5:30 Bath
A competitive Class 5 handicap division at Bath over a mile on good ground brings together ten modest performers, several with previous experience at the track. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Sant Alessio at 58, with Port Erin, Rating, Oviedo and Blue Hero all within eight points, suggesting a race where course knowledge, recent form and how the strong pace unfolds will prove decisive. Multiple runners step up or down in class while several hold-up types are present, adding layers to a contest that looks likely to place a premium on stamina and positioning.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners confirmed and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a solid tempo from early on. Sant Alessio and Port Erin both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a genuine test. This shape is likely to favour those held up off the pace who can come through late as the leaders potentially tire in the closing stages, posing the key question of whether any prominent runner can dictate and hold on or if the hold-up brigade will sweep past.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sant Alessio KTB Selection58/100
Sant Alessio is a modest performer who has won once here from three runs at Bath and has also scored at this trip. His recent form figures of 21-074 show patchy efforts yet he showed he can still be competitive on good ground last season. The five-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, which will see him to the fore in a race with a strong pace likely. Trainer Joe Tickle has a 13% strike rate at Bath from 87 runs with an A/E of 1.02 while jockey Taylor Fisher posts a 12% strike rate from 133 rides here with an A/E of 0.9. Both hold solid records at the track without setting the place alight and the selection arrives with an official rating that keeps him competitive.
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2Port Erin57/100
Port Erin is a modest performer who has won seven times at this trip from 22 attempts and handles good ground well with two wins and two places from six runs. Recent form has been ordinary with figures of 9-0857 yet he arrives with a solid career record and proven stamina for the distance. The six-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, ensuring he will be prominent as the strong pace materialises. Trainer Tony Carroll has an 11% strike rate at Bath from a large sample of 867 runs with an A/E of 1.01 while jockey Jack Doughty records a 15% strike rate from 86 rides here with an A/E of 1.01. Dropping in class looks a positive and he should be involved if the leaders do not collapse too dramatically.
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3Rating55/100
Rating is a modest performer who has won once at this track from six runs and twice at today's trip from 13 attempts. He has been placed five times from nine starts on good ground and arrives in reasonable form after a recent win, with figures of 553518. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, which could be ideal given the strong pace expected to collapse. Trainer Grace Harris has a 9% strike rate at Bath from 307 runs with an A/E of 0.91 while jockey Ashley Lewis posts a 14% strike rate from 37 rides here with an A/E of 0.87. Dropping in class adds to his appeal as one who could come home strongly.
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4Oviedo53/100
Oviedo is a modest performer who arrives in decent nick after two quick wins at a lower level, with recent form figures of 0-9911. He steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having already won twice at the trip and his record on good ground reads a solid two wins from six runs with three places. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, suiting the anticipated strong pace. Trainer Alexandra Dunn has a modest 6% strike rate at Bath from 65 runs with an A/E of 0.62 yet this is offset by jockey Millie Wonnacott's stronger 14% record from 43 rides here with an A/E of 1.24. Stepping up in class is the main concern but his current momentum cannot be ignored.
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5Blue Hero50/100
Blue Hero is a limited-class performer who has been in decent heart of late with form figures of 481212. He has a solid record at this track including nine wins from 32 runs and has also won on good ground and at this trip. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, which aligns well with a race where the pace is likely to be strong and could collapse. Trainer Adrian Wintle has a 15% strike rate at Bath from 271 runs with an A/E of 1.1 while jockey Finley Marsh records a 14% strike rate from 250 rides here with an A/E of 0.94. Stepping up in class is a factor yet his course form makes him a regular contender at this venue.
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6Footstepinthewoods46/100
Footstepinthewoods is a modest performer who has won once at this trip from four attempts. He has run only once at Bath when finishing sixth and has failed to place in four starts on good ground. The trainer and jockey both hold solid records here with strike rates of 11% and 15% respectively.
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7Tonal42/100
Tonal is a modest performer who has been in and out this year with three wins from 28 runs. He steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having won six times at the trip in the past though his recent efforts have mostly come over shorter. He has run only once at Bath when finishing fourth and both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
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8Risen Again39/100
Risen Again is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place on his last two starts but has never won in 26 runs. Only one previous visit to Bath brought an 11th-place finish while the yard's modest 6% strike-rate here offers little encouragement. He stays the trip and has handled good ground in the past.
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9Red Moon39/100
Red Moon is a limited performer who has shown very little since two early wins. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having been well held over 7f on his last two starts, and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Bath from 47 runs while the jockey's 8% from 143 rides is about as expected.
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10Denby's Dream39/100
Denby's Dream is a modest performer who has run creditably at this track, finishing second here last time out. He has won over today's trip but his overall strike-rate is modest and the yard are struggling at Bath with a 0% strike-rate from five runners. Jockey Nicola Currie has a solid 9% strike-rate here from 170 rides.
KTB verdict
Sant Alessio is the KTB Selection. He brings previous winning form at the track and at the trip, a front-running style that will see him set the pace in a strongly-run race, and a trainer-jockey combination with solid if unspectacular Bath records. His ability to be competitive on good ground last season keeps him of interest despite patchy recent form. The main dangers are Port Erin, who has a strong record at the trip and good-ground form plus prominent running style, and Rating, who is in reasonable nick, drops in class and is ideally suited by the hold-up style against the expected pace collapse. Oviedo and Blue Hero, both in form and with hold-up run styles, add further depth to what looks an open contest.
KTB Selection Sant Alessio
This is the narrative read of the 5:30 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Sant Alessio and Port Erin both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Blue Hero recorded at Bath?
Nine wins from 32 runs.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Red Moon.
What is the KTB Fit score for the selection Sant Alessio?
58/100.
Which horse has won once at this track from six runs?
Rating.
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