2:50 Worcester
This Class 4 division of the Richard And Ann Hitchings Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Worcester is a 2m qualifier for the Herring Queen Series run on good to soft ground. A field of nine includes several lightly raced types and debutants, with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 52 and 43. Our Peggy heads the numbers on 52 having already shown placed form at the trip, while the race features a strong pace shape that could suit those who race with restraint.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared the pace is expected to be strong and liable to collapse in the latter stages, favouring hold-up performers. Our Peggy and Rose of Knocknamoe both tend to make the running or race prominently, which sets up a potential early battle. Mouth Watering, No Airs Or Graces, Frost Moon and Poets Pearl are all likely to settle in midfield or further back, while Magnifix du Moulin is a confirmed hold-up type. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of something coming from off the pace late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Our Peggy KTB Selection52/100
Our Peggy arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 52 and an official rating of 105. A smart performer who has already shown placed form at this 2m trip on three starts, she drops in class here having contested stronger company. The yard posts a 10% strike rate at Worcester from 31 runs with an A/E of 0.61 while Brendan Powell operates at 9% from 251 rides at the track. She has been placed on two of three starts on good to soft, though the going remains something of an unknown overall. Lightly raced with only four career starts to date and recent form of 1642P-, she tends to make the running or race prominently and her proven ability at the trip gives her a solid platform in a race where the strong pace could create late opportunities.
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2Mouth Watering51/100
Mouth Watering is rated just a point behind on a KTB Fit Score of 51. She has shown only modest form in two starts over this trip, finishing sixth here on her most recent outing. The yard records a 7% strike rate at Worcester from 43 runs while James Bowen brings a stronger 23% record from 170 rides at the track. Stepping up in class today, she has no experience of good to soft ground and ran once here without placing. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse with very limited overall data, and her run-style sees her typically settle in midfield in a race that should provide a strong gallop.
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3No Airs Or Graces51/100
No Airs Or Graces is a debutant over hurdles with very little public form to go on and carries a KTB Fit Score of 51. The pedigree by Walk In The Park offers the main clue, a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 6931 runners, yet the assessment stays tentative given the low data confidence. Trainer Neil Mulholland has a solid 14% strike-rate at Worcester from a big sample of 526 runs while Harry Cobden is operating at 23% here from 177 rides. With no course form on record and the market showing SP in a field of nine, she represents an unknown quantity in a contest with a strong pace likely to test stamina late.
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4Rose of Knocknamoe50/100
Rose of Knocknamoe is next in the KTB Fit order on 50. Lightly raced with just two runs to her name and a modest 267- sequence that offers little to go on, she has been asked the same 2m trip both times without success. The small sample makes going suitability impossible to judge as she has no runs on good to soft. Trainer Fergal O'Brien has a solid 15% strike-rate here from 417 runs while Liam Harrison rides the track well at 22% from 102 rides. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see her locked in battle with Our Peggy early in a race where the strong pace may lead to late collapse.
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5Shadow Love45/100
Shadow Love is a newcomer for Dan Skelton, who has a solid 17% strike rate at Worcester from a big sample. A full-brother to smart hurdler Love Enja and bought for 50,000 euros as a three-year-old, he has no racecourse experience and the jockey operates below the yard's usual level here. With low data confidence any firm view would be guesswork.
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6Magnifix du Moulin45/100
Magnifix du Moulin is a lightly raced 4-year-old with modest form figures of 3-13 and drops back to 2m having been placed without winning at the trip last time. The trainer's 9% strike rate at Worcester from 23 runs is modest while Gavin Sheehan has a solid 18% record here from 260 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, which could be an advantage given the strong pace shape, though he remains unproven on good to soft.
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7Boombox44/100
Boombox has shown steady placed form in recent starts including a second on return this season but the small overall sample makes it hard to be certain about his level. He drops back in trip to 2m today which asks a fresh question. Trainer Harry Derham has a 13 percent strike rate from eight runs at Worcester while Paul O'Brien holds a 14 percent strike rate from 66 rides here. He remains unproven on good to soft.
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8Frost Moon44/100
Frost Moon won a bumper on debut but has been well held in both subsequent starts over hurdles and steps up in class. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Worcester, with the trainer on 17% from 430 runs and Harry Skelton at 20% from 405 rides. With only three runs on the clock and one run on good to soft that brought no win or place, this remains a very lightly-raced profile that needs to improve markedly.
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9Poets Pearl43/100
Poets Pearl has shown only modest form in two starts over this trip, finishing fifth on both occasions. The yard has a modest 13% strike-rate at Worcester from a small sample while the jockey operates at a fair 11% from far more rides here. She typically settles in midfield and has one run on good to soft that brought no win or place, leaving her hard to assess with any confidence given so few runs in the book.
KTB verdict
Our Peggy stands out as the KTB Selection. She has already shown smart form with placed efforts at this trip on three starts and drops in class while remaining relatively lightly raced. Her prominent run-style fits the shape of a race that is likely to be strongly run and could fall apart late. The main dangers are the two debutants and lightly raced types, particularly No Airs Or Graces who brings an interesting pedigree and the services of Harry Cobden, while Mouth Watering and Rose of Knocknamoe cannot be entirely dismissed on their respective merits.
KTB Selection Our Peggy
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:11 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Our Peggy | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Mouth Watering | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| No Airs Or Graces | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Rose of Knocknamoe | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Shadow Love | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Magnifix du Moulin | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Boombox | 2/1 | William Hill |
| Frost Moon | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Poets Pearl | 150/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:50 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at the 2m trip?
Our Peggy has already shown placed form at this trip on three starts.
How does the strong pace shape influence the race?
The strong pace is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which trainer has the strongest Worcester strike rate among those with big-sample data?
Dan Skelton has a 17% strike rate at Worcester from 430 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Worcester in this field?
James Bowen and Harry Cobden both have a 23% strike rate at Worcester.
What is the combined KTB Fit Score range across the entire field?
The KTB Fit Scores range from 52 for Our Peggy down to 43 for Poets Pearl.
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