4:45 Kempton (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over a mile at Kempton on standard to slow ground forms the first division of this London Mile Series qualifier. The ten three-year-olds on show make up a fairly modest field where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end, with Girls Allowed heading the numbers on 60. Several runners arrive with recent placed efforts or handicapping scope, though many remain unproven on the surface and the muddling pace shape adds an extra layer of tactical importance.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner declared the pace is expected to be muddling and tactical. Those who can race prominently or handy should hold an advantage, while hold-up types will need the race to fall right. The key question is which of the prominent runners can seize the initiative early and dictate terms in a race that may not be truly run.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Girls Allowed KTB Selection60/100
Girls Allowed tops the KTB Fit ratings and is taken to land this race. The three-year-old filly showed her best form when winning here over course and distance last time, taking her record at the track to one win from two starts. She usually races prominently and should be able to take a good early position in a race lacking an obvious leader. The trainer's modest nine per cent strike rate at Kempton is noted, as is the jockey's six per cent record there, yet the recent winning form and proven ability on the surface make her the one to beat from draw four.
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2Upsomdowns49/100
Upsomdowns is the second highest rated on KTB Fit and has shown enough to remain competitive. This three-year-old has placed once from three starts on standard to slow ground and has posted two fourth-place finishes from five runs at Kempton, suggesting the track and trip are within his compass. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical affair. The trainer's seven per cent strike rate at the venue and the jockey's six per cent record are both modest, yet his ability to produce a late effort keeps him firmly in the mix.
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3Wild Rosie48/100
Wild Rosie is rated just behind the top two on KTB Fit and has the benefit of a high-confidence prominent run-style. The three-year-old filly has been consistent without winning of late, with her best recent effort a fourth-place finish. She has run just once at Kempton, finishing fourth, and remains unproven on standard to slow ground. The trainer boasts an eleven per cent strike rate at the track while the jockey matches that figure, offering some encouragement, though the lack of experience on the surface remains a question mark from stall ten.
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4Gatlinburg42/100
Gatlinburg is a first-time headgear wearer who brings a strong family line, being a half-brother to Listed winner Mountain Bear with the dam having produced six winners from six runners. This three-year-old usually races prominently and should be on the speed early from draw one. He is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no previous course form, while the trainer's five per cent strike rate at Kempton is modest. Still, the pedigree and the application of headgear for the first time could spark improvement in a race that may suit his run-style.
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5Blue Hill40/100
Blue Hill steps down in class and is another who could be suited by the anticipated pace shape. The three-year-old has shown steady rather than spectacular form, with a fourth-place finish on his sole previous visit to Kempton. He typically settles in midfield and will be looking to make steady headway. The trainer's seven per cent strike rate at the venue is fair in the context of a small sample, though the jockey is yet to score from fourteen rides at Kempton. The drop in grade offers hope, despite being unproven on the surface.
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6Dora Vita37/100
Dora Vita is held up in her races and has shown modest form of late. The three-year-old has one run on standard to slow ground without placing and finished twelfth on her only previous start at Kempton.
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7Far Far Out36/100
Far Far Out drops in class and usually races in midfield. The three-year-old is unproven on standard to slow ground and has shown little on his sole previous visit to Kempton, finishing eleventh.
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8Malakai Kite36/100
Malakai Kite is usually held up and has no course form on record. The three-year-old remains unproven on standard to slow ground and the trainer has yet to record a winner from a single run at Kempton.
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9Karmacy35/100
Karmacy is a half-sister to Group 3 winner Karmology with the dam having produced two winners from two runners. The three-year-old usually races prominently but has shown little of note on her one previous visit to Kempton, finishing eighth.
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10Seapearl33/100
Seapearl drops in class and is fitted with first-time headgear. The three-year-old usually races in midfield, has one run on standard to slow ground without placing and finished ninth on his only previous start at Kempton.
KTB verdict
Girls Allowed stands out as the KTB Selection. She brings a recent course-and-distance win to the table, has already shown she handles the surface, and her prominent run-style looks ideal in a muddling, tactical contest. The daughter of the Birkett stable should be able to secure a good early position and prove hard to pass. Main dangers are Upsomdowns, who has shown enough at the track to suggest he can go well from off the pace, and Wild Rosie, whose prominent racing style and trainer-jockey combination at Kempton offer hope despite the ground question.
KTB Selection Girls Allowed
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:27am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Girls Allowed | 6/5 | BetMGM, 12:16am |
| Upsomdowns | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Wild Rosie | 15/2 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Gatlinburg | 16/1 | 7Bet, 12:16am |
| Blue Hill | 9/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Dora Vita | 33/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Far Far Out | 16/1 | 7Bet, 12:16am |
| Malakai Kite | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Karmacy | 33/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Seapearl | 6/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over this course and distance?
Girls Allowed, who won here last time out to take her course record to one win from two starts.
Who is the only horse in the field with a Listed-winning sibling according to KTB's family lines?
Gatlinburg, half-brother to Mountain Bear, a Listed winner.
Which runner has the strongest pedigree on KTB's family archive?
Karmacy, half-sister to Group 3 winner Karmology with the dam having produced two winners from two runners.
How many of these runners are unproven on standard to slow ground?
Six runners have no previous experience of standard to slow going: Wild Rosie, Gatlinburg, Blue Hill, Far Far Out, Malakai Kite and the lightly-raced profile of others with limited data.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Kempton according to the supplied reads?
Oisin Murphy with an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 1466 rides.
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