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Trainer profile

Padraig Butler

116 runners in the lifetime window · 14 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 11 days ago 98% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–116
Wins / Runs
10.3%
Strike rate
n=116
30 (26%)
Placed
1.35
Fair A/E
n=116 · 1.09 incl. margin
−48.87
£1 level stake
n=116 at SP · −42.1%
£141k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
13.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.35). With a claiming rider up the record reads 17% (66 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 116 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 16.7%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=66, Fair A/E 1.72). The record reads poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 7.1% over 42 runners, 3.2pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
21.1%+10.8
n=19 · A/E 3.06 · £1 +6.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.3
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
55.6%
n=9 · A/E 2.00 · £1 +5.13
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
16.7%+6.4
n=66 · A/E 1.72 · £1 −3.37
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.3
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up 16.7% vs 10.3% · n=66
With a new jockey booking 6.5% vs 10.3% · n=46
Over 2m5f – 3m 7.1% vs 10.3% · n=42
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 13.2% vs 10.3% · n=38
Off a 15-30-day break 13.2% vs 10.3% · n=38
On Soft going 7.8% vs 10.3% · n=51
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 66 6 9.1% −45.12
Chase 33 3 9.1% −14.25
NH Flat 15 3 20% +12.50
Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 51 4 7.8% −28.25
Heavy 29 5 17.2% −2.62
Good to Soft 19 2 10.5% −13.00
Good 17 1 5.9% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cork 16 2 12.5% −0.50
Punchestown 15 2 13.3% −10.50
Limerick 13 2 15.4% −2.50
Tramore 13 0 0% −13.00
Galway 11 1 9.1% −5.50
Killarney 9 2 22.2% +4.50
Wexford 7 1 14.3% −3.75
Listowel 5 0 0% −5.00
Tipperary 4 0 0% −4.00
Gowran Park 4 1 25% −1.62
Fairyhouse 3 1 33.3% +9.00
Naas 3 0 0% −3.00
Thurles 3 0 0% −3.00
Cheltenham 2 0 0% −2.00
Sligo 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 5 50% 1.86 +4.13
2nd–3rd fav 20 4 20% 1.39 +1.50
4th–6th fav 30 3 10% 1.45 +1.50
7th+ in betting 56 0 0% 0.00 −56.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
76.8% completed · 99 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 33 75.8% 1 0 7 0 0
Hurdle 66 77.3% 1 1 13 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Da Capo Glory (IRE) 27 4 12 25 Oct 26
James The Brave (IRE) 16 4 7 4 Oct 26
Nolans Rocco (IRE) 12 1 2 4 Oct 26
Fons Vivus (IRE) 12 1 2 31 Mar 23
Amburana (IRE) 11 0 1 14 Aug 26
Imperial Fox (IRE) 8 0 0 12 May 24
Hard Rain (IRE)from James Daniel Dullea · then Archie Watson 7 1 4 23 Nov 23
Streamhill (IRE)from Terence O'Brien 6 1 1 1 Nov 26
Pinkarizon (IRE)from Warren Greatrex 6 0 1 1 Nov 26
Black Fern (IRE) 3 0 0 1 Jan 25
Metersandmasks (IRE)from C Byrnes 3 0 0 10 Nov 24
Union Rock (IRE)from M F Morris 3 0 0 1 Jan 22
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 14 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 9 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
221017803314002400
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Mr D Allen 20 4 20% +3.38
Michael Kenneally 18 5 27.8% +7.25
Brian Hayes 15 0 0% −15.00
Phillip Enright 13 0 0% −13.00
J J Slevin 9 1 11.1% −4.50
Alan O'Sullivan 6 0 0% −6.00
Ms G M Dorgan 5 1 20% +7.00
Mike O'Connor 5 1 20% −3.00
Danny Mullins 5 0 0% −5.00
John Shinnick 4 0 0% −4.00
Tiernan Power Roche 2 0 0% −2.00
Liam McKenna 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
12
Archived wins
£141k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 5 wins
Da Capo Glory (IRE) — EASYFIX Handicap Hurdle Cork · Jan 2024
£12,980
James The Brave (IRE) — Tomcoole Farm Novice Handicap Chase Wexford · Apr 2026
£11,780
Da Capo Glory (IRE) — Oak Lodge Landscapes At Punchestown Hurdle Punchestown · Jun 2023
£10,325
Notable horses
Da Capo Glory (IRE) James The Brave (IRE) Nolans Rocco (IRE) Fons Vivus (IRE) Hard Rain (IRE) Streamhill (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fame And Glory (GB) 12.8% · 5–39
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,217 runs since 2016 (504 horses).
Shirocco (GER) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,203 runs since 2010 (927 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Dansant (GB) 25% · 4–16
Progeny have won 7.9% of 545 runs since 2014 (64 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.8% from 110.
Arcadio (GER) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,981 runs since 2011 (375 horses).
Imperial Monarch (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,588 runs since 2019 (172 horses).
Arizona (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 6.4% of 500 runs since 2024 (75 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 116 · newest first

The latest 50 of 116 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 March 2021 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Streamhill (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Paddy Power 'Did You Watch The Breeders Cup At All?' Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 7th 12/1
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Pinkarizon (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran PU 25/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Nolans Fair Day (IRE)J: Mr R Sugrue Tom Dempsey Flooring 4-Y-O Fillies (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 10/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Da Capo Glory (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Gerry Coyne Memorial Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 5th 7/2
10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Streamhill (IRE)J: Ms G M Dorgan Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Nolans Rocco (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Killarney Races Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 10th 12/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) James The Brave (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Gleneagle Group Handicap Hurdle23f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 1st 3/1F
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Streamhill (IRE)J: Ms G M Dorgan Shanahan Power Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 7th 125/1
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Streamhill (IRE)J: Ms G M Dorgan Kenny Developments Irish EBF Mares Flat Race16.5f · Soft · 18 ran 10th 18/1
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Nolans Rocco (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally BOYLE Sports Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 12/1
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Amburana (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase22f · Good · 13 ran PU 7/1
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Pinkarizon (IRE)J: Liam McKenna McDonald & Son Builders Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 300/1
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Pinkarizon (IRE)J: Liam McKenna Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 18 ran PU 300/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Pinkarizon (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Kilmore Quay (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 300/1
22 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Amburana (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Racing Again Tomorrow 23rd July Family Day Handicap Steeplechase24.5f · Good · 15 ran 4th 11/1
10 Jul 26 Cork Da Capo Glory (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan RBC Brewin Dolphin Hurdle24f · Good · 9 ran 5th 17/2
10 Jul 26 Cork Pinkarizon (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Ashgrove Renewables Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 14 ran PU 150/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Streamhill (IRE)J: Ms G M Dorgan Midlands National On 10th July (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 5th 7/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown Da Capo Glory (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Ladbrokes 'Insure Your Acca On Football' Beginners Chase25f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 2nd 7/2
30 May 26 Listowel Pinkarizon (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Join The Listowel Races Supporters Club Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 17 ran PU 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 1) · to 25 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Padraig Butler's strike rate?
Padraig Butler has won 12 of 116 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Padraig Butler in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Padraig Butler's Fair A/E?
1.35, from 116 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).