4% 1.01 −16.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
63.3% completed · 90 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 33 51.5% 1 1 14 0 0
Hurdle 57 70.2% 0 1 16 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Scarvagh Diamond (IRE) 3 1 2 29 Mar 08
Cornerback (IRE) 3 1 1 29 Mar 08
Silver Steel (FR) 3 0 1 26 Mar 08
Ballyvoge (IRE) 2 1 2 10 Apr 08
Nacarat (FR) 2 1 1 4 Apr 08
Monet's Garden (IRE) 2 0 1 3 Apr 08
Etched In Stone (IRE) 2 0 2 30 Mar 08
Benmadigan (IRE) 2 0 0 25 Mar 08
Echo Point (IRE) 2 0 1 19 Mar 08
Run To Space (GB) 2 0 0 15 Mar 08
Bedlam Boy (IRE) 2 0 0 14 Mar 08
Noble Alan (GER) 2 1 2 4 Mar 08
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 83 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
12101017····0···
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardNicky Richards
46% of all rides
15.2% SR · A/E 0.91
TrainerRWSR£1
Nicky Richards 46 7 15.2% −24.17
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
238
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£2.75m
Prize money
2005
Best season · 98 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Monet's Garden (IRE) — John Smith's Melling Chase (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2007 · Class 1
£114,040
Exotic Dancer (FR) — Boylesports.com Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cheltenham · Dec 2006 · Class 1
£85,530
Monet's Garden (IRE) — Commercial First Ascot Chase (Grade 1) Ascot · Feb 2007 · Class 1
£84,675
Notable horses
Monet's Garden (IRE) According To John (IRE) Faasel (IRE) Bafana Boy (GB) Annie's Answer (IRE) Turpin Green (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Bob Back (USA) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Presenting (GB) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
King's Theatre (IRE) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Roselier (FR) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.1% of 374 runs since 2008 (71 horses).
Zaffaran (USA) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,087 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 209. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4% from 174. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 5.2% from 155.
Luso (GB) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 6.7% of 3,516 runs since 2008 (389 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,437 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,437 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 8 September 2010.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Sep 10 Doncaster Grand Diamond (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Fudge And Smudge Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 16 ran 6th 8/1
10 Apr 08 Carlisle Ballyvoge (IRE)T: Nicky Richards Dobbs Finale & Future Best Wishes Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 1st 4/11F
10 Apr 08 Carlisle Fistral (GB)T: Peter Niven Blackwell Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 13 ran PU 5/1F
05 Apr 08 Aintree Point Barrow (IRE)T: P Hughes John Smith's Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3Class 1 · 36f · Good · 40 ran PU 25/1
04 Apr 08 Aintree Nacarat (FR)T: Tom George John Smith's Topham Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran F 12/1
03 Apr 08 Aintree Monet's Garden (IRE)T: Nicky Richards totesport Bowl Chase (Grade 2)Class 1 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 4th 8/1
01 Apr 08 Wetherby Mr Barnacle (IRE)T: Nicky Richards Jabra GN & Rocom Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 23f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd EvensF
30 Mar 08 Hexham Etched In Stone (IRE)T: Nicky Richards Centurion Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 23.5f · Heavy · 10 ran 2nd 6/4F
29 Mar 08 Newbury Cornerback (IRE)T: Nicky Richards EBF Byrne Bros Mares' 'NH' Novices' Handicap Hdl Final (Lst)Class 1 · 20.5f · Soft · 17 ran PU 14/1
29 Mar 08 Newbury Scarvagh Diamond (IRE)T: Nicky Richards E.B.F./TBA Mares' Novices' Handicap Chase Final (Listed)Class 1 · 22.5f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 6/1J
26 Mar 08 Newcastle Schelm (GER)T: Ronald O'Leary Palmer Hall Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 15 ran 1st 7/2
26 Mar 08 Newcastle Jorveybrook (IRE)T: Nicky Richards St. James Place Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Good · 15 ran 7th 11/1
26 Mar 08 Newcastle Silver Steel (FR)T: Nicky Richards Guinness Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 17 ran 4th 14/1
25 Mar 08 Sedgefield Carrietau (GB)T: Barry Murtagh GG Media Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Firm · 13 ran PU 10/1
25 Mar 08 Sedgefield Pearl (IRE)T: Ian Wood Gosforth Decorating & Building Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good To Firm · 13 ran PU 7/1
25 Mar 08 Sedgefield Benmadigan (IRE)T: Nicky Richards Camerons Brewery Novices' Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 19f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 7th 25/1
22 Mar 08 Haydock Prince des Marais (FR)T: Tim Walford Sports 360 Rugby League Advertising Specialists NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 6th 33/1
22 Mar 08 Haydock Miss Pross (GB)T: Tim Walford Sports 360 & Football Conference Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 9/2
22 Mar 08 Haydock Kempski (GB)T: Rayson Nixon Sports 360 Sports Advertising 'Fixed Brush' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 16 ran PU 10/1
19 Mar 08 Market Rasen One Sniff (IRE)T: Nicky Richards Taxis From Handsome Cabs Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 24f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tony Dobbin's strike rate?
Tony Dobbin has won 11 of 101 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Tony Dobbin's Fair A/E?
0.89, from 101 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).