Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (41 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 148 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 7.3%
The read
The yard also reads well in Chase races (9.7%, n=62) and on Soft going (9.1%, n=55). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 0% over 62 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.3%+2.6
n=41 · A/E 2.00 · £1 −6.67
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.7
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.8%−2.9
n=57 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −52.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races9.7% vs 4.7% · n=62
In Hurdle races0% vs 4.7% · n=62
On Soft going9.1% vs 4.7% · n=55
With Jordan Nailor0% vs 4.7% · n=34
With claiming riders up1.8% vs 4.7% · n=57
With a new jockey booking1.9% vs 4.7% · n=54
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase6269.7%−4.67
Hurdle6200%−62.00
NH Flat2414.2%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5559.1%+16.50
Good4924.1%−40.17
Good to Soft2400%−24.00
Heavy1000%−10.00
Good to Firm800%−8.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Towcester3226.3%−14.50
Warwick1700%−17.00
Leicester1317.7%−8.67
Huntingdon1119.1%+12.00
Chepstow9111.1%+12.00
Market Rasen800%−8.00
Ludlow700%−7.00
Uttoxeter7114.3%+0.50
Hereford600%−6.00
Southwell500%−5.00
Worcester400%−4.00
Cheltenham300%−3.00
Newbury300%−3.00
Bangor-on-Dee3133.3%+4.00
Ffos Las200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 46734.5%−42.50
Class 56234.8%−29.17
Class 3800%−8.00
Class 66116.7%+17.00
Class 1500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav16318.8%1.14−0.17
4th–6th fav3126.5%0.96−10.50
7th+ in betting9722.1%1.06−53.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m4936.1%−30.00
1m5f – 2m4424.5%−8.00
2m1f – 2m4f4412.3%−39.67
Over 3m1119.1%+10.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008300%−3.00
20091218.3%−7.50
201010220%+7.33
20111100%−11.00
2012900%−9.00
201310110%+13.00
2014900%−9.00
20151600%−16.00
2016700%−7.00
2017300%−3.00
20181800%−18.00
201920315%+15.50
20201400%−14.00
2021500%−5.00
2022100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps8456%−31.17
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners5535.5%−30.00
11-13 runners3700%−37.00
14-16 runners2827.1%+16.00
5-7 runners2015%−13.00
2-4 runners5120%−0.67
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
60100000002045
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
8
Archived wins
£48,556
Prize money
2019
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Onurbike (GB) — Follow Timeform's 50 For The Jumps Handicap Chase Bangor-on-Dee · Oct 2019 · Class 4
£4,614
Irish Guard (GB) — Sponsor A Race at racesponsors.co.uk Beginners' Chase Towcester · Mar 2009 · Class 4
£4,228
Irish Guard (GB) — gg-casino Maiden Hurdle Towcester · May 2006 · Class 4
Progeny have won 7.9% of 1,948 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 178. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.1% from 257.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 155 · newest first
The latest 50 of 155 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 February 2006 to 24 February 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John O'Neill's strike rate?
John O'Neill has won 7 of 148 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John O'Neill do best at?
Towcester by strike rate: 2 wins from 32 runners (6.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is John O'Neill's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 148 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John O'Neill·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.94
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