Skip to content
Trainer profile

Aidan Melia

108 runners in the last 5 seasons · 30 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2022
12–108
Wins / Runs
11.1%
Strike rate
n=108
27 (25%)
Placed
1.60
Fair A/E
n=108 · 1.24 incl. margin
+15.75
£1 level stake
n=108 at SP · +14.6%
£142k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.60). With a claiming rider up the record reads 20% (45 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 108 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 20%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 20% (n=45, Fair A/E 2.06). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 7.9% over 38 runners, 3.2pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Timurshah (IRE) — 5 wins from 5 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.1%−4.0
n=28 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+1.4
n=24 · A/E 2.47 · £1 +41.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
33.3%+22.2
n=6 · A/E 3.89 · £1 +6.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −3.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
20%+8.9
n=45 · A/E 2.06 · £1 +38.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up 20% vs 11.1% · n=45
In Flat races 8.4% vs 11.1% · n=83
On Soft going 7.9% vs 11.1% · n=38
With a new jockey booking 10.4% vs 11.1% · n=67 · A/E 1.76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 83 7 8.4% −9.00
Hurdle 19 5 26.3% +30.75
NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 38 3 7.9% +14.00
Good 26 7 26.9% +33.75
Standard (AW) 18 0 0% −18.00
Heavy 15 2 13.3% −3.00
Good to Soft 9 0 0% −9.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 18 0 0% −18.00
Curragh 12 1 8.3% +17.00
Gowran Park 11 0 0% −11.00
Navan 8 2 25% +2.00
Leopardstown 7 1 14.3% +1.00
Cork 7 0 0% −7.00
Roscommon 4 0 0% −4.00
Galway 4 2 50% +13.50
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Naas 4 0 0% −4.00
Bellewstown 4 2 50% +16.00
Kilbeggan 3 0 0% −3.00
Punchestown 3 0 0% −3.00
Listowel 3 1 33.3% +4.00
Down Royal 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 11 2 18.2% 1.00 −4.25
2nd–3rd fav 14 4 28.6% 2.03 +10.00
4th–6th fav 24 2 8.3% 1.04 −9.00
7th+ in betting 59 4 6.8% 2.50 +19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Unauthorized (IRE)from Alice Haynes 11 2 3 18 Oct 26
Hieloray (IRE)from Peter Niven 9 0 1 20 Oct 25
Big Bill (FR) 8 1 2 12 Oct 26
Isabella Johnson (IRE) 8 0 4 12 Jun 26
Satono Chevalier (IRE)from Richard John O'Brien · then M K Flannery 6 1 4 30 Mar 26
Eyetrap (GB)from R P Burns 5 0 0 28 Sep 26
Timurshah (IRE)from Philip M Byrne 5 5 5 2 Sep 26
Purring Along (IRE)from Thomas Dowling · then P G Fahey 5 1 1 6 Dec 24
Wolf Prince (IRE)from Fergal O'Brien 4 1 1 21 Jul 26
Bottler'secret (IRE)from Gavin Cromwell · then Ciaran Murphy 4 0 1 2 Nov 25
Man Of Destiny (IRE) 4 0 0 1 Jul 25
Dark Voyager (IRE)from Anthony McCann 4 0 0 26 Oct 24
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 24 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (3) and Gavin Cromwell (3); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Ciaran Murphy (2) and M K Flannery (2); 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
003301029182071500
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Rory Cleary 28 1 3.6% −20.00
Reese Holohan 15 3 20% +4.00
Conor Smithers 8 5 62.5% +41.75
Nicola Burns 7 1 14.3% +8.00
Kevin Sexton 5 0 0% −5.00
Nathan Crosse 5 0 0% −5.00
Dylan Browne McMonagle 4 0 0% −4.00
Mr J L Gleeson 4 0 0% −4.00
Leigh Roche 3 0 0% −3.00
Danny Gilligan 3 0 0% −3.00
Julian Pietropaolo 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr T A Halford 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
12
Archived wins
£142k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 9 wins
Unauthorized (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden Leopardstown · Oct 2025
£11,800
Purring Along (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-65) Curragh · Oct 2024
£11,800
Timurshah (IRE) — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle Galway (IRE) · Aug 2026
£10,500
Notable horses
Timurshah (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE) Big Bill (FR) Satono Chevalier (IRE) Purring Along (IRE) Wolf Prince (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,145 runs since 2008 (659 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,187.
Phoenix Of Spain (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,323 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.8% from 133.
Rajj (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 6.9% of 461 runs since 2008 (46 horses).
Wooded (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 7.1% of 496 runs since 2008 (112 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,816 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 100% · 5–5
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,628 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 108 · newest first

The latest 50 of 108 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 July 2024 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 6th 13/2
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Conor Cusack Nord Anglia International School Dublin Foxrock Cup Handicap8.5f · Good · 16 ran 12th 22/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan DNG Nationwide Handicap6f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 18/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Reese Holohan Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div II)7.5f · Soft · 13 ran 2nd 7/2F
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Naas Farm Machinery Handicap5f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 13/2
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Covert Legend (GB)J: Reese Holohan BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 7th 15/2
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Reese Holohan BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 9/2C
05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Reese Holohan Killarney Student Raceday Handicap8f · Soft · 15 ran 6th 4/1F
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 22/1
01 Oct 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Reese Holohan Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 1st 4/1
30 Sep 26 Bellewstown (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Reese Holohan BOYLE Sports Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 2nd 9/1
28 Sep 26 Down Royal (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Patrick McGettigan Pravha Handicap (Div II)11f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 5th 18/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Eyetrap (GB)J: Conor Smithers Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle15.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran F 6/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Kwiff More Bang For Your Bet Rated Race7f · Yielding · 9 ran 2nd 14/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Cerberus (GB)J: Conor Smithers Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 10th 15/2
21 Sep 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Covert Legend (GB)J: Jamie Powell La Bucca Restaurant Handicap7f · Good · 18 ran 14th 25/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Timurshah (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Kilberry (Q.R.) Handicap16f · Good · 16 ran 1st 2/1F
02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Timurshah (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 17 ran 1st 7/2
27 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Timurshah (IRE)J: Conor Smithers EASYFIX Iggy Daly Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 20 ran 1st 12/1
22 Jul 26 Naas (IRE) Slaney Swagger (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett O'Neill & Co. Apprentice Handicap8f · Good · 18 ran 16th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Aidan Melia's strike rate?
Aidan Melia has won 12 of 108 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Aidan Melia in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Aidan Melia's Fair A/E?
1.60, from 108 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).