4:21 Thirsk
This Class 5 handicap over 7f at Thirsk on good ground brings together ten three-year-olds, most of them modest performers seeking to capitalise on an uncontested lead. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with a clear top weight in Mo Anam Chara, who edges the numbers on the back of recent spark, while the remainder are largely in and out or struggling for consistency. With a lone-leader pace shape rated as highly likely, the ability to position effectively and close in the straight will be key on a track where front-runners can prove hard to reel in.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will bowl along in front with little pressure from behind in the early stages. Most of the field, including the selection Mo Anam Chara, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, which sets up a race where the leader could get first run and potentially prove difficult to peg back. The key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing kick on good ground to overcome the uncontested lead, or if the pace will collapse in the straight and play into the hands of those racing prominently.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Mo Anam Chara KTB Selection64/100
Mo Anam Chara is a modest performer who has shown some spark this year with a win and a second from his last three starts. He has already won at this trip and is drawn in a workable stall from which his usual held-up run-style can be deployed to best effect. The trainer has a solid 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 133 runs while the jockey boasts a 23% strike rate at the track from 13 rides with an A/E of 1.54. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and, although he has no course form on record, the combination of recent progress and a workable draw makes him the one to beat. As the KTB Selection he holds the strongest Fit rating at 64.
-
2Napolian56/100
Napolian is a modest performer who has been placed once in two runs at Thirsk but is yet to win on good ground from four attempts. Dropping back to 7f today raises a fresh question after his latest run over a mile, and his held-up run-style means he will need the leader to come back to him. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Thirsk from 713 runs while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track from seven rides. He has course form of eighth and third, showing he can act around here, yet the lack of success on good ground remains a concern. His KTB Fit of 56 places him second in the ratings.
-
3Derrygarran Lad54/100
Derrygarran Lad is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form over this trip on two of his four starts. He was well held on his only visit to Thirsk though and that run leaves him with something to prove at the track, especially as he drops in class. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 268 runs while the jockey has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 63 rides. With only one run on good ground and no win or place, his held-up style will again leave him needing the race to fall right. He holds a KTB Fit of 54.
-
4Hatamoto49/100
Hatamoto is a modest performer who has won two of three starts here including a recent success and has course form of two wins from three runs. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be ideal given the lone-leader shape, although his record at this trip is only modest with one placing from three runs. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 2171 runs adds a note of caution, despite the jockey's 10% strike rate at the track from 1120 rides. He has one win from six on good ground with two placed efforts and steps up in class. His KTB Fit stands at 49.
-
5Riffa Spirit47/100
Riffa Spirit is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of mid-pack finishes. He has already tried this trip without success and steps back up from 5f today while showing no win or place from three runs on good ground. The trainer strikes at 9% here from 455 runs and the jockey has an 11% strike rate at Thirsk from 70 rides, but the horse has already run once at the track without placing. His held-up run-style is likely to see him again chasing the leaders from some way back. He is rated 47 on KTB Fit.
-
6Soca Star47/100
Soca Star is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing second three times from his last five starts without adding to a sole win. He handles good ground with two placed efforts from five runs and has shown he can be competitive at this trip, though he remains winless in 13 runs overall. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Thirsk from 46 runs offers little encouragement on what is the horse's first run here, despite his held-up style.
-
7Kody B45/100
Kody B is a modest performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and now steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time. He has shown some ability on good ground with a placed effort from six runs but remains winless, and the trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 40 runs at Thirsk. His held-up run-style is well established and he drops in class here.
-
8Thornaby Annie44/100
Thornaby Annie is a modest performer who has been in and out this season and now drops back to 7f having last run over a mile. She has placed every time she has tried today's trip yet remains winless at the distance, and the trainer's modest record at Thirsk from 109 runs adds little confidence on her first run here. Her held-up style fits the shape of the race.
-
9Showtown40/100
Showtown is a modest performer who has been well held in his last four starts and arrives here with a fair bit of work to do from stall 8. He has shown some ability at this track, finishing fifth on his second visit, and has placed once from three runs on good ground. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Thirsk from 992 runs while the jockey rides with a 7% strike rate at the venue.
-
10Real Jack34/100
Real Jack is a limited horse who has been on the go for some time without winning. He has shown little at this track in two runs and has failed to place in four starts on good ground, with first-time headgear now fitted as he tries this trip again where he has managed one placing from three attempts. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 1156 runs.
KTB verdict
Mo Anam Chara stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit rating and recent evidence of spark that sets him apart from a modest field. His win at the trip, workable draw and the trainer-jockey combination at Thirsk give him every chance to dictate matters from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. The main dangers are likely to come from Napolian, who has shown ability around the track, and Hatamoto, whose front-running style could see him take full advantage of the lone-leader shape if the closers fail to fire.
KTB Selection Mo Anam Chara
This is the narrative read of the 4:21 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Thirsk results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit rating?
Mo Anam Chara is the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 64.
What is the expected pace shape for this race?
Lone leader with high confidence — one clear front-runner with little to pressure it, likely an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
How many wins has Hatamoto recorded at Thirsk?
Two wins from three starts at Thirsk.
Has any horse in the field won over this exact 7f trip on good ground?
Mo Anam Chara has already won at this trip although his good-ground record is placed once from one run; no other horse is noted with a win over 7f on good.
What is the trainer strike rate at Thirsk for the yard of the selection?
Geoffrey Harker has an 8% strike rate at Thirsk from 133 runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies