1:45 Limerick
A 20-runner maiden hurdle at Limerick over 2m3f50y on yielding ground looks a typically competitive early-season affair. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with no standout standout on pure numbers, though the selection carries the highest mark at 58. Most of the field are unproven on the surface and over the trip, making this a race where experience, trainer form at the track and how the steadily-run pace shape unfolds will be key.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in a field that largely prefers to be held up or race in mid-division, the pace is set to be steady and tactical. Prominent runners such as Born De Ceres may be asked to go forward early in what is otherwise a race lacking natural pace. The key question is whether being handy will prove an advantage on this yielding surface or whether the closers can time their efforts effectively in a steadily-run contest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1My Elusive Mate KTB Selection58/100
My Elusive Mate has shown modest form in three starts to date, finishing no better than seventh. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is also tried. The trainer holds a 6% strike rate at Limerick from 17 runs and the jockey is operating at 13% from 54 rides here. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 4-year-old will need the steadily-run pace to unfold in his favour. The KTB Fit of 58 makes him the top-rated in the field and he is the selection.
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2Youknowthecode55/100
Youknowthecode is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings. He has struggled to make an impact in two starts this year and now steps up in trip for the first time. Trainer Gordon Elliott holds a solid 15% strike rate at Limerick from a large sample while the claiming jockey has a respectable 12% record here from limited rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the 4-year-old brings an official rating of 96 which is competitive in this company. The KTB Fit of 55 keeps him firmly in the picture.
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3Tiffany Case53/100
Tiffany Case is lightly raced after just three starts with modest recent form of 958. The yard has a strong 29% strike rate at Limerick from 14 runs while Flanagan has a more modest 9% record from 500 rides here. The trip looks a fair question after one unplaced run at this distance and the small overall sample means going suitability remains unknown. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 5-year-old will be hoping the tactical pace helps her mount a challenge. The KTB Fit of 53 leaves her with place claims at best.
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4Rumble Demosa49/100
Rumble Demosa is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has failed to land a blow in four starts so far and now drops back in trip having been well held over slightly further last time. Trainer Eoin Griffin records a 9% strike rate from 158 runs at Limerick. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 5-year-old carries an official rating of 90. The KTB Fit of 49 suggests he needs to improve to figure prominently.
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5Back Swath47/100
Back Swath is lightly raced with only two poor efforts so far so the form offers little to go on. The step up in trip is an unknown and the small sample makes it impossible to judge whether the ground or the longer distance will suit. Trainer Ray Hackett has a solid 11% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample but the jockey is still seeking a first win from 18 rides here. Typically settling in midfield, the 7-year-old has a KTB Fit of 47 and will need to show significant improvement.
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6Man Down47/100
Man Down is lightly raced with only three starts this year and a recent form line of 4P067 that offers little encouragement. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 47 runs at Limerick while the jockey is even quieter on 2% from 58 rides here. Stepping up in trip is an unknown at this stage.
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7Nameyourgame47/100
Nameyourgame is a lightly raced 4-year-old with only two completed starts and a pulled-up effort last time, so the bare form offers little to go on. The step up in trip is an unknown that could suit or expose him further. Trainer strikes at 9% here from 23 runs while jockey is operating at 15% from 117 rides.
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8Born De Ceres47/100
Born De Ceres has shown modest form in three runs to date, finishing midfield or worse on each occasion. The yard's record at Limerick is poor at 4% from 161 runs while the jockey fares better with an 11% strike rate from 131 rides here. Stepping up markedly in trip asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced 4-year-old and the small sample means any firm conclusions should be treated with caution. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
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9Poet's Duke46/100
Poet's Duke has shown very little in three starts to date and was well beaten on his most recent outing. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only a modest level of form on the board. Trainer Paul Nolan has a solid 14% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample while jockey Eoin Staples is still seeking his first winner here from seven rides.
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10Akako46/100
Akako is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has failed to land a blow in two starts at this trip and the yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Limerick offers little encouragement. The 7 lb claimer is also still seeking a first winner here from nine rides.
