1:15 Ascot
The Betmgm British Ebf October Stakes is a competitive Class 1 Listed event over 7f at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring a field of 12 three- and four-year-olds with ratings clustered tightly between 83 and 103. The KTB Fit scores highlight a narrow margin at the top, with So Regal just edging Midnight Tango on 64 to 63, while the remainder of the principals sit between 60 and 56. Several runners have shown prior form at the track, and the lone-leader pace shape adds an extra dimension to how the race may unfold.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, Just A Girl is expected to bowl along in front with little to no pressure in the early stages, potentially stealing an uncontested advantage. The remainder of the field is dominated by held-up runners, including all five principals, who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace in the straight. This setup poses the key question of whether any of the closers can bridge the gap to a horse enjoying an easy lead on good to firm ground at Ascot.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1So Regal KTB Selection64/100
So Regal is a useful three-year-old with an official rating of 103 and a strong recent record of 3-1125. He has already won here from his one run at Ascot and dropping back to 7f looks a sensible move after his last run over a mile, a trip where he has already shown he handles the distance. The colt is held up, usually producing his effort late, and he holds a 1-1 record on good to firm ground. John and Thady Gosden have a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.82 from 319 runs, which is offset by Billy Loughnane's solid 10% strike rate and A/E of 1.01 from 140 rides at the track, along with the yard and jockey combination's 5-17 record together.
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2Midnight Tango63/100
Midnight Tango is a useful performer with an official rating of 102 and recent form figures of 60-206. He has shown his best form at this track, with a second and a fourth from three runs here, though he is yet to win at Ascot. Stepping up to 7f for the first time today after recent efforts over 6f leaves that distance switch as a question mark. The colt is held up, usually producing his effort late, and he has been placed twice from five runs on good to firm. Ed Walker has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.19 from 264 runs, while Kieran Shoemark has a 9% strike rate and A/E of 1.09 from 254 rides at the course, and the pair hold a 78-495 record together.
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3Dash of Azure60/100
Dash of Azure is a useful performer with an official rating of 100 and recent form figures of 702209. He has run well at this track before, finishing second here last season from three runs at Ascot, though he is yet to win at the course. Stepping up from 6f today is a positive move as he has already won twice over this trip earlier in his career, despite being out of form on his last three starts. The four-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence, and he has been placed twice from eight runs on good to firm. Ralph Beckett has an 8% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.67 from 461 runs, offset by Callum Hutchinson's solid 9% strike rate and A/E of 1.36 from 22 rides at the track.
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4Awaken57/100
Awaken is a useful performer with an official rating of 99 and recent form figures of -00646. He has shown his best form at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start from two runs at Ascot, though he is yet to win at the course. Dropping back from 1m1f to 7f takes him to a trip where he is yet to make an impact, while his recent form has been patchy. The three-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and he has been placed twice from five runs on good to firm. George Boughey has a 7% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.72 from 135 runs, and Daniel Tudhope has an 8% strike rate and A/E of 0.98 from 308 rides at the track, with the pair holding an 8-44 record together.
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5Josh's Joy56/100
Josh's Joy is a useful performer with an official rating of 94 and recent form figures of 31-755. He has shown his best form when placed over this trip and has run respectably on both visits to Ascot without threatening to win either time. The three-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence, though he has no runs on good to firm and remains unproven on the surface. Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.98 from 22 runs, and Jason Watson has a 9% strike rate and A/E of 0.98 from 148 rides at the track.
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6Domina Ignis54/100
Domina Ignis is a useful performer with an official rating of 97 and recent form figures of 1-3007. She has not built on her winning debut, ran poorly over this course and trip on her most recent start, and her record at Ascot reads 0-1 with a distant 13th. Kevin Philippart de Foy and Clifford Lee both have modest strike rates at the track.
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7American Gal51/100
American Gal is a useful performer with an official rating of 96 and recent form figures of -79008. She has run well at this track once, finishing second here last year, though her recent form has been poor and she is 0-2 on good to firm ground. Ralph Beckett and Lewis Edmunds both have modest strike rates at Ascot.
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8Secret History51/100
Secret History is a fair three-year-old with an official rating of 83, recent form figures of 114136, and two wins from five starts at this trip. He has shown useful ability on good to firm with two wins and a place from four runs on the surface while stepping up in class. Ed Walker has a strong 13% strike rate at Ascot, though jockey George Downing operates at a more modest 5% here.
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9Mostar Dreams50/100
Mostar Dreams is a useful performer with an official rating of 95 and recent form figures of 924399. He steps up to 7f for the first time since recording two wins at the trip earlier in his career, with two wins from seven runs on good to firm. Adrian Keatley has a 0% strike rate at Ascot from 19 runs, while Barry McHugh is 1-34 here.
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10Albaydaa49/100
Albaydaa is a fair three-year-old with an official rating of 89, recent form figures of 321582, and two wins at this trip. She has shown her liking for Ascot by finishing second here on her only run at the track and has won on good to firm ground. William Haggas has a 13% strike rate at Ascot, while Harry Davies operates at 8%.
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11Breckenbrough48/100
Breckenbrough is a useful performer with an official rating of 98 and recent form figures of -34556. He has run creditably without winning in this grade and was third on his only previous visit to Ascot. Mario Baratti has a 0% strike rate at the track from four runs, while Sean Levey has a 4% strike rate from 281 rides here.
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12Just A Girl47/100
Just A Girl is a useful performer with an official rating of 95 and recent form figures of 422283. She has been knocking on the door this year without quite getting her head in front, has shown enough on good to firm to cope with today's surface, and the drop back to 7f looks fair after her last run over 7½f. Charlie Johnston and Callum Shepherd both have modest strike rates at Ascot.
KTB verdict
So Regal stands out as the KTB Selection. The useful three-year-old brings a strong recent record, has already won at Ascot from his sole visit, and looks ideally suited by the drop back to 7f where he has previous experience. His held-up run style should see him delivered late against a lone leader who may get an easy time upfront. Midnight Tango, Dash of Azure and Awaken are the main dangers, all with placed form at the track and the ability to feature if the pace shape plays into their hands.
KTB Selection So Regal
This is the narrative read of the 1:15 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Ascot?
So Regal has won here from one run at Ascot.
How does the lone-leader pace shape affect the principals?
All five principals are held-up types who usually produce their effort late, so the uncontested lead could make it hard for them to peg back the front-runner.
Which runner is stepping up in class?
Secret History, Mostar Dreams and Albaydaa are all stepping up in class.
Who has the best trainer-jockey strike rate combination at Ascot among the principals?
Ed Walker has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.19 from 264 runs when teaming up with Kieran Shoemark on Midnight Tango.
Which horse is unproven on good to firm ground?
Josh's Joy has no runs on good to firm and remains unproven on the ground.
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