2:28 Ayr
This Class 4 handicap steeplechase at Ayr over 2m4f110y on good to soft ground serves as a qualifier for the Go North Monet's Garden Series and features a field of ten. KTB's Fit Scores identify a tight contest at the top, with Halftheworldaway and Cavalier du Luy separated by just a single point on 71 and 70 respectively, while the remainder of the field sits in the 43-60 range. The race asks significant questions of several runners regarding trip, ground or both, and the official ratings cluster between 98 and 116.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by multiple habitual front-runners including Halftheworldaway, Cavalier du Luy, My Kiwi Girl and Rock On Jet. This intensity is likely to test those setting or pressing the pace and could lead to a late collapse that plays into the hands of hold-up performers. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall to something coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Halftheworldaway KTB Selection71/100
Halftheworldaway arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 71 and carries an official rating of 114. This progressive 5-year-old has shown smart form, winning two of his last three starts after earlier placed efforts, and his recent figures of 43211- underline that upward curve. The combination of trainer Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, who hold a 19% strike rate at Ayr from 32 runs, and jockey Toby Wynne, who is operating at 33% from nine rides here, adds to the appeal. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he will be right up there in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. He steps up in trip today from his last run over 2m, which poses a fresh question, and he remains unproven on good to soft ground with no course form on record.
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2Cavalier du Luy70/100
Cavalier du Luy is rated just a point behind on the KTB Fit Score at 70 and holds an official rating of 112. This lightly-raced 5-year-old has shown smart form, winning on debut and finishing second in a stronger race last time, with figures of 1/215-. He has already placed twice at Ayr without winning and handles good to soft going with one win from one start. Half-brother to Francky Du Berlais, a Grade 3 winner, he comes from a dam that has had six other runners including two winners. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he will be prominent in what is likely to be a strongly-run affair. He steps up in trip today as he continues to progress.
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3My Kiwi Girl60/100
My Kiwi Girl is next on the KTB Fit ranking with a score of 60 and an official rating of 108. This 7-year-old has already won over the course in four visits and drops in class with only seven career runs behind her. Half-sister to Kellie's Dream who won twice from 26 starts, she comes from a dam that has had two other runners including one winner. Her recent efforts read 21/P5- and she returns from a break. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she will be to the fore in a race with a strong pace expected. The step up in trip is an unknown and the going remains unproven on such limited evidence, with one placed effort from two starts on good to soft.
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4Tommy Combats58/100
Tommy Combats carries a KTB Fit Score of 58 and an official rating of 108. This 7-year-old is a smart performer who has won once from eight runs at Ayr and arrives in solid recent form with a string of placed efforts, as his figures of 2U122- suggest. He drops in class and steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in five of seven starts. Only placed once from four runs on good to soft ground, he will settle in mid-division in a race where the strong pace could collapse late. Trainer Martin Todhunter and jockey Ryan Mania both operate at rates in line with their records elsewhere at this track.
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5Wolfburg58/100
Wolfburg also scores 58 on the KTB Fit scale and runs off an official rating of 116. This 7-year-old arrives in excellent order after winning three of his last four starts, with figures of 13211-. He drops back in trip today having won at this distance before, and his record on good to soft reads one win and two places from five starts. A prominent runner who usually races handily on or close to the lead, he will be well placed to take advantage if the strong pace does collapse. Trainer Sandy Thomson has had only two runners at Ayr so that remains an unknown, while jockey Craig Nichol operates at a 12% strike rate here which sits in line with his overall record.
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6One More Stroke56/100
One More Stroke has a KTB Fit Score of 56 and an official rating of 111. This smart performer arrives off a solid mark and has placed at today's trip, winning once and placing four times on good to soft from seven starts. A prominent runner, he will be handy in a strongly-run race, though the trainer and jockey both record modest strike rates at Ayr that sit in line with their figures elsewhere.
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7Moon Phases55/100
Moon Phases scores 55 on the KTB Fit and carries an official rating of 111. This smart performer has shown his liking for Ayr with a second and a fourth here and drops back to a trip he has won over from one attempt. Good to soft ground is in his favour with one win from two starts, and he will race prominently; the yard and jockey both operate at strike rates in line with their records at the track.
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8Great Pepper49/100
Great Pepper has a KTB Fit Score of 49 and an official rating of 115. This smart performer has shown strong ability on his day and has solid course connections with a placed effort from two runs at Ayr. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance, though the trainer's strike rate at the track is below their record elsewhere and the jockey remains winless from five rides at Ayr.
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9Rock On Jet45/100
Rock On Jet is rated 45 on the KTB Fit and runs off an official rating of 103. This useful performer has won once from five runs at Ayr and arrives off the back of some solid placed efforts. A front-runner who will be on the pace in a strongly-run race, he steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question, while the yard and rider record modest strike rates at the track.
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10Monochromix43/100
Monochromix has a KTB Fit Score of 43 and an official rating of 98. This useful performer has been placed on three of his six starts at Ayr without winning and drops back in trip today having last run over 3m. He is proven at this distance though he has never won on good to soft ground from six attempts, and he will be held up to produce his effort late.
KTB verdict
Halftheworldaway is the KTB Selection. His progressive profile, with two wins from his last three starts, allied to the positive trainer and jockey figures at Ayr, mark him out as the one to beat despite the step up in trip and the ground question. He will set the pace in a race that looks strongly run and may not come back to him. The main dangers are headed by Cavalier du Luy, who brings strong placed form at the track and a smart pedigree, while My Kiwi Girl's course win and the in-form pair Tommy Combats and Wolfburg cannot be dismissed.
KTB Selection Halftheworldaway
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:07am, 31 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Halftheworldaway | 3/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Cavalier du Luy | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| My Kiwi Girl | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Tommy Combats | 5/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Wolfburg | 10/3 | LiveScore Bet, 12:00am |
| One More Stroke | 9/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Moon Phases | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Great Pepper | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Rock On Jet | 25/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Monochromix | 12/1 | BoyleSports, 12:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:28 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ayr racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a last run over 2m?
Halftheworldaway.
Which runner is a half-brother to a Grade 3 winner?
Cavalier du Luy, half-brother to Francky Du Berlais.
How many times has My Kiwi Girl won at Ayr?
Once, from four visits.
Which horse drops back in trip having last run over 3m?
Monochromix.
Who has the highest strike rate at Ayr between the trainer and jockey combinations shown?
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero with Toby Wynne, where the jockey is at 33% from nine rides.
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