Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.40).
Deterministic profile computed from 271 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
The read
It is weakest at Enghien (FR) (4.8% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.48). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 8.6% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.20 and +75.30 to a £1 stake over 116 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 2% over 50 runners, 6.9pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Grande Course de Haies de Printemps Handicap) at Auteuil (FR) (May 2014, £58,125).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.6%−0.3
n=116 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +75.30
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
6%−2.9
n=50 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −31.60
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.3%−2.6
n=16 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −12.60
When favourite
40%
n=10 · A/E 1.75 · £1 +4.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12%+3.1
n=25 · A/E 2.69 · £1 +16.80
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
2%−6.9
n=50 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −42.60
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 12% vs 8.9% · n=50
In Group / Graded races2% vs 8.9% · n=50
With Alban Desvaux3.2% vs 8.9% · n=31
In Hurdle races5% vs 8.9% · n=120
At Enghien (FR)4.8% vs 8.9% · n=42
With horses switching code5% vs 8.9% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase1221310.7%+82.60
Hurdle12065%−59.70
Flat29517.2%+34.70
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft161116.8%+36.20
Heavy79911.4%−11.30
Standard (AW)19421.1%+39.70
Good500%−3.00
Good to Soft400%−3.00
Good to Firm100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)173137.5%−0.40
Enghien (FR)4224.8%+5.00
Deauville (FR)1317.7%+7.10
Angers6116.7%−3.00
Chantilly (FR)6350%+32.60
Nantes300%−3.00
Clairefontaine300%−2.00
Dieppe (FR)300%−3.00
Saint-Brieuc3133.3%+7.20
Meslay-Du-Maine3133.3%+3.10
Saint-Malo (FR)200%−2.00
Saumur200%—
Corlay100%—
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 15012%−42.60
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11436.4%1.60+3.50
2nd–3rd fav33618.2%0.86+19.60
4th–6th fav44511.4%1.50+4.60
7th+ in betting15974.4%1.67+29.90
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f150117.3%+17.80
2m5f – 3m8989%+22.20
1m2f – 1m4f1218.3%−10.00
1m5f – 2m11436.4%+33.60
Over 3m500%−2.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081218.3%—
2009100%—
20102229.1%−15.00
20112114.8%−10.50
20121317.7%−6.90
201328414.3%+43.50
201439615.4%+50.70
20153412.9%−30.30
20162500%−25.00
20171616.3%+9.50
201814321.4%+19.30
201919315.8%+23.40
20201000%−10.00
2021300%−3.00
2022400%−4.00
202310110%+15.90
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps981414.3%+119.90
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners69811.6%+76.70
11-13 runners6334.8%−44.30
8-10 runners5635.4%+3.20
17+ runners4249.5%+2.70
2-4 runners26415.4%+22.20
5-7 runners15213.3%−2.90
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 59 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 59 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from F-X De Chevigny (2); 54 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
50842011100038620
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
29
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£1.36m
Prize money
2014
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Plumeur (FR) — Grande Course de Haies de Printemps (Hurdle) Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · May 2014 · Grade 3
£58,125
Jerico Vallis (FR) — Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre (Chase) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2005 · Grade 3
£44,681
Quat'Car (FR) — Prix De La Rochelle (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Enghien (FR) · Apr 2014
Progeny have won 14.4% of 360 runs since 2012 (32 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 17.8% from 135.
Great Pretender (IRE)8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,550 runs since 2010 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 151.
Le Balafre (FR)5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 13.4% of 411 runs since 2008 (70 horses).
Kapgarde (FR)22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,631 runs since 2008 (725 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 294 · newest first
The latest 50 of 294 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 March 2005 to 12 November 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is G Chaignon's strike rate?
G Chaignon has won 24 of 271 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does G Chaignon do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 13 wins from 173 runners (7.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is G Chaignon's Fair A/E?
1.40, from 236 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
G Chaignon·SR 8.9%·A/E 1.40
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