3:00 Roscommon
This 7f111y handicap division at Roscommon on soft ground features a field of 14 limited performers, most of whom have shown modest recent form and are operating in a competitive but ungraded contest. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with La Tulipe Noire heading the numbers on 71, followed by a cluster from 58 down to 55 for the next four principals. With no standout class in the race and several course winners or placed horses involved, the outcome is likely to hinge on which of these modest types can rediscover a spark under the prevailing conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner and the majority of the field are held-up types. Big Bill is the only prominent runner among the principals and could take up a handy position from stall one, while the likes of Brains may also race close to the pace. Most others, including the selection La Tulipe Noire, tend to be held up and produce their effort late, which should suit a race where those ridden close to the pace are favoured. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate enough to see off the late challengers in a tactical affair on soft ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1La Tulipe Noire KTB Selection71/100
La Tulipe Noire is a limited class performer with an official rating of 58. She has won once from three starts at this track and holds a solid record on soft ground, with one win and a placing from four runs. Dropping back to 7½f should suit as she has three wins from 21 starts at the trip, though her recent form of 095870 is modest. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 21 runs with an A/E of 1.91, while the jockey has a 20% strike rate at the course from five rides with an A/E of 2.83. Usually held up and producing her effort late from draw 10, she represents the KTB Selection in a race that could play to her strengths.
-
2Cosmic Funk58/100
Cosmic Funk is a limited performer rated 59 who has been consistent enough without winning in 12 starts. He drops back from 1m1½f to a trip where he has placed once, though he was only fourth of six when he tried this track on his sole previous visit. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Roscommon from 33 runs with an A/E of 1.23, and the jockey has a 15% strike rate from 139 rides with an A/E of 1.06. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 5, he has looked modest on soft ground with one run yielding no win or place.
-
3Zabriskie Point57/100
Zabriskie Point is a limited performer rated 56 who has been consistent enough to place on both previous visits to Roscommon without winning. He drops back from a mile to a trip where he has already won once, which looks a sensible move, though his recent form of 525753 has been patchy. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Roscommon from 146 runs with an A/E of 1.03, while the jockey is operating above expectations with a 12% record from 49 rides with an A/E of 1.28. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 6, he has a win and a placing from six runs on soft ground.
-
4Cisterna56/100
Cisterna is a limited performer rated 58 who has won once from two starts at this track. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance in the past, though his recent form of 558020 is patchy and he has only placed once from three runs on soft ground without winning. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 162 runs with an A/E of 1.24, while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from seven rides at the course. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a favourable draw of 2, he brings course-winning form to the table.
-
5Big Bill55/100
Big Bill is a limited horse rated 59 who has shown mixed form this year. Dropping back to 7½f looks a sensible move as he has already won at the trip from five attempts. The jockey has a 10% strike rate at Roscommon from ten rides with an A/E of 1.35, while the trainer's small sample at the course from three runs prevents any firm read. Usually races handily on or close to the lead from draw 1, he has shown little on soft ground in one previous attempt and has no course form on record.
-
6Mogwli53/100
Mogwli is a limited performer rated 38 who has been out of form for some time and finished only eighth of 14 last time. He drops back to a trip he has won at before though his recent efforts at around a mile raise doubts about whether this is the right move, while the trainer and jockey both have solid records at Roscommon.
-
7Navagio49/100
Navagio is a limited performer rated 58 who has been out of form for most of this year and showed little spark when sixth of 15 over this course and distance on his only visit to Roscommon. He drops back from a mile today having won twice at this trip earlier in his career, and he has handled soft ground in the past with two wins from 13 starts, though the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative.
-
8Brains48/100
Brains is a limited 10-year-old rated 55 who has been around a long time and is now on his 51st career start. He has won over this trip in the past and holds a solid record on soft ground plus a course win here from four runs, though the yard's modest record at Roscommon is a negative.
-
9Unfamiliar47/100
Unfamiliar is a limited performer rated 51 who has been out of form for some time with four poor runs since his last win. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance before though his three efforts on soft ground have produced no win or place, while the trainer has no recorded runners at Roscommon.
-
10Manhattan Dandy40/100
Manhattan Dandy is a limited performer rated 39 who has been on the go a long time and looks vulnerable from stall 12. He has won over this trip in the past and has placed three times on soft ground, but he has been out of the frame on his last four starts and is now dropping back from a mile.
-
11Movin And Groovin40/100
Movin And Groovin is a limited performer rated 45 who has mixed form this year and ran to a modest level when third last time. He steps up in trip having won once over today's distance from nine attempts, though he has shown little on soft ground in one previous try, while the trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
-
12Little Miss P40/100
Little Miss P is a limited filly rated 52 who has been well beaten on all 12 starts and showed little spark last time. She has no experience on soft ground and was well held when she tried this track as a 3-year-old, while the drop back to 7½f is at least a trip she has placed at before though the wide draw adds another negative.
-
13Draiocht38/100
Draiocht is a limited performer rated 40 who has been largely out of form this year and finished 15th on his only previous visit to Roscommon. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at before, though he is 1-19 at the distance overall, while the trainer and jockey both operate at an 8% strike rate here.
-
14Courtlough Gula36/100
Courtlough Gula is a limited performer rated 48 who has finished last on all three starts this year and showed little at 1m4f last time. He drops back to 7½f where he has been beaten in three previous attempts, while the trainer and jockey both operate at a modest strike-rate here.
KTB verdict
La Tulipe Noire stands out as the KTB Selection on a Fit score of 71 in a race full of limited performers. She has already won at the track, boasts a solid record on soft ground and is dropping to a trip that has brought her three wins from 21 starts, with both trainer and jockey showing positive figures at Roscommon. Her held-up run style should be suited by the muddling, tactical pace shape that favours those ridden close to the pace. The main dangers are likely to come from the next four in the Fit rankings: Cosmic Funk, who is consistent if modest, Zabriskie Point with his placed course form, the course-winning Cisterna, and Big Bill who could make the running from a low draw.
KTB Selection La Tulipe Noire
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Roscommon racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
La Tulipe Noire has won once from three starts at Roscommon, while Cisterna has won once from two starts here and Zabriskie Point has placed on both visits.
How does the race's pace shape influence the principals' run styles?
The muddling, tactical pace with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace, which benefits Big Bill as the only prominent runner among the principals while the other four held-up types may need to time their efforts late.
What are the soft-ground records of the top two in the KTB Fit rankings?
La Tulipe Noire has one win and a placing from four runs on soft, while Cosmic Funk has one run on soft with no win or place.
Which trainers hold the best strike rates at Roscommon in this field?
Aengus King has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 1.91, W. McCreery also has 14% with an A/E of 1.21, and A. Slattery has 12% with an A/E of 1.24.
Why is the drop in trip relevant for several runners?
La Tulipe Noire, Zabriskie Point, Navagio, Manhattan Dandy, Draiocht and Courtlough Gula are all dropping back from a mile, with varying degrees of prior success at 7½f.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies