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Trainer profile

Patrick Rodford

147 runners in the lifetime window · 24 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2011 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
22–147
Wins / Runs
15%
Strike rate
n=147
47 (32%)
Placed
1.88
Fair A/E
n=147 · 1.64 incl. margin
+87.73
£1 level stake
n=147 at SP · +59.7%
£199k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10.8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.88).

Deterministic profile computed from 147 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Keiran Burke: 16% from 125 Claiming riders: 15.4%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8.8% (n=34, Fair A/E 1.49). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 15.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.99 and +93.85 to a £1 stake over 130 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Keiran Burke rode 85% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (16%, A/E 2.01) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well on Good to Soft going (21.9%, n=32) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (20.9%, n=43). The market has also underrated the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 1.50 across 53 runners (11.3% strike, +51.50 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 11.1% over 36 runners, 3.9pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Holmwood Legend (GB) — 6 wins from 19 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.8%−6.2
n=34 · A/E 1.49 · £1 −2.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−15.0
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
22.2%+7.2
n=9 · A/E 3.67 · £1 +4.10
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−15.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.0
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
50%
n=8 · A/E 1.73 · £1 +2.73
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
15.4%+0.4
n=130 · A/E 1.99 · £1 +93.85
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−15.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 21.9% vs 15% · n=32
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 20.9% vs 15% · n=43
With a new jockey booking 9.1% vs 15% · n=33
On Good going 11.3% vs 15% · n=53
Over 1m5f – 2m 11.1% vs 15% · n=36
In Class 5 11.4% vs 15% · n=44
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 80 12 15% +48.63
Hurdle 53 8 15.1% +40.00
NH Flat 14 2 14.3% −0.90

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 53 6 11.3% +51.50
Good to Soft 32 7 21.9% +13.25
Good to Firm 28 3 10.7% −1.90
Soft 24 5 20.8% +25.88
Heavy 8 1 12.5% +1.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot 33 5 15.2% +26.50
Wincanton 29 3 10.3% +13.50
Taunton 26 5 19.2% −1.77
Fontwell 9 2 22.2% +24.00
Worcester 7 1 14.3% +0.00
Cheltenham 7 1 14.3% +19.00
Exeter 5 0 0% −5.00
Ludlow 5 1 20% +3.50
Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00
Chepstow 3 0 0% −3.00
Ffos Las 3 0 0% −3.00
Hereford 3 0 0% −3.00
Towcester 2 0 0% −2.00
Sandown 2 1 50% +13.00
Kempton 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 71 11 15.5% +39.13
Class 5 44 5 11.4% +6.60
Class 3 17 3 17.6% +12.00
Class 1 6 2 33.3% +28.00
Class 6 6 1 16.7% +5.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 4 33.3% 1.22 −1.27
2nd–3rd fav 26 6 23.1% 1.61 +18.00
4th–6th fav 45 8 17.8% 2.59 +60.00
7th+ in betting 64 4 6.3% 2.50 +11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.7% completed · 133 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 80 76.3% 5 1 13 0 0
Hurdle 53 92.5% 0 1 3 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Outside Investor (IRE) 26 3 8 25 Nov 10
Kirbys Glen (IRE)then Keiran Burke 21 1 5 12 Apr 11
Holmwood Legend (GB)from Miss C J Williams · then Keiran Burke 19 6 11 13 Apr 11
Beechwood (GB) 11 2 3 20 Aug 09
Sparky May (GB)then Keiran Burke 10 4 8 8 Apr 11
Gotontheluckyone (IRE)from Timothy Doyle 8 1 1 2 Dec 08
Cashel Blue (USA)from R H & Mrs S Alner 7 1 3 5 May 11
Tenitemsplustoast (GB)then Keiran Burke 6 0 0 10 Apr 11
Tim Henry (IRE) 6 1 3 11 May 10
Reymysterio (IRE)from N W Padfield · then Keiran Burke 5 0 0 21 Apr 11
Inca Cave (IRE)then Bob Buckler 4 0 0 10 Mar 11
Knightsbridge Hill (IRE)from Gordon Edwards 3 0 0 5 Jul 10
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 24 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Keiran Burke (7); 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
221315061025105038360
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderKeiran Burke
85% of all rides
16% SR · A/E 2.01
RiderRWSR£1
Keiran Burke 125 20 16% +95.85
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
30
Archived wins
£256k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 11 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Holmwood Legend (GB) — Byrne Group Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) Cheltenham · Mar 2011 · Class 1
£42,758
Sparky May (GB) — 1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares' Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares' Hurdle) (Grade 2) Ascot · Jan 2011 · Class 1
£22,804
Sparky May (GB) — E.B.F. Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Newbury · Nov 2010 · Class 3
£6,505
Notable horses
Holmwood Legend (GB) Outside Investor (IRE) Beechwood (GB) Sparky May (GB) Treasulier (IRE) Buck Magic (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Midnight Legend (GB) 28.6% · 10–35
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Cadeaux Genereux (GB) 11.5% · 3–26
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,919 runs since 2008 (203 horses).
Charente River (IRE) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 6.6% of 213 runs since 2008 (18 horses).
Fraam (GB) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,027 runs since 2008 (136 horses).
Eagle Eyed (USA) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 4.6% of 152 runs since 2008 (17 horses).
Aljabr (USA) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 12.5% of 417 runs since 2008 (26 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.8% from 114. Weakest on Good going: 8.3% from 108. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.9% from 118.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 324 · newest first

The latest 50 of 324 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 15 June 2011.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
15 Jun 11 Worcester Insured (GB)J: Liam Heard Swansea Bay Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 50/1
14 Jun 11 Newton Abbot Shared Secret (GB)J: Timmy Murphy Silent Whistle Ashburton Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 8th 25/1
06 Jun 11 Newton Abbot Shared Secret (GB)J: Timmy Murphy At The Races Sky 415 Novices' HurdleClass 3 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 7th 80/1
05 May 11 Wincanton Cashel Blue (USA)J: Liam Heard Holbrook House Restaurant & Spa Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25f · Firm · 3 ran 2nd 11/8J
04 May 11 Cheltenham Kericho (GB)J: Mr R G Henderson Cheltenham Racecourse Conference And Events Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 8th 100/1
21 Apr 11 Wincanton Reymysterio (IRE)J: Keiran Burke Red Ruby Devons Birthday Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 25f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 2nd 11/2
13 Apr 11 Cheltenham Hunt Ball (IRE)J: Keiran Burke Squareintheair.com Novices' ChaseClass 2 · 25.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 100/1
13 Apr 11 Cheltenham Holmwood Legend (GB)J: Keiran Burke Masterson Holdings Silver Trophy Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 4/1
12 Apr 11 Taunton Kirbys Glen (IRE)J: Keiran Burke Bet On Live Sport At Totesport.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 18f · Firm · 6 ran 2nd 3/1
11 Apr 11 Ffos Las Reymysterio (IRE)J: Keiran Burke Thelindleygroup.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 20/1
11 Apr 11 Ffos Las Kericho (GB)J: Keiran Burke Lindley Heritage Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran PU 50/1
10 Apr 11 Wincanton Tenitemsplustoast (GB)J: Liam Heard Bathwick Tyres Yeovil 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 6th 50/1
08 Apr 11 Aintree Sparky May (GB)J: Keiran Burke John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)Class 1 · 24.5f · Good · 19 ran 3rd 4/1F
29 Mar 11 Taunton Cashel Blue (USA)J: Keiran Burke Taunton Jaguar Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 34.5f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 85/40F
17 Mar 11 Cheltenham Holmwood Legend (GB)J: Keiran Burke Byrne Group Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 20 ran 1st 25/1
15 Mar 11 Cheltenham Sparky May (GB)J: Keiran Burke David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2)Class 1 · 20f · Good · 14 ran 2nd 4/1
14 Mar 11 Taunton Kirbys Glen (IRE)J: Keiran Burke Lewis Raven - 90th Birthday Celebration Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 18f · Good · 5 ran F 11/4J
12 Mar 11 Sandown Holmwood Legend (GB)J: Keiran Burke paddypower.com Money Back Specials At Cheltenham Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 1st 14/1
11 Mar 11 Wincanton Reymysterio (IRE)J: Keiran Burke Kingwell Restaurant Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 33/1
10 Mar 11 Wincanton Tenitemsplustoast (GB)J: Liam Heard Betfair iPhone & Android App Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Rodford's strike rate?
Patrick Rodford has won 22 of 147 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Rodford do best at?
Newton Abbot by strike rate: 5 wins from 33 runners (15.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick Rodford?
Keiran Burke, with 125 runners since 2008 — 85% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (16%).
What is Patrick Rodford's Fair A/E?
1.88, from 147 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).