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Trainer profile

Julian Smith

476 runners in the lifetime window · 39 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 152 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
34–476
Wins / Runs
7.1%
Strike rate
n=476
110 (23%)
Placed
0.97
Fair A/E
n=475 · 0.84 incl. margin
−67.29
£1 level stake
n=476 at SP · −14.1%
£315k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 476 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun Mark Grant: 7.5% from 133 Claiming riders: 8.3%
The read

The record is strongest at Market Rasen (25.6%, n=43), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 8.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.17 and +41.00 to a £1 stake over 109 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.77 and −71.99 to a £1 stake over 188 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mark Grant rides 28% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.5%, A/E 1.24) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 3 (15.3%, n=72) and off a 15-30-day break (10.4%, n=135). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 1.8% over 57 runners, 5.3pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Emerald Rose (GB) — 7 wins from 43 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.8%−2.3
n=188 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −71.99
New recruits · first run for the yard
20%+12.9
n=10 · A/E 3.00 · £1 +26.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.1
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5.9%−1.2
n=17 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −12.67
When favourite
28.6%
n=14 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −1.12
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%+1.2
n=109 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +41.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Market Rasen 25.6% vs 7.1% · n=43
In Class 3 15.3% vs 7.1% · n=72
With C&D winners 15.6% vs 7.1% · n=45
Over 1m5f – 2m 1.8% vs 7.1% · n=57
With Sam Twiston-Davies 11.4% vs 7.1% · n=44
Off a 15-30-day break 10.4% vs 7.1% · n=135
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 233 14 6% −53.62
Chase 209 19 9.1% −46.67
NH Flat 34 1 2.9% +33.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 194 18 9.3% +15.96
Good to Soft 124 7 5.6% −53.75
Soft 105 8 7.6% +20.62
Good to Firm 30 1 3.3% −27.12
Heavy 23 0 0% −23.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen 43 11 25.6% +60.13
Worcester 38 4 10.5% +13.00
Bangor-on-Dee 34 1 2.9% −26.00
Uttoxeter 29 1 3.4% +38.00
Ludlow 28 2 7.1% +19.00
Southwell 26 0 0% −26.00
Fakenham 26 6 23.1% +33.58
Taunton 23 0 0% −23.00
Hereford 23 0 0% −23.00
Newton Abbot 19 2 10.5% −6.50
Chepstow 19 0 0% −19.00
Wincanton 17 1 5.9% −8.00
Ffos Las 14 0 0% −14.00
Huntingdon 14 0 0% −14.00
Plumpton 14 0 0% −14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 204 14 6.9% −56.50
Class 4 179 8 4.5% −74.87
Class 3 72 11 15.3% +18.08
Class 6 15 1 6.7% +52.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 18 4 22.2% 0.91 −5.12
2nd–3rd fav 71 10 14.1% 0.86 −18.67
4th–6th fav 143 10 7% 0.87 −67.50
7th+ in betting 244 10 4.1% 1.33 +24.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
78.1% completed · 442 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 209 74.6% 3 4 45 0 1
Hurdle 233 81.1% 4 3 35 0 2
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Caro Des Flos (FR)from W P Mullins 46 4 13 4 Dec 25
Emerald Rose (GB) 43 7 19 7 May 19
Iona Days (IRE)from Henrietta C Knight 35 3 14 1 Jun 18
Diamond Rose (GB) 32 2 6 3 Jun 23
Petit Fleur (GB) 31 2 9 29 Mar 14
No Principles (GB) 25 3 7 1 Jan 16
Fine By Her (GB) 23 3 6 13 Nov 25
Pennies And Pounds (GB) 23 1 4 29 May 19
Fine By Me (IRE)from C Roche 21 4 6 25 Mar 11
Sailor's Sovereign (GB) 19 0 4 11 Jun 12
Harriet's Ark (GB) 14 0 1 1 Jun 16
Song Of Earth (IRE)from Ms Margaret Mullins 13 0 1 6 Jun 26
All 39 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 39 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C Roche (4) and Peter Bowen (2); 25 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
007611130220069
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMark Grant
28% of all rides
7.5% SR · A/E 1.24
RiderRWSR£1
Mark Grant 133 10 7.5% +4.08
Gerard Tumelty 74 4 5.4% +13.00
Sam Twiston-Davies 44 5 11.4% −12.37
Wayne Hutchinson 43 2 4.7% −11.38
Harry Bannister 37 4 10.8% −15.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
45
Archived wins
£412k
Prize money
2006
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Emerald Rose (GB) — Snellings Norfolk National Handicap Chase Fakenham · May 2018 · Class 3
£19,754
Glen Warrior (GB) — Novices' Handicap Chase Uttoxeter · Mar 2005 · Class 2
£12,447
Fine By Me (IRE) — Totesport 0800 221 221 Handicap Chase Warwick · Dec 2009 · Class 3
£11,090
Notable horses
Emerald Rose (GB) Fine By Me (IRE) Caro Des Flos (FR) Iona Days (IRE) Return Home (GB) No Principles (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Sir Harry Lewis (USA) 8.7% · 8–92
Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.
Tiger Groom (GB) 8.7% · 4–46
Progeny have won 10.3% of 680 runs since 2011 (81 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 122.
Epistolaire (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35
Progeny have won 8.8% of 114 runs since 2008 (14 horses).
Sagamix (FR) 6.3% · 2–32
Progeny have won 11.5% of 723 runs since 2008 (83 horses).
Sovereign Water (FR) 3.1% · 1–32
Progeny have won 11.3% of 292 runs since 2008 (34 horses).
Nomadic Way (USA) 6.5% · 2–31
Progeny have won 9.8% of 799 runs since 2008 (70 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 580 · newest first