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11Mia In Milan46/100
Mia In Milan is a useful performer who has shown little spark in five starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when sixth of 14 last time. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at Limerick. Trip looks a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge on the one previous attempt at this distance.
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12Jennyfromtheblock45/100
Jennyfromtheblock is a lightly raced mare who showed ability when second on debut before falling next time and finishing fifth on return. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Limerick though the small sample means this effort is best read with caution.
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13Caoimhe45/100
Caoimhe is a lightly raced mare with just two completed starts and a win in a point. She showed little in two bumper runs last year and steps up markedly in trip today for a yard with a modest 6% strike rate at Limerick. Jockey has an 8% record here but the small amount of evidence available makes this one hard to assess with any confidence.
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14Without Deception44/100
Without Deception is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just two starts behind him and form figures of 05. The step up from 2m to 2m3f today asks a fresh question. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 27 runs at Limerick while jockey is operating at 12% from 100 rides here.
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15Lyrical Park42/100
Lyrical Park has shown modest form at best so far with a recent tailed-off effort on return. Lightly raced with only four career starts he steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in his sole attempt at this distance. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Limerick.
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16Go Mike Go41/100
Go Mike Go has a patchy recent record of 4PUU0 and has only run twice in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence. The trainer operates at a 2% strike rate from 55 runs at Limerick while Keith Donoghue fares better with an 11% record from 184 rides here. Dropping back in trip is an unknown and the going remains an open question given the tiny sample.
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17Big Boy Dan41/100
Big Boy Dan has only two career runs and finished a remote fifth on his sole visit to this track. The yard's tiny sample at Limerick offers no reliable guide while the jockey's modest 7% strike-rate from a huge number of rides here is equally uninspiring. With so little data to go on the horse remains hard to assess.
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18Macoo40/100
Macoo has only two runs in the last year and showed little in either of them. The yard has a poor 0% strike rate from 23 runs at Limerick while the jockey has too few rides here to draw any conclusions. First-time headgear is now fitted as he drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried.
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19Pixie Hill40/100
Pixie Hill is a fair maiden who has shown very little in four starts, finishing well beaten on all three completed efforts. She was tenth on her only visit to Limerick and the yard has a 0% strike-rate from five runs here. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of a horse with limited racecourse evidence overall.
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20Crios Cu Chulainn39/100
Crios Cu Chulainn is lightly raced with just three runs and recent form of 976 that offers little encouragement. Steps up in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has only had two runners at Limerick so the small sample prevents any firm read, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate from 12 rides here.
KTB verdict
My Elusive Mate is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit ratings at 58 despite modest form in three starts, with the first-time headgear and step up in trip offering new hope in a race where many are unproven or out of form. The combination of trainer and jockey records at Limerick adds to his appeal in what looks a steadily-run affair that could suit his held-up style. Main dangers are Youknowthecode, who brings the highest official rating at 96 and solid yard support at the track, and Tiffany Case, who represents a yard in strong form here. Rumble Demosa and a couple of the longer-priced runners with bits of ability cannot be entirely ruled out in a race where so many have questions to answer.
KTB Selection My Elusive Mate
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:18 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| My Elusive Mate | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Youknowthecode | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Tiffany Case | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Rumble Demosa | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Back Swath | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Man Down | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Nameyourgame | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Born De Ceres | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Poet's Duke | 10/1 | BoyleSports |
| Akako | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Mia In Milan | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Jennyfromtheblock | 7/2 | Coral |
| Caoimhe | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Without Deception | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Lyrical Park | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Go Mike Go | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Big Boy Dan | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Macoo | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Pixie Hill | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Crios Cu Chulainn | 40/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Limerick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Limerick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on yielding ground but has first-time headgear applied?
My Elusive Mate has no runs on yielding ground and is fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Limerick in this field?
Tiffany Case's trainer has a 29% strike rate at Limerick from 14 runs.
Which runner is the only one with an official rating above 95?
Youknowthecode has an official rating of 96.
How is the pace expected to unfold and what does it favour?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse represents the yard with the best recent LSP at Limerick among the principals?
Back Swath's trainer-jockey combination shows +£78.00 LSP.
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