2:25 Redcar
This Class 3 handicap at Redcar over an extended mile on soft ground features a field of ten where the KTB numbers highlight a competitive but open-looking affair. Rajapour heads the Fit ratings on 70 while the next four principals are tightly bunched between 67 and 64, underlining how little separates the main players on current form and course records. With several course winners in the line-up and proven performers on the surface, the race looks a proper test of both class and adaptability to conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, promising a fair test. Master Richard is the one most likely to take them along from his draw while Naepoint, Khafiz and Simon Pierre are all prominent runners who should be handy early. That sets up a race in which the held-up brigade, including the selection Rajapour, Thunder Roar, Jez Bomb and Yafaarr, will be looking to pick up the pieces late, with the key question being whether the leaders can dictate a strong enough gallop to make it difficult for the closers on this soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rajapour KTB Selection70/100
Rajapour is a fair performer who has won twice from five runs at Redcar and holds an official rating of 83. He has won six times at today's trip from 34 starts and holds a solid record on soft ground with two wins and two places from four runs. The trainer's 15% strike rate at the track is above his general mark while the jockey's 20% strike rate here is also above his own average. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to a genuinely-run race in which the pace should collapse a little late on. His recent form of 517209 contains a win at this trip and the Redcar course record gives him a strong chance of adding to his tally here.
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2Naepoint67/100
Naepoint is a fair performer who has won both starts at Redcar and holds a solid record on soft ground with one win and two places from three runs. He has also won three times at today's trip from ten attempts and arrives in reasonable form having finished fourth last time. The yard's 17% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere while Orr's 18% at Redcar sits above his overall figure. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent in a race that is set to be run at a proper gallop. Dropping in class looks a positive and his course record makes him a major player from stall four.
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3Thunder Roar65/100
Thunder Roar is a fair performer who has won both starts at Redcar and holds a solid record on soft ground with four wins from 15 runs. He has also won at today's trip though his recent form of 008767 is modest and he now tries headgear for the first time. The yard's 16% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere while jockey David Nolan matches his 10% course strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking for the race to unfold in his favour off an official rating of 82. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition given the patchy recent efforts.
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4Jez Bomb65/100
Jez Bomb is a fair performer who has won once from five runs at Redcar and holds a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 21 starts. Recent form has been patchy and the sole soft-ground run brought no joy. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to develop favourably in what is set to be a genuinely-run affair. Stepping up in class adds to the task but his course record cannot be ignored.
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5Yafaarr64/100
Yafaarr is a modest performer who has won three times at this track from seven runs and also has three wins from eleven starts at today's trip. He drops back from 1m2f having been in decent recent form with two wins in the last four outings. Trainer and jockey both have records at Redcar that sit in line with their overall figures while the horse remains unproven on soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall one which could prove handy if he can get the right run. The step up in class is the main concern but his course record is a definite plus.
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6Khafiz59/100
Khafiz is a fair performer on an official rating of 84 but arrives in ordinary form having shown little in his last four starts. He has been competitive on soft ground without winning and is now fitted with headgear for the first time while trying this trip again. The trainer and jockey both have 13-14% strike rates at Redcar that sit in line with their records elsewhere. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be in the thick of it early but recent form is a worry.
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7Caim58/100
Caim is a fair performer who has shown mixed form since his promising debut win, finishing down the field in two stronger handicaps this season. He has won on soft ground and at today's trip, while the yard's 23% strike rate at Redcar is above their average elsewhere. First-time headgear is now applied from stall 12. Stepping up in class adds to the difficulty and his lack of course form is another negative.
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8Hale End52/100
Hale End is a fair performer who has been a regular in this grade and has won at today's trip. He has run four times at Redcar without winning or placing and is only 1 from 3 on soft ground though he has been competitive on it. Both trainer and jockey record 9% strike rates at the track which sit in line with their figures elsewhere. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has plenty to find on recent efforts.
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9Master Richard45/100
Master Richard is a fair handicapper who has run three times here without placing. He has won twice at today's trip from 16 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having been placed on his last three starts before two lesser efforts. The trainer's 6% strike rate at Redcar is below their record elsewhere while the jockey is 1-17 at the track and the horse is 0-1 on soft ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to set the tempo in a race that should be genuinely run.
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10Simon Pierre38/100
Simon Pierre is a modest performer who won a 7f maiden here on debut and has a second win at this trip from just two attempts. Has not built on that promise in two starts since and now steps back into a Class 3. Trainer records a 9% strike rate at Redcar from 58 runs while jockey is 1-31 at the track. Half-brother to Hopeful, a Group 3 winner (4 wins from 10 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 1 of them a winner. Usually races handily on or close to the lead and unproven on soft ground, he faces a stiff task.
KTB verdict
Rajapour stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with two wins from five runs at Redcar, six victories at this trip and a strong record on soft ground, he has the course, trip and ground credentials to land this. Usually held up, he is ideally suited to the expected genuinely-run pace shape and the trainer-jockey combination both perform above their averages at the track. His main dangers are Naepoint, who boasts a perfect two-from-two record at Redcar and solid soft-ground form, and Thunder Roar, who has won both starts here and now tries first-time headgear off a fair mark. Jez Bomb and Yafaarr add further depth but Rajapour looks to hold the key.
KTB Selection Rajapour
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:29am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Rajapour | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:25am |
| Naepoint | 4/1 | BoyleSports, 12:25am |
| Thunder Roar | 10/3 | BetTom, 12:25am |
| Jez Bomb | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Yafaarr | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Khafiz | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Caim | 3/1 | William Hill, 12:25am |
| Hale End | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Master Richard | 25/1 | BoyleSports, 12:25am |
| Simon Pierre | 30/1 | 7Bet, 12:25am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:25 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Redcar?
Naepoint has won both starts at Redcar while Rajapour has won twice from five runs and Yafaarr three times from seven.
How many horses are unproven on soft ground?
Yafaarr, Simon Pierre and Master Richard are unproven on soft ground while Jez Bomb has one run on the surface that brought no joy.
Who is most likely to make the running?
Master Richard tends to make the running or race on the pace and is likely to be the front-runner in a genuinely-run race.
Which trainers have above-average strike rates at Redcar in this race?
David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 786 runs which is above his general mark and Edward Bethell has a 23% strike rate from 108 runs which is above average.
How many runners are trying headgear for the first time?
Thunder Roar, Khafiz and Caim are all fitted with first-time headgear.
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