The latest 50 of 580 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 January 2005 to 6 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Jun 26 Worcester Song Of Earth (IRE)J: Harry Bannister Law Without The Horsing Around Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 8th 16/1
31 May 26 Fakenham No But I Will (GB)J: Miss Jessica Milly Smith Prince Of Wales Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 11/1
24 May 26 Uttoxeter Dublin City (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Wrights Great British Bake Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 33/1
14 Apr 26 Market Rasen No But I Will (GB)J: Miss Jessica Milly Smith CopyBet Supporting UK Horse Racing Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 6th 7/1
21 Mar 26 Bangor-on-Dee Dublin City (IRE)J: Rex Dingle Wrexham Lager Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 10th 50/1
19 Mar 26 Sedgefield Song Of Earth (IRE)J: Harry Bannister Fairlight Studios Cafe At Sedgefield Racecourse Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 4th 10/1
17 Mar 26 Wetherby No But I Will (GB)J: Liam Harrison racingtv.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 14/1
14 Mar 26 Fontwell After Midnight (GB)J: Rex Dingle tigerbet.co.uk Extra Places Paid Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 28/1
07 Mar 26 Hereford Dublin City (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Download The Fairplay App Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 300/1
22 Dec 25 Huntingdon Song Of Earth (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings PricedUp Daily Racing Boosts Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 12/1
21 Dec 25 Fakenham No But I Will (GB)J: Miss Jessica Milly Smith Sky Bet Super Sub Female Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 21f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 6/1
20 Dec 25 Hereford After Midnight (GB)J: Liam Harrison tigerbet.co.uk New Betting Site Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25.5f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 80/1
04 Dec 25 Market Rasen Caro Des Flos (FR)J: Ben Jones Play On PricedUp Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 18/1
29 Nov 25 Bangor-on-Dee Dublin City (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Wrexham Lager Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 150/1
24 Nov 25 Ludlow After Midnight (GB)J: Liam Harrison Plyvine Catering Mares' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21f · Good · 10 ran 8th 40/1
22 Nov 25 Huntingdon Song Of Earth (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings PricedUp Daily Racing Boosts Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 40/1
13 Nov 25 Market Rasen Fine By Her (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Equisign Tack And Feeds Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 28/1
13 Nov 25 Market Rasen Caro Des Flos (FR)J: Harry Bannister Lincolnshire Rural Support Network Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 22/1
17 May 25 Bangor-on-Dee After Midnight (GB)J: Harry Bannister Fyrnwy Equine Clinic Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 9 ran 7th 66/1
02 Mar 25 Huntingdon Dublin City (IRE)J: Harry Bannister Vic Sweeney 80th Birthday Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 5th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Julian Smith's strike rate?
Julian Smith has won 34 of 476 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Julian Smith do best at?
Market Rasen by strike rate: 11 wins from 43 runners (25.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Julian Smith?
Mark Grant, with 133 runners since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (7.5%).
What is Julian Smith's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 475 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).