2:00 Limerick
The PwC Mares Maiden Hurdle at Limerick over 2m0f125y on yielding ground brings together a dozen runners in a race that lacks an obvious leader. KTB's Fit scores point to a competitive but modest affair overall, headed by Kimi de Mai on 62 with the next five clustered between 54 and 47; several runners arrive with light profiles or recent absences that leave the form difficult to weigh with complete confidence. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the contest on this surface should place a premium on being handy and adapting to the pace.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runner in the field the pace shape is expected to be steady rather than searching, producing a tactical race in which those capable of racing handily should hold an advantage. Kimi de Mai is the one most likely to be prominent and dictate matters on his terms, while the likes of Brickfield Belle, Jury Time and Aboras Mahler are all noted for racing held up and will need to time their efforts precisely off what could be a modest gallop. The key question is whether the selection can translate his smart recent placed efforts back to this shorter trip while the yard and jockey combination continue to fire at a track where both have strong records.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kimi de Mai KTB Selection62/100
Kimi de Mai arrives as the clear top pick on KTB ratings with a Fit score of 62 and an official rating of 114. A smart performer, he has finished second in both starts this season and is sure to go well again. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip he has tried twice without success, so that remains a question to answer. Trained by W P Mullins, who has a 29% strike rate at Limerick from 771 runs with an A/E of 0.94, he is ridden by Paul Townend who posts a 26% record at the track from 282 rides with an A/E of 1.02. Usually prominent and racing handily, he has one run on yielding ground without a win or place and no previous course form on record.
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2George's Order54/100
George's Order is rated second on KTB's Fit scale with a mark of 54 but brings one of the lighter profiles in the field. He has only one career run to his name and that came without success over today's trip. The yard of Sean Joseph Allen has a solid 10% strike-rate from ten runs at Limerick with an A/E of 2.02, though the 7 lb claimer Rian Lane is 0-1 at the track. Unproven on yielding ground and with no course form, the overall picture is impossible to weigh up with any real confidence given the lack of evidence.
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3Whelkeen View49/100
Whelkeen View is a debutant rated 49 on KTB's Fit scale and therefore offers no racecourse form on which to base firm conclusions. Pedigree and sales background provide the main pointers in the absence of hard data. Trainer Paul Nolan has a solid 14% strike rate at Limerick from 470 runs with an A/E of 0.98, while Sean Flanagan sits on a 9% record from 506 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.83. No going data is available and there is no course win on record, keeping the level of confidence low.
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4Brickfield Belle48/100
Brickfield Belle has shown steady progress across her three runs and won readily last time out at today's trip, earning a KTB Fit score of 48. Henry de Bromhead's yard holds a solid 15% strike rate at Limerick from 523 runs with an A/E of 0.84, though jockey Darragh O'Keeffe is operating at 8% from 252 rides here with an A/E of 0.6. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she remains unproven on yielding ground and has no course form on record. With only three career starts the overall picture remains relatively light on hard evidence.
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5Jury Time47/100
Jury Time carries a KTB Fit score of 47 and has placed in all three of his starts at Limerick, including when showing some ability on his hurdling debut last season. He has been off the track for a year and remains lightly raced with only three career runs behind him. The yard of S Curling has an 8% strike rate at Limerick from 73 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while Phillip Enright posts a 7% record from 686 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.78. Usually held up, he is unproven on yielding ground but has course placings of third, second and third to his name.
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6French Adventure46/100
French Adventure has shown some ability on the Flat with placed efforts but was pulled up on his hurdling debut and then finished tailed off last time, recording a KTB Fit score of 46. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Limerick from 85 runs while the jockey is operating at 11% from 27 rides here; with only one run this year and limited overall data this is very much a watching brief.
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7Coffeemorninggirls46/100
Coffeemorninggirls is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on and a KTB Fit score of 46. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample, though the 5 lb claiming jockey is 0-8 at the track; pedigree and sales information is the main guide here given the low data confidence.
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8Naught But Nice44/100
Naught But Nice showed nothing on her sole start when pulled up over 2m3f here and now drops back in trip with first-time headgear and a 7 lb claimer aboard, rated 44 on KTB's Fit scale. Trainer Robert Tyner has a solid 11% strike rate from 261 runs at Limerick but the jockey is still seeking her first winner from 11 rides at the track.
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9Silk Buds44/100
Silk Buds has shown modest placed form at this trip on her latest two starts but arrives off the back of a poor run last time, holding a KTB Fit score of 44. The yard has failed to land a winner from six attempts at Limerick while the lightly raced profile means there is still plenty to learn about her; jockey Liam McKenna has an 8% strike rate from 52 rides here.
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10Aboras Mahler43/100
Aboras Mahler is a useful performer who has shown steady improvement this year with two placed efforts from his last three starts and carries an official rating of 98. He drops back in trip to 2m today for the first time which asks a fresh question; trainer and jockey both have solid records at Limerick though the horse himself was well held on his only run here.
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11Cerulean Summer40/100
Cerulean Summer has modest overall form and arrives off a poor recent run, rated 40 on KTB's Fit scale. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 40 runs at Limerick while the jockey is also 0-from-10 here, and the horse is unproven on yielding ground while making its first appearance at the track.
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12Lucky Valley38/100
Lucky Valley is lightly raced with just one run in the last year so any assessment has to be cautious, recording a KTB Fit score of 38. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 38 runs at Limerick while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from 31 rides here; he steps up in trip today for a question that has not yet been answered.
KTB verdict
Kimi de Mai stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer who has finished second in both starts this season, he looks sure to go well again for the powerful Mullins-Townend combination that knows its way around Limerick. The drop back in trip is the main unknown but his prominent run-style should suit the steadily-run shape of the race. Main dangers include Brickfield Belle, who has shown steady progress and won readily last time, and the lightly raced but course-placed Jury Time, while George's Order and Whelkeen View add further unknowns as lightly raced or debutant types.
KTB Selection Kimi de Mai
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Limerick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Limerick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Kimi de Mai the selection despite the trip query?
He has finished second in both starts this season, looks sure to go well again, and benefits from the 29% strike rate of Mullins and 26% record of Townend at Limerick.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The pace is likely to be steadily-run and tactical, with being handy expected to pay according to the supplied pace shape.
Which horses are unproven on yielding ground?
George's Order, Brickfield Belle, Jury Time, French Adventure, Naught But Nice, Silk Buds and Cerulean Summer are all unproven on yielding ground.
Who has the strongest course record among the principals?
Jury Time has placed in all three starts at Limerick, recording figures of 3rd, 2nd and 3rd.
What is the trainer and jockey combination for the top-rated horse?
W P Mullins trains Kimi de Mai with a 29% strike rate at Limerick, while Paul Townend rides with a 26% record at the track.
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