1:54 Nottingham
This Class 4 EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m75y at Nottingham on good to soft ground features a field of 14, many of them lightly raced or making their debut. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals showing modest to fair ability on limited evidence and several trainers enjoying decent records at the venue. Overall the numbers point to a race where progression, the application of headgear and how the steady pace unfolds will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With several runners whose run-style is to be held up and come late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question is whether those racing prominently, such as Nascondino, can maintain an advantage or if the closers will be able to pick them up in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ovage KTB Selection60/100
Ovage made a modest start when eighth on debut over 1m2f. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 20% strike rate from five runs at Nottingham. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though that assessment is based on limited evidence with low confidence. The jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track. Dropping in class, he is the KTB selection.
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2Lone Warrior56/100
Lone Warrior is a fair performer who has shown steady progress in three starts and finished a clear second over this trip on his most recent outing. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition while the yard continue in solid form at this track with a 17% strike rate. He is held up, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment. Lightly raced with only three runs on his record so there is still scope for further improvement. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 20% strike rate.
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3Eagleonthebalcony52/100
Eagleonthebalcony is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The Jim Goldie yard has an 8% strike rate from 24 runs at Nottingham while first-time headgear is also applied. Pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but overall data confidence remains low. By Gleneagles, who has an 11% overall win rate. The jockey has a 100% strike rate at Nottingham from one ride.
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4Certainty52/100
Certainty has been well beaten on both starts to date and arrives here with a 0-3 recent form line. The trainer operates at a 4% strike rate from 23 runs at Nottingham. Trip and ground both remain unproven on this small sample, with one run on good to soft yielding no win or place. The jockey has an 18% strike rate at the track.
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5Nascondino50/100
Nascondino has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate from 31 runs at Nottingham. With just two career runs on his record the overall picture remains tentative. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead though that read is based on limited evidence with low confidence. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 14% strike rate.
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6Ensor Mews49/100
Ensor Mews showed fair promise when fifth on debut and then finished a close third last time. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success. The Ralph Beckett yard has a solid 18 percent strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample. He is held up, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence.
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7Intsaar49/100
Roger Varian's lightly-raced 3-year-old showed little on his only start over this trip. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample. With just one run on the clock and no meaningful going data, any firm conclusions would be premature.
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8Medaali48/100
Medaali is a debutant with a first-time hood and low data confidence. Pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here as there is no racecourse form to go on. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 83 runs while Oisin Murphy takes the ride.
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9Trustintimes46/100
Lightly raced 5-year-old who has only eight runs in the book and drops sharply from 2m4f to an untried 1m today. He has shown some competitiveness on good to soft ground with a placed effort from two starts but the small overall sample makes his level hard to pin down. Trainer has only three runs at Nottingham so that is too few to judge. He is held up, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence.
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10Eagles Instinct45/100
Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 57 form line, so expectations have to be kept low. The trip looks no problem on the surface of it but the small sample means there is not much else to go on. Goldie has an 8% strike rate here from 24 runs while Mulrennan is aboard. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though with low confidence.
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11Mile End Road45/100
Lightly raced 3 year old with just one run to go on after finishing fifth on debut over 7f. Steps up to an untested 1m today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a 15% strike rate from 27 runs at Nottingham while data confidence remains low given the small sample. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though with low confidence.
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12Emerald Spirit44/100
Emerald Spirit has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh and eighth. He now drops back to 1m having looked stretched by 1m3f last time, though he failed to make an impact when tried at today's trip on his debut. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Nottingham adds little encouragement. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though with low confidence.
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13Journalism44/100
Journalism showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip at Kempton last month. The small sample means there is little else to go on regarding ability, trip requirements or ground preference. Trainer and jockey both operate with very limited data at Nottingham. One run on good to soft yielded no win or place.
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14Adamlyi44/100
Fair performer who has shown ability in two of his three starts, finishing second on both occasions at this trip. He was well held when fifth on his only visit to Nottingham though and the small sample on good to soft means his effectiveness on the surface remains an open question. Haggas has a solid 19% strike rate at the track while Marquand is aboard. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though with low confidence.
KTB verdict
Ovage is the KTB selection. He made a modest start when eighth on debut over 1m2f but now drops in trip and in class, with the trainer holding a 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a small but effective sample. The steadily-run race should suit his held-up style if he can find the necessary improvement. His main dangers are Lone Warrior, who showed steady progress and a clear second last time with first-time headgear now added, and the debutant Eagleonthebalcony who brings some pedigree interest along with the yard's modest but workable record at the track. Nascondino and Certainty complete the main principals in a race where many runners have limited data.
KTB Selection Ovage
This is the narrative read of the 1:54 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely to be a steadily-run affair in which being handy pays.
How many runners are making their debut?
Two debutants: Eagleonthebalcony and Medaali.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham among those with meaningful data?
Charlie Pike has a 20% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 2.96 from five runs, while Roger Varian also shows 20% from a much larger sample.
Which horse has course form at Nottingham?
Only Adamlyi, who finished fifth on his only visit here.
How many of the field are unproven on good to soft ground?
Ten runners have no runs on good to soft: Ovage, Lone Warrior, Nascondino, Ensor Mews, Intsaar, Eagles Instinct, Mile End Road, Emerald Spirit, plus the two debutants who have no ground data.
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