5:12 Leopardstown
A competitive 16-runner handicap over 7f at Leopardstown on good ground looks set to be shaped by a clear pace advantage. The KTB numbers highlight a clutch of modest performers with solid course records, several of whom are dropping back in trip having contested races over a mile on their most recent starts. With the selection carrying a joint-top Fit rating of 65 alongside one other, the race revolves around whether any of the hold-up brigade can overcome the uncontested leader and land a telling blow late.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. The majority of the field, including all five principals, are hold-up types who will be produced with their efforts late, while only Queen Aethelflaed is likely to go forward. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if the bunch of held-up runners, well positioned to pounce off a strong gallop, can close the gap in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tachos KTB Selection65/100
Tachos is a modest performer with a solid Leopardstown record that includes two wins from eleven runs. He drops back to 7f today having been unsuccessful in three previous attempts at the trip and was last seen over a mile. The trainer has a 17% strike rate at the track from a huge sample of 3175 runs while the jockey is operating above expectations with an A/E of 1.69 from nine rides. With an OR of 70, a draw in stall 6 and recent form figures of 053103, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. The selection has the highest KTB Fit rating of 65 and looks to have the right profile for this contest.
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2Bay Of Dreams65/100
Bay Of Dreams is a modest performer who has shown better form at this track than his bare figures suggest, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He drops back from 1m today having failed to land a blow at this trip in two previous attempts, though he acts on good ground with two wins from eight starts. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Leopardstown, the trainer with a 9% strike rate and A/E of 1.43 from 69 runs, the jockey with a 15% strike rate and A/E of 1.43 from 33 rides. Carrying an OR of 67 from draw 8 with recent form figures of 009315, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. Joint top on KTB Fit at 65, he enters the reckoning as a major player.
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3Bella Colombia61/100
Bella Colombia is a modest performer who has won once in four runs at Leopardstown. She has shown better form over this trip on occasions but remains winless in eight attempts at the distance and her recent efforts have been mixed. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate here from a large sample of 385 runs while the jockey has a solid 12% record and A/E of 1.51 from 17 rides. With an OR of 71 from draw 13 and recent form figures of 311390, she is held up and usually produces her effort late. Rated 61 on KTB Fit, she remains capable on her best days at this venue.
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4Go Sioux Me56/100
Go Sioux Me is a modest performer who has shown fair form at this trip, winning once from three attempts. Recent form figures of 431/8 suggest some ability but also inconsistency, with the latest run looking below par. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.74 from 91 runs. Rated 73 on an OR from draw 3, he is usually held up though with limited evidence and low confidence in that run-style. On a KTB Fit of 56 he has something to prove but cannot be entirely dismissed if returning to his best.
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5Rosato56/100
Rosato is a modest performer with a patchy record and no win in 29 starts. He steps up from 6f to 7f today having failed to score in six previous attempts at the trip and has only placed once from seven runs on good ground. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.41 from 18 runs while the jockey has an 8% strike rate and A/E of 1.1 from 38 rides. Carrying an OR of 67 from draw 11 with recent form figures of 020941, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. With a KTB Fit of 56 he has plenty to find on balance.
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6Bear Right53/100
Bear Right is a modest performer who has been placed without winning on his last six starts and arrives in similar form after a string of consistent runs. He has been placed three times from three runs at Leopardstown and has also shown he can be competitive on good ground, with first-time headgear now fitted.
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7Zaraahmando51/100
Zaraahmando is a modest performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Leopardstown and arrives in decent form with three seconds from his last six runs. He drops back to 7f having won twice at the trip earlier in his career though he has looked more effective over a mile of late, and the claiming jockey is still seeking a first Leopardstown success from 15 rides.
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8Faoladh49/100
Faoladh is a modest performer who has won once from eight starts at this track and also has two wins from eight runs at this trip. Consistent enough on good ground with two wins and four places from ten starts, though the jockey is still seeking a first Leopardstown winner from eight rides.
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9Purely47/100
Purely is a modest performer who has shown little in five starts since a debut seventh at this track. He did manage to place over today's trip on his penultimate run but was well held in a similar race here last time from stall 10, with the trainer holding a solid 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from over 3000 runs.
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10Greek Flower46/100
Greek Flower is a modest performer who has been placed without winning over this trip and on this ground. She showed some ability when third on her only previous visit to Leopardstown and remains competitive on her best days.
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11Altimara46/100
Altimara is a modest performer who has won two of three starts at Leopardstown yet has been below that level for some time with a string of modest efforts. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track and the yard is struggling for winners overall.
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12Bundle Of Interest46/100
Bundle Of Interest is a modest performer who has been on the go for a while now and has not won for a long time. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip earlier in his career though he was well held over 1m last time, with both trainer and jockey holding modest records at Leopardstown.
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13Green Kite43/100
Green Kite is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He did finish second on his only previous run at Leopardstown and has placed twice at today's trip, though he steps up in distance for the first time since early in his career.
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14Montevetro42/100
Montevetro is a limited horse who has shown mixed form across six runs, with a best of second on debut but two poor efforts on his last two starts. He drops back from a mile to 7f today, which asks a fresh question of him.
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15Queen Aethelflaed41/100
Queen Aethelflaed is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third and fourth from two runs here. She drops back to 7f having been placed once at the trip without winning, though she has failed to place in four runs on good ground and the jockey is still seeking a first winner from five rides at the track.
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16Gegenpressing36/100
Gegenpressing is a limited performer who has been out of form for most of this year. He has shown little at this track in two runs and the yard has a poor 0% strike rate from 61 runs here, while he steps up to 7f having won at the trip before.
KTB verdict
Tachos is the KTB Selection and arrives with the strongest blend of course record and current rating among the principals. His two wins from eleven starts at Leopardstown, combined with the trainer's healthy 17% strike rate at the venue and the jockey's above-par A/E, give him a clear edge on the numbers. The uncontested lead should set up a strong pace for hold-up performers like him to aim at, though Bay Of Dreams, who has shown better than his figures at the track, and Bella Colombia, a previous course winner, are the most obvious dangers if they can time their runs effectively.
KTB Selection Tachos
This is the narrative read of the 5:12 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the pace shape described as a lone leader with high confidence?
The supplied pace shape states lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and likely an uncontested lead.
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Queen Aethelflaed is the only runner described as a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are described as held up, with Go Sioux Me having limited evidence and low confidence in that run-style.
Which horses have previous wins at Leopardstown?
Tachos has won here (2 from 11), Bella Colombia has won here (1 from 4), Faoladh has won here (1 from 8) and Altimara has won here (2 from 3).
What is the best Leopardstown trainer strike rate among those supplied?
Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3013 runs.
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