3:22 Naas
This 0-65 nursery handicap over the minimum trip at Naas features a field of 14 two-year-olds on good to yielding ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the leading pair both rated at 52, reflecting a race where most participants remain modestly rated and largely unproven at this distance or under these conditions. With no standout performer on figures and several runners dropping back in trip, the outcome is likely to hinge on how the pace unfolds and which horse can best handle the sharp five furlongs.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in on this straight track. My Irish Lady is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed an easy time on the front end from draw eight. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who will be producing their efforts late, raising the key question of whether any will be able to close the gap if the leader gets first run and the race develops into a test of speed from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Invincible Irish52/100
Invincible Irish is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts over this trip so far. Stall one could be an advantage on a sharp track but the yard's 10% strike rate from 21 runs at Naas is only fair. Ben Coen takes the ride with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 10/88 (11%) record and A/E 1.04. The colt remains unproven on good to yielding ground having had no previous runs on the surface and has no course form on record.
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2New Mexico KTB Selection52/100
New Mexico is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date. He has run twice at this trip without success and the latest effort was particularly weak. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 21 runs at Naas while jockey Donagh O'Connor brings a 9% strike rate at the track from 120 rides. The horse is unproven on good to yielding ground and has no course form on record. As the KTB selection he is taken to capitalise on the uncontested lead scenario and his ability to produce a late effort from a midfield draw.
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3Annie Batt48/100
Annie Batt is a modest performer who has shown some ability in two starts at this trip, finishing second on both occasions. The yard's modest record at Naas continues a theme of limited success here with a 6% strike rate from 286 runs. Jimmy Dalton claims 7lb with the trainer and jockey showing a 6/108 (6%) record and A/E 0.61. Lightly raced with only three runs total so the full picture is still emerging and the filly remains unproven on good to yielding ground with no course form on record.
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4Ballymackney44/100
Ballymackney has shown only limited ability in four starts and looks up against it from a modest recent form line of 7908. Dropping back to 5f is a fresh question after his last run over 7f and he has failed to place in two previous attempts at the distance. The Noel Meade yard posts a solid 13% strike rate at Naas from a big sample of 1184 runs while Reese Holohan is aboard with an 11% strike rate at the track from nine rides. The colt is unproven on good to yielding ground and has no course form on record.
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5Little Diva44/100
Little Diva is a limited filly who has shown very little in four starts and looks up against it from a wide draw in stall 13. Dropping back to 5f is at least a new question but she has already tried the trip without success. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Naas from 279 runs adds no encouragement while Sadhbh Tormey claims 7lb with the combination showing a 4/106 (4%) record and A/E 0.49. She remains unproven on good to yielding ground and has no course form on record.
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6Summer Sent You42/100
Summer Sent You is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts so far and was well held when third over 7f at this track last time. Dropping back to an untried 5f poses a fresh question while the yard's 9% strike rate from 234 runs at Naas offers no particular encouragement.
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7Lily Bear42/100
Lily Bear is a limited performer who has shown little in three starts to date and was well beaten when last seen over 6f. She drops back to an untried 5f today which poses a fresh question while the trainer's modest record at Naas offers no encouragement. Colin Keane is a notable booking.
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8The Drambling Man40/100
The Drambling Man is a modest performer who has struggled in five starts to date and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back to 5f having failed to land a blow at that trip on three previous attempts while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 63 runs at Naas.
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9My Irish Lady39/100
My Irish Lady has shown very little in three runs at this trip, finishing no closer than sixth. She was beaten a long way on her only visit to Naas and remains a limited performer on the evidence so far. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 434 runs at the track.
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10Santo Parvenue38/100
Santo Parvenue is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in three runs at this trip. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard has a fair record at Naas while both trip and ground remain unproven in any meaningful sense.
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11Stellar Path37/100
Stellar Path is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date. He has failed to land a blow in three runs at this trip and the yard's modest record at Naas offers no encouragement while stall 10 looks an additional negative on a straight track.
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12Siege Of Tyre37/100
Siege Of Tyre is a limited sort who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing last on each occasion. Dropping back from 7f to an untried 5f poses a fresh question while the trainer's modest record at Naas offers no particular encouragement.
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13Docks37/100
Docks is a limited performer on the evidence of three runs to date and looks up against it from a wide draw in stall 14. The trainer at Naas has a modest 5% strike rate from 130 runs while the trip is a new question as he drops back from 6f.
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14Amigos Legacy35/100
Amigos Legacy is a limited performer who has finished well down the field in all three starts to date. Dropping back from 7f to 5f raises a fresh question while the yard's modest record at Naas offers little encouragement.
KTB verdict
New Mexico is the KTB selection in a race where the majority of runners are modest and unproven in key areas. The selection has shown little in three starts but is drawn to produce a late effort in a race where the pace shape favours a lone leader and those coming from off the pace. His trainer's record at the track is modest yet the combination of run-style and the uncontested lead scenario gives him the best chance to close effectively. The main dangers are Annie Batt, who has shown some ability over the trip with two seconds to her name, and Ballymackney who represents a yard with a solid Naas record despite limited personal form.
KTB Selection New Mexico
This is the narrative read of the 3:22 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
My Irish Lady is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed an easy time on the front end.
How many principals are unproven on good to yielding ground?
All five principals have had no runs on good to yielding and remain unproven on the surface.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Naas for the yard of the KTB selection?
The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Naas from 21 runs.
Which horse has the highest strike rate at Naas among the trainers of the top five principals?
Noel Meade has a 13% strike rate at Naas from 1184 runs for Ballymackney.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The lone leader with little to pressure it suggests an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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