5:05 Roscommon
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Steeplechase at Roscommon brings together a competitive field of ten over an extended 2m5f146y on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all rated smart performers on their best days and the overall numbers suggesting a race where recent consistency and trip suitability will be decisive. With the selection carrying top billing on a Fit score of 67, the contest looks set to revolve around whether proven placers can capitalise on the predicted pace setup.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner likely to enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late. Chosen Shant is the only runner noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, so he should be able to dictate matters without serious pressure. The remainder of the field, including the top two in the KTB rankings, are all held-up types who produce their effort late, raising the key question of whether they can bridge the gap to a horse given an easy time up front on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Jolie Jewel KTB Selection67/100
Jolie Jewel arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit score of 67 and is a smart performer who has been knocking on the door of late. She has three placed efforts from her last four starts and drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before. She also boasts a win and six places from twelve runs on good ground. The Brian M McMahon yard strikes at 16% at Roscommon from 31 runs with an A/E of 1.84, while James Smith has an 8% strike rate at the track from 12 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has no previous course form on record.
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2Nastya65/100
Nastya is rated a smart performer with a solid career record that includes two wins on good ground from six starts and carries a KTB Fit score of 65. She has been pulled up on both starts this season and now tries first-time headgear while stepping back up in trip having failed to handle this distance on her only previous attempt. Henry de Bromhead holds an 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 175 runs with an A/E of 0.98, and Darragh O'Keeffe operates at 11% from 96 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has no course form on record.
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3Chosen Shant64/100
Chosen Shant is a useful performer with a KTB Fit score of 64 who has shown a mixed bag lately, registering a win and two placed efforts among his last six runs. He has run respectably without winning over this course in the past, recording a seventh and a fourth from two visits, and his trainer holds a 15% strike rate at Roscommon from 20 runs with an A/E of 2.14. Phillip Enright has a 9% strike rate at the track from 170 rides with an A/E of 1.1. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while he handles good ground well enough with two wins from 14 starts.
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4Bynx53/100
Bynx is another smart performer with a solid career record and a KTB Fit score of 53 who steps up in trip today having last run over 2m2f. He has three wins from 17 starts on good ground and the jockey Sean Flanagan holds a 9% strike rate from 141 rides at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.84. The Martin Hassett yard is 0% from eight runs at the track with an A/E of 0. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record.
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5Neon Diamond53/100
Neon Diamond is a smart performer who has been consistent at a decent level but was pulled up on his latest start after a spell off, arriving with a KTB Fit score of 53. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried once without success while his record on good ground is modest with no placed efforts from three runs. Gordon Elliott has a solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon from 299 runs with an A/E of 0.97, though Sam Ewing is operating at a lower 5% from 42 rides with an A/E of 0.43. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record.
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6Ladies Well52/100
Ladies Well is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with two wins and a second from her last four completed starts and a KTB Fit score of 52. She has placed on her only previous visit to Roscommon and handles good ground well with two wins and three places from six runs, though dropping back in trip today raises a question while she is proven at the distance without having won at it.
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7Shannon Bank50/100
Shannon Bank is a useful performer who has won two of his last four starts and arrives in decent form with a KTB Fit score of 50. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a new question, while he has never placed in six runs on good ground. The trainer holds a solid 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 17 runs with an A/E of 1.48 but the jockey's strike rate here is a modest 5% from 41 rides with an A/E of 0.43.
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8Ad Caelum50/100
Ad Caelum is a useful performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of two pulled-up efforts with a KTB Fit score of 50. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow in four previous tries at this distance while the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Roscommon from 107 runs with an A/E of 0.39 adds a note of caution. The jockey has a solid 8% record here from a small sample of 12 rides with an A/E of 0.99 and the horse handles good ground well enough with three wins from 15 starts.
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9Beauforts Storm48/100
Beauforts Storm is a smart performer on his best days and arrives in reasonable form having placed twice from his last six starts with a KTB Fit score of 48. He has won once from 13 runs on good ground and steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate from 195 runs at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.33 while the jockey is 0-15 here and first-time headgear is now fitted.
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10Miss Lia34/100
Miss Lia is a fair mare who has shown some ability at this trip but has been out of form for most of this year with a KTB Fit score of 34. She has no win or place from six runs on good ground and only a modest fourth on her sole previous visit to Roscommon. The trainer's poor 4% strike rate from 220 runs here with an A/E of 0.5 and the jockey's 6% record from 16 rides with an A/E of 0.55 add further negatives.
KTB verdict
Jolie Jewel stands out as the KTB selection on a Fit score of 67 and looks to have the best blend of recent placed form and good-ground proficiency. A smart performer who has been knocking on the door, she is well placed to capitalise if the predicted lone leader sets up a race that plays into the hands of those coming from off the pace. Nastya, Chosen Shant and the other principals all bring solid claims on their best days, but the selection's consistency of late and the trainer's strong record at Roscommon make her the one to beat in what remains a competitive heat.
KTB Selection Jolie Jewel
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Chosen Shant is the only front-runner in the field and should be able to dictate with little to pressure him given the lone leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals – Jolie Jewel, Nastya, Bynx and Neon Diamond – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon among those represented?
Andrew Kinirons has an 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 17 runs with an A/E of 1.48.
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time?
Both Nastya and Beauforts Storm are fitted with first-time headgear.
How many runners have previous placed form at Roscommon?
Chosen Shant has two course runs for a seventh and a fourth, while Ladies Well has a second and a tenth from two visits and Miss Lia has a fourth from one run.
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