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Trainer profile

David Brace

166 runners in the last 5 seasons · 28 individual horses
As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 7 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
18–166
Wins / Runs
10.8%
Strike rate
n=166
40 (24%)
Placed
1.11
Fair A/E
n=165 · 1.01 incl. margin
+110.28
£1 level stake
n=166 at SP · +66.4%
£176k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.11).

Deterministic profile computed from 166 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Connor Brace: 10.6% from 123
The read

The record is strongest at Chepstow (22.6%, n=31), clear of the yard's 10.8% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 7.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 1.02). Connor Brace rides 74% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.6%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (20.8%, n=48) and off a 31-60-day break (20.5%, n=44). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 5.7% over 53 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) — 6 wins from 45 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.5%−3.3
n=40 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −18.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.8
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.8
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=12 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −1.30
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
20%+9.2
n=10 · A/E 1.87 · £1 +4.80
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Chepstow 22.6% vs 10.8% · n=31
Over 2m5f – 3m 20.8% vs 10.8% · n=48
Off a 31-60-day break 20.5% vs 10.8% · n=44
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 5.7% vs 10.8% · n=53
With horses switching code 6.5% vs 10.8% · n=31
Over 1m5f – 2m 7% vs 10.8% · n=43
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 96 10 10.4% +128.00
Chase 58 7 12.1% −10.05
NH Flat 12 1 8.3% −7.67

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 83 8 9.6% +102.58
Good to Soft 37 3 8.1% −20.80
Soft 29 4 13.8% +10.50
Heavy 9 2 22.2% +13.00
Good to Firm 8 1 12.5% +5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chepstow 31 7 22.6% +14.75
Worcester 21 4 19% +143.33
Ffos Las 21 2 9.5% −13.80
Uttoxeter 15 0 0% −15.00
Hereford 12 0 0% −12.00
Stratford 11 0 0% −11.00
Taunton 6 1 16.7% +7.00
Exeter 6 0 0% −6.00
Newton Abbot 6 0 0% −6.00
Market Rasen 5 0 0% −5.00
Warwick 5 0 0% −5.00
Bangor-on-Dee 4 1 25% +1.50
Aintree 4 0 0% −4.00
Huntingdon 3 1 33.3% +6.50
Wincanton 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 65 8 12.3% +1.88
Class 4 61 6 9.8% +120.20
Class 3 19 2 10.5% −11.80
Class 2 15 2 13.3% +6.00
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 13 5 38.5% 1.20 +2.20
2nd–3rd fav 39 5 12.8% 0.64 −11.42
4th–6th fav 48 4 8.3% 1.26 −12.50
7th+ in betting 66 4 6.1% 2.36 +132.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
74.7% completed · 154 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 58 67.2% 0 1 17 1 0
Hurdle 96 79.2% 1 0 19 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Classic Concorde (IRE)from Andrew McNamara 25 6 9 25 Feb 26
Gats And Co (GB) 21 5 9 31 May 25
Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) 13 2 4 24 Apr 26
Thatza Dazzler (GB)from Fergal O'Brien 11 1 4 30 May 24
Newmill Getaway (IRE)then Fergal O'Brien 10 1 4 19 May 24
Go On Ya Goodthing (IRE)then Fergal O'Brien 8 0 1 18 May 24
Galeforcechopper (GB)from D J Jeffreys 6 1 1 12 Oct 26
Mi Sueno (IRE)from Paddy Butler · then Nick Scholfield 6 0 1 17 Jun 26
Junior Des Mottes (FR)from W J Burke · then Nick Scholfield 6 0 0 22 May 25
Pink Eyed Pancho (GB) 6 1 1 14 May 25
Ask A Sainte (GB)then Olly Murphy 5 0 1 4 Apr 26
Paint The Dream (GB)from Fergal O'Brien 5 0 0 21 Apr 25
All 28 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 28 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from D J Jeffreys (2) and Fergal O'Brien (2); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard, most often for Fergal O'Brien (2) and Nick Scholfield (2); 21 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0172314013025338811
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderConnor Brace
74% of all rides
10.6% SR · A/E 1.07
RiderRWSR£1
Connor Brace 123 13 10.6% −26.27
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
41
Archived wins
£390k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) — John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Chepstow · Oct 2020 · Class 2
£15,698
Classic Concorde (IRE) — Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Chepstow · Dec 2023 · Class 2
£15,609
Classic Concorde (IRE) — tote.co.uk Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle Bangor-on-Dee · Oct 2023 · Class 4
£10,406
Notable horses
Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) Classic Concorde (IRE) Gats And Co (GB) Colorado Doc (GB) Moon Catcher (GB) Shanandoa (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dr Massini (IRE) 18.9% · 7–37
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Shantou (USA) 24% · 6–25
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,819 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Getaway (GER) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,912 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Ask (GB) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,214 runs since 2008 (283 horses).
Blue Bresil (FR) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,487 runs since 2008 (454 horses).
Jet Away (GB) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,496 runs since 2008 (267 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 474 · newest first

The latest 50 of 474 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 12 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Oct 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 50/1
25 Sep 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 28/1
20 Sep 26 Plumpton Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison Dominic Hill Accountants & Thorne Civil Engineers Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 9/2
04 Sep 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison John Burke Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 1st 150/1
22 Jul 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: James Turner Colin Jones Memorial Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Div I)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 9th 125/1
19 Jul 26 Stratford Ghost Pepper (IRE)J: James Turner Dave Shrader Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 18/1
17 Jun 26 Worcester Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison CopyBet BOG Now Royal Ascot Friday Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 7/1
17 Jun 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: James Turner CopyBet Daily World Cup Profit Boost Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 125/1
17 May 26 Stratford Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Boss & The Hoggs Live On The 30th May Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 17/2
09 May 26 Warwick Roll A Dollar (GB)J: Liam Harrison Claverdon FC Have Done The Double Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 8/1
05 May 26 Hereford Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Wye Valley Skips Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran PU 11/2
24 Apr 26 Chepstow Pink Eyed Pedro (GB)J: Mr James King Dunraven Bowl Pink Eyed Pedro 'Grassroots' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 9/1
22 Apr 26 Taunton Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Tristan Durrell Dave Criddle Travel Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 15/2
09 Apr 26 Taunton Roll A Dollar (GB)J: Liam Harrison St Michael's Church Orchard Portman Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/4
04 Apr 26 Newton Abbot Ask A Sainte (GB)J: Finn Lambert South West Rail Solutions Ltd. 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 12/1
24 Mar 26 Taunton Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison 4Racing Owners Club Charitable Syndicates Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 11/1
25 Feb 26 Bangor-on-Dee Classic Concorde (IRE)J: Harry Atkins Legend, The Mogul, Chris Rowe Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 23f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 9/2
13 Feb 26 Chepstow Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Dunraven Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 11 ran PU 12/1
12 Feb 26 Leicester Applicationofcash (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Leicester Racecourse - Ideal Self-Hire Wedding Venue Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 20/1
26 Jan 26 Plumpton Applicationofcash (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Southern Cranes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Brace's strike rate?
David Brace has won 18 of 166 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Brace do best at?
Chepstow by strike rate: 7 wins from 31 runners (22.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Brace?
Connor Brace, with 123 runners since 2022 — 74% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (10.6%).
Is David Brace in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Brace's Fair A/E?
1.11, from 165 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 19 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).