1:49 Clonmel
This 1:49 Clonmel Handicap Hurdle over 2m0f166y on good ground brings together a competitive field of twelve where official ratings sit in a relatively tight band from 90 to 114. The KTB Fit Scores identify a clear top five with St Denis's Well heading the list on 64, followed closely by Dairy Force, Nelson Muntz, Stepdance and Vaureal, all rated in the high 50s. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks a leader, the pace is expected to be tactical and steadily run, placing emphasis on those who can position effectively and deliver late.
How the race shapes up
Given the pace shape that lacks a leader and the fact that every runner in the field is described as held up, the race is likely to unfold as a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy on the turn could prove decisive. With so many horses waiting to pounce from off the pace, the key question will be whether the leaders can set a pace strong enough to stretch the field or whether the race will collapse into a sprint for the line that favours those with the strongest finishing kick. The good ground should allow plenty of fluency, but the absence of an obvious pace-setter makes early positioning vital.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1St Denis's Well KTB Selection64/100
St Denis's Well arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 64 and an official rating of 114. This smart performer has run well at Clonmel before, finishing a solid fourth on his only visit, and he is dropping back from a much longer trip where he has previously won at today's distance. The Ian Patrick Donoghue yard posts an above-par 11% strike-rate at the track from a small sample, though the trainer-jockey combination shows a modest 3/72 record overall. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no win or place from four starts on good ground which remains a concern, while the jockey has no record at Clonmel. Recent form of 16P29- suggests ability but also inconsistency.
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2Dairy Force60/100
Dairy Force is rated a strong second on KTB Fit with a score of 60 and carries an official rating of 105. This smart performer has been placed on both starts at Clonmel, including a second on his only visit here, and he handles good ground having been placed three times from eight starts. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he drops back in trip today after being competitive over slightly further last time out. Gordon Elliott holds a solid 19% strike-rate at the venue from a huge sample of 515 runs, while the jockey has a 13% record at Clonmel. Recent form figures of 253F62 underline his consistency at this level.
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3Nelson Muntz59/100
Nelson Muntz carries a KTB Fit Score of 59 and an official rating of 113. This smart performer has placed without winning at this trip and showed his best effort at Clonmel when third over further on his only visit to the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he has been below form on his last two starts and now drops back in distance which poses a fresh question. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Clonmel from 111 runs is a negative, though the jockey has an 11% record at the venue. Recent form of 430-56 reflects a slight dip in fortunes.
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4Stepdance58/100
Stepdance is given a KTB Fit Score of 58 and an official rating of 109. This smart performer has been below par this season, with a recent pulled-up effort adding to the negatives, and now steps up in trip having shown little at around two miles previously. He makes his first appearance at Clonmel. Usually held up with high confidence, Henry de Bromhead has a solid 18% strike-rate at the track from 422 runs, while the jockey holds a 14% record here. He has two wins from nine starts on good ground. Recent form reads 558-P.
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5Vaureal56/100
Vaureal completes the principals with a KTB Fit Score of 56 and an official rating of 105. This smart performer arrives in solid form after a recent win and has useful placed efforts on his record, though he drops back in trip having been out of the frame in his only previous run at this distance. Usually held up with high confidence, he has no win or place from three starts on good ground which is a modest record. The trainer has an above-average 11% strike-rate at Clonmel from limited runners, but this is the horse's first run at the venue. Recent form of 5425-1 shows his current wellbeing.
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6Silly Mongoose55/100
Silly Mongoose is rated a useful performer on his day with a KTB Fit Score of 55. He has shown enough in recent starts to stay competitive at this level yet has a bit to find on his sole run at Clonmel where he finished fifth, and his record on good ground is ordinary. Dropping back in trip today adds a fresh question.
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7Earthwatch54/100
Earthwatch is a useful performer on his day but has been out of sorts for a while and failed to complete when last seen at this track. He steps up markedly in trip today having been campaigned over much shorter recently, which asks a fresh question. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate at Clonmel.
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8Kazakh d'Arthel46/100
Kazakh d'Arthel is a useful performer who has been out of form this year with three poor runs after a fall. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow in six previous attempts at this distance. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Clonmel from a large sample adds to the negatives.
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9Max Meridius44/100
Max Meridius is a useful performer who has shown enough on his day to win races at this level. He has been below form on his last two starts and has a patchy course record at Clonmel with no placed efforts from three runs. The trainer operates at a 10% strike rate at the venue.
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10Home By The Sea44/100
Home By The Sea is a useful performer who has not found the frame in six runs this year and was well held when last seen. He drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance, while first-time headgear is now applied in the hope of a spark. He was well beaten on his only previous run at Clonmel.
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11Champagne Dawn43/100
Champagne Dawn is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for some time with recent efforts poor. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Clonmel from a big sample suggests limited encouragement, and the horse is 0-4 on good ground. Dropping back in trip today poses a fresh question.
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12Kome Dans Un Reve35/100
Kome Dans Un Reve is useful on his day but has struggled to make an impact since returning from a break. He has shown little spark in three runs this year and his record at Clonmel reads eighth and unseated with no placed efforts. The trip has not worked out in three attempts and the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the venue adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
St Denis's Well stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer who has run well at this track before, including a solid fourth on his only visit, and he is dropping back from a longer trip at which he has won at today's distance in the past. The trainer's above-par record at Clonmel adds to the appeal even if his record on good ground is a slight worry. The main dangers are headed by Dairy Force, who has been placed on both starts at the track and handles the ground, and Nelson Muntz, who showed his best effort here when third over further on his only visit, though both must overcome recent dips in form.
KTB Selection St Denis's Well
This is the narrative read of the 1:49 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is that score?
St Denis's Well has the highest KTB Fit Score of 64.
How many horses in the field are described as usually held up?
All twelve horses in the field are described as held up and usually producing their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Clonmel according to the supplied data?
Gordon Elliott has a 19% strike rate at Clonmel from 515 runs.
Which horse is making its first appearance at Clonmel and stepping up in trip?
Stepdance is making his first appearance at Clonmel and steps up in trip today.
What is the only headgear flag in the race and on which horse?
First-time headgear is worn by Home By The Sea.
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