4:45 Ripon
This Class 6 classified stakes division at Ripon over 1m1f170y on good ground features a field of ten limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 54 and 32. The race lacks depth and looks an opportunity for one of the more consistent types to capitalise on an uncontested lead, with several runners stepping up in trip for the first time. Overall the KTB numbers point to a race that will be decided by which horse handles the extra distance best while the yard and jockey records at the track add further layers to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning Inspiring Speeches is expected to bowl along in front with little to challenge early. Most of the field, including the top four in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who will be produced late. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove hard for the closers to peg back over this distance, particularly with several runners tackling the trip for the first time.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Trucial Pearl KTB Selection54/100
Trucial Pearl is a limited performer who has shown enough to win a race here over shorter and has placed on good ground. Steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Ripon from 95 runs while Joanna Mason has no recorded rides here. Usually held up and produces its effort late, the three-year-old will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. Recent form of 653144 includes that course success and the colt looks to have more scope than many of these.
-
2Copper And Five53/100
Copper And Five is a limited performer who has been knocking on the door this season with four seconds from his last six starts. He has won once from eight runs at Ripon and the trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate here from a large sample. Stepping up in trip for the first time in a while asks a fresh question and his record on good ground is only modest with two wins from 18 attempts. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the ten-year-old will need to show he stays this distance if he is to capitalise on his recent consistency.
-
3Volenti52/100
Volenti is a limited performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with a string of minor placings. He has run well here in the past without winning, including a second, and acts on good ground though he is now stepping up in trip for the first time in a while. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Ripon from 42 runs and Oisin Orr knows the track well with a 17% strike rate. Usually held up, he will be another trying to come from off the pace in a race where the leader could be difficult to catch.
-
4Little Ted50/100
Little Ted is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place in two of his last three starts without winning. He has course form here plus a win at today's trip, though his overall record shows only modest strike rates on good ground with two wins from 16 and in this grade. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard's record at Ripon remains below average with a 10% strike rate. Usually held up, the nine-year-old will need the new headgear to spark improvement if he is to overcome the modest yard record at the track.
-
5Inspiring Speeches50/100
Inspiring Speeches is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place in two of his last four starts without threatening the winner. He has won on good ground and at today's trip, though his record on good is otherwise modest with just one success from 13 attempts. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Ripon while this is the horse's first run here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one expected to set the tempo in a race with a lone leader shape and that could prove a significant advantage.
-
6Rogers Dream47/100
Rogers Dream is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year and ran no better than seventh when trying this track once before. Has placed at today's trip but that was his only effort at it and he has failed to win or place in three runs on good ground. The trainer has no previous runners at Ripon.
-
7Due To Shine41/100
Due To Shine is a limited performer who has shown little spark in three starts this season after a couple of placed efforts as a juvenile. Has failed to place in three runs at this trip and is 0-2 on good ground so far. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Ripon adds no encouragement.
-
8Princess Coco39/100
Princess Coco is a limited filly who has shown very little in eight starts and was beaten a long way on her only previous visit to this track. She has failed to place on either start on good ground and looks no better suited by this trip. The yard's modest record here adds little encouragement.
-
9Top Gun Tina34/100
Top Gun Tina is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and looks vulnerable in this field. She has run just once over today's trip without success and steps up in distance from 1m, while her record on good ground is also poor with no win or place from seven starts. The yard's 3% strike rate at Ripon adds to the negatives.
-
10Twin And Tonic32/100
Twin And Tonic is a limited horse who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing ninth of ten on debut and then failing to build on that in two runs at this trip. The yard has a modest 10% strike-rate at Ripon from a big sample of runners. Trip and ground both remain questions at this stage.
KTB verdict
Trucial Pearl is the KTB Selection. A limited sort who has already shown he can win at this track over shorter and has placed on good ground, he steps up in trip for the first time but looks to have more upside than most in a modest event. The Easterby yard's record at Ripon and Joanna Mason's lack of previous rides here are minor concerns, yet the colt's course-and-distance profile and held-up style fit the shape of the race well. His main dangers are Copper And Five, who has been banging on the door with multiple seconds this season, and Volenti, whose consistency and course placings make him a solid each-way contender, while Inspiring Speeches could take some catching out in front.
KTB Selection Trucial Pearl
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:06 UTC, 31 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Trucial Pearl | 7/2 | William Hill |
| Copper And Five | 11/2 | Midnite |
| Volenti | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Little Ted | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Inspiring Speeches | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Rogers Dream | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Due To Shine | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Princess Coco | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Top Gun Tina | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Twin And Tonic | 66/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ripon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to set the pace?
Inspiring Speeches tends to make the running or race on the pace and the pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Trucial Pearl, Copper And Five and Volenti are all stepping up in trip for the first time today or for the first time in a while.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Little Ted is wearing first-time headgear.
Which runner has the best jockey record at Ripon among the principals?
Oisin Orr has a 17% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.99 from 90 rides when riding Volenti.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ripon for the yard of the selection?
Michael & David Easterby have an 11% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.86 from 95 runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies